MIDTERM QUEST
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IDS2935
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Geography
Date
Dec 6, 2023
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11
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How have Atlantic cyclones changed as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change?
•Describe at least four ways that these storms have changed.
•Describe how the global frequency of cyclones has changed over the last century.
•How will Atlantic cyclones likely change in the future?
Climate change has seeped into every part of our world, especially natural disasters.
Since global warming has been increasing and by proxy, climate change itself is occurring on an
even larger scale, Atlantic cyclones have taken a turn. Already being rather frequent and
powerful, the warming of ocean water due to climate change has only morphed Atlantic cyclones
into an even more monstrous force.
One of the most obvious ways that these storms have changed is in frequency. Years ago
in 1992, there were only 10 total depression systems and only 6 named storms. This was the year
of Hurricane Andrew, which was utterly catastrophic. Fast forward to 2022, there were 14 named
storms with two majorly catastrophic storms (Friedlander, 2022). This emphasizes the idea that
over the last thirty years, these storm systems have become extremely frequent compared to
before. Another way that these cyclones have changed in their slow movement across the ocean.
Slower moving storms collect more energy as the water is warmer and allows the storm to suck
up more water, adding to its already strong forces. This points to the next idea that these storms
are becoming wider in range. These storms are spending more time on the water, gathering more
strength and becoming so large that they must also become wider, increasing its landfall range
and increasing damage levels. This also means that areas that previously were not experiencing
cyclones are in a threatened area and may not have the proper resources to be able to combat
these cyclones. Finally, storms are changing in precipitation levels. The atmosphere itself holds
much more moisture due to the warming climate and because of this, storm systems bring
damage, storm surge and flooding but intense levels of precipitation on top of this, further
exacerbating areas affected by these storms.
As referenced to above, major storm system frequency is only increasing. As Friedlander
published (referenced above), there were 14 named storms in the 2022 hurricane season, two of
them becoming major storms. These major cyclones were named Ian and Fiona and both were
category 4 Atlantic hurricanes. Ian was said to be one of the most damaging hurricanes and made
landfall twice on September 28 and September 30 (Friedlander, 2022). 30 years ago, this was
unheard of. Two major category 4 hurricanes in one season is unheard of and only points to the
idea that climate change is only continuing to worsen.
Looking ahead, the strength and frequency of Atlantic cyclones will only increase. Most
models predict not only more storms in general but also more Category 4 and 5 storms. The
magnitude of these storms can rip areas to shreds, sometimes so much so that the area will never
be able to recover. Coastal areas in Florida and other states can only take so much battering and
with the threat of increased strength and frequency, the outlook for some of these areas is bleak.
Not only is the threat of incredibly strong and frequent hurricanes looming but so is the threat of
a more volatile storm. These storms are likely to begin changing their tracks quickly and at a
moments notice. This puts communities at risk who are unprepared and also creates a problem of
wasted materials in the areas that the hurricanes shift away from. Lastly, another projection for
the future of cyclones is an increased intensification rate. This is truly one of the most dangerous
things as many communities may be only expecting a Category 2 or 3 which can quickly switch
to a Category 5, wiping out entire communities. This also is a major threat to residents lives
because they may stay in an area because they believe the storm to be a Category 2. If and when
it becomes a stronger storm, these people are in a position of their lives being at major risk as
there is no time to evacuate and the storm headed their direction is extremely deadly.
Overall, Atlantic cyclones have always been a force to reckon with. In these coming
years, the strength, frequency, range, precipitation level, and destruction level of these storms is
only going to level up. This puts so many coastal areas into increased danger. The increase in
these storms is a product of climate change and if greenhouse gas levels continue to rise, these
storms will only continue to increase and damage so many communities. Battling these storms
will be an uphill battle and the only way to fix it is to fix the damage we are doing to the Earth.
Describe the greenhouse effect caused by heteroatomic gases.
1.
Include in your answer the order of importance of the major greenhouse gases and
list some of the major sources of emissions that are causing the concentration of
CO2 to rise.
2.
Describe the role of water vapor as a determinant of the troposphere's temperature.
3.
Include a description of how air temperature affects drought and precipitation.
The greenhouse effect is an integral natural process that is supposed to help regulate the
Earth;s overall temperature by trapping heat in our atmosphere. It is caused by greenhouse gases
preventing some of the heat in the atmosphere from escaping into space. The heteroatomic gases
referenced in the question are adding to this effect but are not nearly as impactful as gasses such
as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) which are called homonuclear gasses.
