ch07_spreadsheet_activity_intructions_7

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Apr 3, 2024

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CHAPTER 7, ACTIVITY #2: FORWARD LOOKING RETURN AND RISK In this activity, you will model a forward-looking return and risk scenario. You will then use Goal Seek to find a break-even probability. An analyst tracks the pharmaceutical firm MannKind Corporation (TICKER: MNKD). The company has just launched an insulin spray that might change the diabetes drug market. Of course, it might not either. The current stock price for MannKind is $5.50. The analyst has created four possible outcomes for the new insulin spray in the next year based on consumer demand. The consumer demand will influence the inventory that MannKind must carry. His assumptions are shown below: DEMAND: STOCK PRICE PROBABILITY High Demand --- Additional production needed $11.00 10% Good Demand --- At capacity $8.50 25% Average Demand --- Too Much Inventory $5.75 40% Poor Response --- Overinvestment $2.50 25% As you can see, the analyst is not encouraged at MannKind’s prospects. Here is what you need to model for this activity: Returns for each demand outcome Expected return based on probability Variance and standard deviation based on probability Find probability needed to reach return Here are the steps needed: STEP 1. Use the one-period return model to find the returns for each level of demand. STEP 2. Use the SUMPRODUCT formula to find the expected return for investing. STEP 3. Create a column of squared deviations (return for demand – expected return)^2. STEP 4. Use SUMPRODUCT to find the variance of returns. STEP 5. Convert the variance to a standard deviation.
STEP 6. Let’s assume that the analyst feels Mannkind must generate a 15% return to be worth the risk. If he feels good about the probabilities, what price must MannKind sell at the high demand case to reach a 15% expected return? (HINT: Use Goal Seek to set the expected return cell equal to 15%, by changing the future stock price if demand is high.)
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