ECON437_Midterm2_SP23-1

QUESTION FOUR Study the following text and answer the questions below it. How to Build a One-Match Campfire Building a campfire that you can light with one match is simple if you follow these easy steps. The first step is to prepare a safe place for your campfire. Clear an area on the ground at least 3 feet wide, and put a circle of stones around it. Second, gather fuel. You will need several sizes of fuel: small twigs, medium sticks, and large sticks. The next step is to build a tepee. Put a handful of twigs in a small pile, and use the small sticks to build a small tepee over the pile. Leave spaces large enough to drop a lighted match through. Next, build a cabin around the tepee using the medium sticks. Fifth, place two large pieces of wood on either side of the cabin, and lay two or three long sticks on top to make a loose roof. The last step is to light a match and drop it through a space in the tepee. Soon you will enjoy the warmth of a nice fire, and your friends will admire…

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Topic B Problem: Imagine you have two competing athletes who have the option to use an illegal and/or dangerous drug to enhance their performance (i.e., dope). If neither athlete dopes, then neither gains an advantage. If only one dopes, then that athlete gains a massive advantage over their competitor, reduced by the medical and legal risks of doping. However, if both athletes dope, the advantages cancel out, and only the risks remain, putting them both in a worse position than if neither had been doping. What class concept best describes this situation? Using this class concept, what outcome do we expect from these two athletes? Are there any factors that could change the outcome predicted by this course concept?

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operation research

What is the Decision Rule?

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Problem 7 A casino offers people the chance to play the following game: flip two fair coins. If both come up heads, the gambler wins $1. If both come up tails, the gambler wins $3. If one is heads and one is tails, the gambler gets nothing. The game costs $1.25 to play. Your friend, Richard, who has not taken a probability course and thus doesn't know any better, goes to this casino and plays the game 600 times. Estimate the probability that your friend loses between $132 and $195 over the course of the 600 games. (You need to provide a number instead of an expression involving NA(a,b)).

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A friend offers you a chance to play a game in which there are only two outcomes, each with equal probability.  If you get the "good" outcome, you win $80.  But if you get the bad outcome, you only win $20. What price to play would make this a fair game (fair bet)?  Carefully follow all mathematical instructions in your answer.

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7) Manager B Effort Level Chance of success Cost of effort High Effort 0.6 100,000 Routine Effort 0.5 60,000 What is the minimum bonus that will entice high effort?   1. 40,000   2. 260,000   3. 300,000   4. 400,000   5. 520,000   6. 60,000   7. 100,000   8. 0 6) Manager A Effort Level Chance of success Cost of effort High Effort 0.6 300,000 Routine Effort 0.5 260,000 What is the minimum bonus that will entice high effort?   1. 40,000   2. 260,000   3. 300,000   4. 400,000   5. 520,000   6. 60,000   7. 100,000   8. 0 5) ABC Instrument, a manufacturer of precise scientific instruments, relies heavily on the efforts of its local salespeople. Selling an instrument requires either luck, high effort, or some combination of the two. A salesperson who chooses to work hard has a 40 percent chance of selling an instrument in a given year while a salesperson who chooses…

2. Individual Problems 17-2 You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $3 million to $5 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $2,250,000. You believe you have a 10% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is $ , you Given that this is play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign if the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (in expected value) is what probability does playing the final round yield an expected value of zero?) (Hint: At

1. Individual Problems 18-1 You hold an oral, or English, auction among three bidders. You estimate that each bidder has a value of either $88 or $110 for the item, and you attach probabilities to each value of 50%. The winning bidder must pay a price equal to the second highest bid. The following table lists the eight possible combinations for bidder values. Each combination is equally likely to occur. On the following table, indicate the price paid by the winning bidder. Combination Number Bidder 1 Value Bidder 2 Value Bidder 3 Value Probability Price ($) ($) ($) 1 $88 $88 $88 0.125      2 $88 $88 $110 0.125      3 $88 $110 $88 0.125      4 $88 $110 $110 0.125      5 $110 $88 $88 0.125      6 $110 $88 $110 0.125      7 $110 $110 $88 0.125      8 $110 $110 $110 0.125        The expected price paid is   .   Suppose that bidders 1 and 2 collude and would be willing to bid up to a maximum of their values, but the two bidders…

Imagine that two firms in two different countries want to bring a new product to market. Due to economies of scale, if both firms do this, they will both lose £50 million. But if only one firm does this, it will gain £300 million. (a) What is the best strategy for firm A, if firm B has not yet entered the market, and why? (b) Illustrate this with a game theory diagram, showing appropriate payouts. (c) What is the welfare-maximising strategy for a government, and why?

Address the following with suitable examples.      (a)How Nash Equilibrium is achieved under Game Theory. (b)Find Nash Equilibrium in case of first-mover strategy. (c)Give some examples of games with two Nash Equilibriums? (d)Explain the concept of Nash Equilibrium in case of Non-Cooperative Games. (e)How expected Nash Equilibrium would be achieved in case of game with no Nash Equilibrium?

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D3) What is the misconception of the risk-reward relationship? What is the role and the ultimate goal of the decision maker? Examples, implications.

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2 Scenario Your client, InsureCorp, is an insurance company considering launching an 'income insur- ance' product in the nation of Motherland. Income insurance is a product that fully insures a household against changes in income caused by a major injury or illness. At present, no businesses are selling income insurance products in Motherland. Initial market research suggests that there are 15,000 households in Motherland interested in purchasing income insurance. Your client expects that the fixed cost of launching the income insurance product will be $25,000,000 per year, and that each policy issued to a customer will cost the company an additional $2,000 in sales commissions. 2.1 Your task Your client wants you to analyse the potential market for income insurance and report on the following: What is the maximum price the company can charge a household for an income insurance policy? What is the expected profit (or loss) for the company if it becomes a monopoly provider of income…

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