The major greenhouse gases in our atmosphere are CO2, CH4, Water Vapor (H20),
Nitrous Oxide (N20), Ozone (O3) and other various small amounts of different gases. Their
amount is relative to their respective listed order. The major sources of emissions that are causing
the concentration of CO2 to rise is the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gases) as well as
deforestation and land change usage. As the world continues to innovate and change, the
environment takes a toll. The biggest energy source in the world is fossil fuels which contributes
to massive amounts of CO2 emissions. Everything from manufacturing to food production to
transportation is fueled by fossil fuels. The burning of these fossil fuels on such a large scale is
truly damaging the environment. On top of this, there is much deforestation occurring meaning
there are less and less trees that are able to take in the CO2 being emitted and turn it into oxygen,
only continuing to damage the environment.
Water vapor is crucial to the troposphere’s temperature. The amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere varies with the temperature of the atmosphere. As the atmosphere warms, it holds
more water vapor which furthers the greenhouse effect and traps heat in the troposphere. And on
the flip side, when the atmosphere cools water vapor turns into clouds which release
precipitation and heat in order to stabilize temperatures. Water vapor is a naturally occurring
greenhouse gas and is extremely important to the atmospheric function.
The temperature of the air is crucial to the presence of drought and precipitation. In
respect to drought, whenever the temperature of the atmosphere is warmer, there is increased
evaporation from bodies of water as well as the land. This can in turn lead to less moisture in the
ground for vegetation as well as other agriculture which can exacerbate drought conditions. Not
only does increased temperatures strip water from the landscape but it also increases the water
demand from humans. All and all, this becomes a lose lose situation. Another factor that is
affected by the temperature of the atmosphere is precipitation. The warmer the air is, the more
water it can hold and as a result, the more precipitation that may occur. On the other side of this,
the increased temperature can change the pattern of precipitation, causing downpours followed
by intense dry spells.
In conclusion, the greenhouse effect is driven by CO2, MH4 and water vapor and is
integral in the regulation of the Earth’s atmospheric temperature. These effects are seen in many
aspects of the environment but are prominent in drought and precipitation levels. This can in turn
negatively affect our environment, causing the damage of ecosystems and vegetation
The paper by
Hsiang et al. (2017)
Links to an external site.
describes the manifold economic impacts of climate change regarding how heat will affect
several interacting systems. According to this analysis, Florida will be severely damaged by
the end of the century.
1.
Describe four of these factors.
2.
Why Florida might suffer more than other parts of the US.
Climate change’s intensiveness spreads into all aspects of the world as it is known. This
includes physical changes to the earth but also economic and demographic changes. Increasing
heat due to climate change also intensifies these shifts, leaving many areas at risk but others
more so than the rest.
Heat plays an integral role on the human body itself so when factoring in things like the
agriculture realm and the labor force, the outlook begins to look bleak. This paper predicts that
by 2080, the agricultural yield will reduce significantly as vegetation will be unable to prosper in
such a warm environment. A decrease in food supply only worsens many other conditions such
as the mortality rate. This paper also predicts that the mortality rate will increase by almost 40
percent by the time we reach the end of the century. Heat also increases the amount of energy we
use and the amount of demand placed on electric grids. The electricity demand is set to increase
rapidly at the end of the century, possibly to the point where it is no longer sustainable. And
finally, a fourth aspect affected by heat is the labor force. As temperature increases, people want
to work less and less, meaning that the necessary labor force decreases.
Florida may suffer from the economic impacts of climate change due to its geographical
position, its major money making industries, infrastructure costs, and agriculture yields. Florida’s
geographic location is prime for vacation spots. No other state has the same shape or climate that
Florida does, making it unique and also allowing for so much coastal line. This is an asset when
it comes to the tourism industry however makes Florida much more vulnerable to natural
disasters and sea level rise. This flows into the next economic impact Florida may suffer from
which is the destruction of its essential economy. Florida’s economy is entirely based on tourism
whether that be from Disney World, Universal, its gorgeous beaches or its hot topic destinations
like Miami. This is part of the reason there is no state income tax as there is so much money
generated from tourism. Climate change may bring this all to a halt because the areas Florida is
so proud of may be destroyed or simply become washed away due to natural disasters or sea
level rise. This plays into the next issue that is infrastructure costs. Since there is an increased
chance of natural disasters such as hurricanes and tropical storms, there must be infrastructure to
protect coastal areas from this but also infrastructure for residents to safely flee these threats. All
of these needs get costly and if Florida just has to continue to input these and then build them up
again when they get destroyed, it becomes sustainable especially if the state’s biggest money
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