Debt Capital Markets
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Debt Capital Markets
After a period of uncertainty during the pandemic, which resulted in one of
the steepest drops in global GDP in history, the prognosis for 2022 is brighter
and more affluent. According to JPMorgan analysts, 2022 will be a year of
global recovery following the end of Covid 19-induced limitations and the
return to normalcy (JPMorgan, 2022). With the return of mobility throughout
the world and a rapid increase in consumer expenditure, including corporate
spending, a cyclical rebound is envisaged.
The monetary policy stance, which was predicted to be accommodating in
the first half of the year, is likely to shift to modestly assertive in the second
half of the year. Rising inflation is going to be a persisting concern for
multiple economies due to supply chain bottlenecks and expected to ease
only in the latter half of the year because of targeted policy responses and
decrease in supply demand imbalances (IMF, 2022). The Bank of England has
raised rates to combat increasing prices (King, 2022), and the US Fed,
European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada are all likely to follow suit,
showing that the regulators' position has switched from dovish to slightly
hawkish. The following graph depicts the rate of global GDP growth in
comparison to financial crises and previous expansionary periods:
(JP Morgan, 2022)
The rebound of global output following the pandemic is likely to outperform
both the recovery from the global financial crisis and the average of the
previous three expansions. This scenario is predicted to come true as a
result of the private sector's solid fundamentals and continued expansion.
During the epidemic, people and corporations built up savings, which is likely
to stimulate demand for worldwide services and inventory. An ideal formula
for a global boom in the making is a mix of solid foundations and policies
aimed at growth in all industries.
During the times of the pandemic the issuance of High yield bonds have
gained prominence around the world. In the US, high yield or junk bonds
represented 25 percent of the total bond issuances in the country as they
were supported immensely by the debt market investors due to high returns
associated with it. With an expected flattening of yield curve in the latter half
of the year due to tightening of monetary policy by central banks, a shift of
investment in investment grade corporate bonds along with some
investment in high yield bond is anticipated (Michele, 2022).
Outperforming Industry in 2022
The following section highlights the performance of industries in the debt
capital markets in the latter half of the year:
Banks and financial – One of the most beneficial industry according to
bond market expectation is the banks and financial institutions. A
rising interest rate environment would propel growth in the industry as
banks would be able borrow at lower rates and lend at higher rates.
High yield bonds from banking and finance industry are expected to
perform well due to low risk of default (Martin, 2022).
Energy industry – On the back of rising energy prices around the globe,
the industry is expected to perform well in the future periods to come.
Amongst all other energy commodities, oil is expected to become the
major beneficiary of the economic recovery with a rise in price per
barrel.
Basic materials – High infrastructural development that is expected
generate pace may be able to push the valuations of basic materials
companies to higher levels. With electronic market vehicle picking up
around the world demand for charging infrastructural development
would rise benefitting material companies. Miners of lithium, cobalt,
and nickel would be benefitted due to a rise in demand of batteries for
electronic vehicles (Fidelity, 2022).
Real Estate – Rising interest rate environment across the world would
be beneficial for real estate owners as due to the effect of inflation the
rents for the properties would rise. The sector is historically been
considered as an inflation hedge and is expected to outperform in a
rising inflation environment (Rastegar, 2022).
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