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Jacob Levesque SYST/HIST 202 Class 7 – The Environment as a Complex System Homework Discussion Questions Edwards, “Climate Models” Climate models: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/climate-modeling Club of Rome and Limits to Growth: http://www.clubofrome.org/report/the-limits-to-growth/ 1. You are blogging for a cable news channel. Write a corporate-style blog entry (NOT a personal blog or a tweet) describing the evolution of system dynamics models, from military systems to climate models to global models. What do you think about the use of such models as the basis for creating policy in those three arenas? Explain using specific examples. The Evolution of System Dynamics Models: From Military Systems to Climate Models to Global Policy - The evolution of system dynamics models has been remarkable going from its original purpose of military strategy to addressing complex global challenges. Military Systems: Precision and Strategy - System dynamics modeling originated in the mid-20 th Century with the U.S. military. It was used as a tool to address complex strategic issues. The models were designed to analyze multiple variables and how they interact so to best know the possible outcomes. The use of models allowed policymakers to make more informed decisions because they could better grasp the outcome of their actions. Especially in the realm of the nuclear arms race where the models played a pivotal role. An example would be models like the Nuclear Posture Review which helped the United States approach nuclear weapons and deterrence. Climate Models: Tackling Environmental Complexity - As war became less of a pressing issue global environmental challenges took center stage. System dynamic models found new applications in climate science. Climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) utilize complex systems to understand the dynamics of Earth’s climate system. The models incorporate variables like greenhouse gas emissions, temperature changes, and their feedback loops. These climate models have provided policy makers with a predicted glimpse into the future. People are pushing for more policies focusing on climate change now that they can see clear evidence of where the Earth is heading. The Paris agreement in 2016 was aimed at mitigating the damage caused to the climate.

Global Models: Navigating a Complex World - The final evolution of system dynamics models is the global models. These models are used to address an array of complex issues, from global health crises to economic forecasts and international relations. The World Health Organization (WHO) employed system dynamics modeling to simulate the spread of diseases like COVID-19 so they can formulate effective public health policies. Their use in economic forecasting is through the consideration of variables such as fiscal policy, trade, and technological advances. With these models economists can predict potential outcomes and propose policies to enhance economic growth. Wesselink, “Dutch Response to Katrina” Netherlands flood control: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlands ; Article (PDF): Dutch Flood Control Dutch lessons for New Orleans (video): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAtofX4vQNI 1. A Dutch engineer stated (of both New Orleans and the Netherlands), ‘‘If you want to live in these areas, you have to protect them.” Who should decide whether people should live in flood-prone areas, and who should protect them? Politicians? Engineers? Insurance companies? Individuals? Explain your answer with specific examples, from the article and from other sources. People themselves should decide if they want to live in these flood-prone areas. However they should also be expected to protect their own houses. If you are willing to live in these high danger areas, then you should pay higher taxes and more for insurance. Politicians should mirror the will of their people and if they want protection the politicians should give it to them. If a lawmaker isn’t doing enough to protect the community than they will lose their job. The politicians hold the power to allocate resources for flood protection and manage regulations. An example of the politicians protecting the people is in Netherlands where they have been establishing extensive flood protection systems, such as dikes and floodgates. Engineers would need to work with the utmost care when designing projects around these dangerous areas. Their expertise is vital in coming up with practical solutions to the problems faced by living in these harsh environments. Insurance companies should be allowed to raise their rates when the homes are in greater risk. They would assess the risk and try to best make a insurance premium. The amount of money needed to be insured greatly impacts the decision of people to live in a place like New Orleans.

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