PS4 Q1

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University of Texas, Dallas *

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6301

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Finance

Date

Jan 9, 2024

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docx

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2

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After the market closed on July 27, Google announced earnings of $4.5 per share in the last quarter. As a result, Google’s stock price closed at $136 on July 28. Currently Google’s quarterly earnings growth is 4.9%. Apparently, investors are bidding up the price on the assumption that Google’s market value will exceed that of Microsoft in 2 years. Google’s expected return is 1.3 times of that of Microsoft. Under this assumption, answer the following questions. 1. (a) Currently Microsoft is traded at $320 per share, with last quarter’s earnings of $9.20 per share. Suppose Microsoft pays out 20% of its earning as dividend, and its quarterly earnings growth rate is 3%, what are the expected returns for each company? Microsoft: R=D 1 /P 0 +g, D 1 =D 0 (1+g) 20%*$9.20(1+3%)/$320 +3%=3.59% Google: Since Google’s expected return is 1.3 times of that of Microsoft 3.59% * 1.3 =4.67% 2. (b) There are 8 Billion shares outstanding for Microsoft. Before earning announcement, investors were expecting Google to have the same total earning (who has 14 billion shares outstanding) in 3 years as that of Microsoft at that time. What was the market expecting for Google’s earning on July 27? Was Google’s stock price higher than $136 on July 27 before closing? Expecting earning for Microsoft: $9.20*$8* (1+3%) 12 =$104.94 As investors were expecting Google to have the same total earning in 3 years as that of Microsoft, therefore the expecting earning for Google is: $104.94/$14*(1+4.9%) 12 =$4.40 per quarter, which means that Google exceed the earning expectation by 2.27% ($4.5/$4.4-1=0.0227), if in the case of the market is efficient, Google’s price on July 27 should be lower than before closing. 3. (c) Google has decided to pay out 10% of its earnings starting next quarter for the next 2 years. Since the retained earnings drop, the growth rate will reduce to 4.4% per quarter. After that Google will pay out 20% of its earnings as dividends. Consequently, earning growth will further slow down to 4.0% per quarter forever. What should be the dividend next quarter and dividends in the first quarter in year 2 (in the 9th quarter))?
At 10% payout ratio: D 1 : 10%*$4.5*(1+4.4%)=$0.4698 At 20% payout ratio: D 9 : 20%* $4.5*(1+4.4%) 8 *(1+4.0%)=$1.3209 4. (d) What should be Google’s stock price, if they adopt the dividend policy? [hint: although we have different assumptions, the expected returns remain the same] Is Google undervalued? As we already calculated the D 1 and D 9 , we can use two stages model to compute the price for Google: D 1 /r-g 1 [1-(1+g 1 ) 8 /(1+r) 8 ]+1/(1+r) 8 D 9 / r-g 2 $0.4698/4.67%-4.4%[1-(1+4.4%) 8 /(1+4.67%) 8 ] +1/(1+4.67%) 8 $1.3209/4.67%-4.0%=$140.40, which is greater than stock price $136 after the earning announced, Google is underpriced.
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