MANGT 597 Project Risk Management Homework 1

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MANGT 597 Project Rick Management HW – 01 Richard Lewis Question 1. Issue 1.1 in Module 1.1 introduces two philosophical viewpoints on uncertainty: Deterministic vs. Stochastic. Which viewpoint do you think better explains the uncertainties commonly observed in project management? Select one and explain why. When we look at two different types of uncertainty, we can see the viewpoint of deterministic view also known as the “ignorance or lack of information” ( “1.1 What is Uncertainty?” , 2024) or the stochastic (probabilistic) view as known as “Ultimately random” ( “1.1 What is Uncertainty?” , 2024) viewpoint. When we look to understand how project management works on projects either are a possible option. With that being said, we can say that depending on the type of project work, the complexity, or the versatility of each project, we can determine the uncertainty can be different based on project and teams. So, let’s take my previous team as an example, the team has known how to implement policy projects into the system and has done so over the past few years. Initially, the team would experience more of a deterministic uncertainty due to never working on a project or with working on new technology that requires integration with other systems. Where now the team would now have more of a stochastic viewpoint. So given the current structure of my team and the consistency of the work that the team does, we would currently have stochastic uncertainties that would happen. This is because they are only going to have a very minimal risk of uncertainty happening. Question 2. Module 1.3 discusses two typical types (sources) of uncertainty: Aleatory (variability) uncertainty and epistemic (ambiguity) uncertainty. Which of the two sources of uncertainty better explains the uncertainties or risks commonly observed in project management? Select one and explain why. When we understand what Aleatory or variability uncertainty is, we see these to be uncertainties that are “ nature-controlled” ( “1.3 Different Types of Uncertainty”, 2024) or as an uncertainty that is “mostly out of man-made interruptions or control” ( “1.3 Different Types of Uncertainty”, 2024). On the other hand, epistemic or ambiguity uncertainty which is where “uncertainty arises due to a lack of information, data, or relevant knowledge” ( “1.3 Different Types of Uncertainty”, 2024). With the understanding of project management risk, we would typically see that there is epistemic perspective in my experience of the insurance industry from project management. This is specifically when we are understanding the difference between the breadth and depth of knowledge. Breadth means having a generic understanding of many different subject matters. Depth is having greater knowledge in a specific subject matter but not as much or no additional knowledge in other subjects. In projects, given that we might not have the proper resources to have all the members to cover all areas in a project which is not realistic, we can see this type of uncertainty happen more often. We see this more in the insurance industry because we are not typically controlled by things that are not in our control to effectively execute projects. Question 3: What is the likely shape of the sums from rolling two dice? Select the closest one or describe your own answer. Given that I am a supply chain major and that statistics has been a huge significant part in my academic career, the likely shape of rolling both the dice is going to be option C. The reason behind this is because the likelihood of the dice to land within three to seven is very likely rather than the outliers

MANGT 597 Project Rick Management HW – 01 Richard Lewis that the dice are going to be able to roll in the outliers of the curve. Even though they are possible, the probability is not as high. Yes, option D is a close second but if we calculate the probability, it would not be as high as the likelihood of rolling in three to seven amounts. We should keep in mind that rolling of these dice is an aleatory and stochastic uncertainty and there is a slight chance that if you continue to roll the dice, the possibility of the dice rolling in the outliers can happen one after the next. Bonus Question: How many possible outcomes for the sums from rolling five dice? The number of possible outcomes of tolling 5 dice is 7,776 outcomes. Bonus Question: What is the likely shape of the sums from rolling five dice? Select the closest one or describe your own answer. And explain WHY. The shape of the rolling the five different dice is D. The difference between question three and the question here is we are multiplying the dice by two and a half. The probability of these five dice having the sum amount to be the same probability of the two dice is unlikely. The reason behind this is we are unable to have a predictable aspect of one to thirty versus one to twelve. The likelihood of five dice to have a sum of being within 10 to 20 is not the same from three to seven. The outliers are larger in the five dice than it would be in the two dice. Hence the change in probability to occur with the likelihood of the dice to be within a given sum. Not only that but we need to also keep in mind that we still have an aleatory and stochastic uncertainty where we are even more uncertain than the previous scenario. So given this unpredictability, we will choose option D to associate as the shape of the sums. References: Dr. Byung-Cheol "BC" Kim. “1.1 What is Uncertainty?”. https://psu.instructure.com/courses/2314857/pages/1-dot-1-what-is-uncertainty? module_item_id=40051847 Dr. Byung-Cheol "BC" Kim. “1.3 Different Types of Uncertainty”. https://psu.instructure.com/courses/2314857/pages/1-dot-3-different-types-of-uncertainty? module_item_id=40051849

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