Unit 3 Discussion
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Financial forecasting is important to many aspects of owning a business, running an organization, or simply being an employee or consumer. Dealing with the economy and understanding the value of our future dollars can be
a large task but it is a beneficial one in order to avoid financial disaster. Block et al. (2022) suggest that resolving financial issues before they occur can help financial managers stay afloat and prepare with enough time to gather external funds required to cover new costs. It can be a lengthy process when attempting to build funds and grow financial resources that can help cover the rising or future cost of business. The time consuming nature of financial forecasting can be a difficult problem to address as a small or start-
up business. In a recent study of Finnish businesses, Hyvonen (2022) reported that many small to medium organizations do not forecast effectively due to time management and personnel knowledge base. These businesses are missing the mark on projecting future costs, inventory, and asset allocation because time and effort is not set aside to work on these forecasts. Another problem with forecasting comes from relying on projected data too heavily or for too long into the future. A projection is just that: a projection. It is an educated guess to best display the health and future success of a business. It must be completed with historically accurate data or as close to it as possible. Without historical data or by using too many projected numbers, a forecast can become ineffective. Developing pro forma statements and a cash budget can be very helpful tools in determining future business endeavors and decisions points. Block et al. (2022) note that producing these documents can help estimate future inventory, payables, and profits. For example, when reviewing the 2021 Financial Report from the Walt Disney Company, page 90 describes the pro forma results based on the assumption that Disney Plus and Hulu would consolidate into one company. The pro forma statements allowed Disney to evaluate future values such as net income, revenue, and earnings per share. These numbers include projections on increased filming costs and “amortization” which they define as incrementally charging additional values to support expected costs. Utilizing these forecasting tools, Disney is better prepared to deal with fluctuations or concerns within the market or industry. References
Block, S., Hirt, G., & Danielsen, B. (2022). Foundations of Financial Management (18
th
ed.). McGraw-Hill
Hyvonen, T. (2022). Data analytics and financial forecasting: A field study from Finnish enterprises. Nordic Journal of Business, 71
(2), 126-134. www.doi.org/10.10762-f7-h7160490893
Mosca, L. (2020). Planning for profit is crucial to your business. Here's why. Forbes. www.forbes.com/sites/louismosca/2019/05/02/planning-for-profit-is-crucial-to-your-business-heres-why/?
sh=663af9a5261f
Fiscal Year 2021 Annual Financial Report. (2021, November 17).
The Walt Disney Company. Retrieved January 16, 2024, from www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2022/01/2021-Annual-Report.pdf
I was unaware that businesses already have standard practice for increasing projected operating costs and budgets as you stated above. I’m wondering if 3% increase annually is truly helpful in forecasting or if it’s too broad of a value? It appears that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is a value that measures the percent change in the goods and services of a normal household has fluctuated greatly over the last ten years (CPI, 2024). Here’s a graph from the BLS depicting the percent change over the last ten years.
I think the extreme points in the graph, which represent the significant highs and lows of inflation, could really skew data if not forecasted correctly. Block et al. (2022) describe the importance of constructing a pro forma income statement that accurately projects the cost of goods sold, which is during the specified time period. Looking at our extremes in 2015, 2020, and 2022, this may have disrupted future projections and data points that businesses relied on. Controlling inventory, updating accounts payable, and future borrowing power can become a time consuming effort of re-work when inflation is unexpectedly high or low. As you mentioned, staying aware of even minute market fluctuations can help prepare a business against future failures or losses. Not only did the stock market take hits with the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues started to occur in increasing rates. Many businesses that were comfortable taking risks before 2019 found themselves with significant supply chain problems and realized the risks were too deep to recover from (Gbilaro, 2022). The aftermath of the pandemic changed the market’s reaction to supply chain complications and new companies are more cognizant and cautious when entering the market. References
Block, S., Hirt, G., & Danielsen, B. (2022). Foundations of Financial Management (18
th
ed.). McGraw-Hill
Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers. (2024, January 17). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved on January 17, 2024, from https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
Gibilaro L. (2022). Supply chain dynamics after the COVID-19 pandemic and stock market performance: Evidence from the US. Economics: Innovative & Economic Research Journal, 10
(2), 45-62. www.doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2022-
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