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Jan 9, 2024

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1-1 Discussion: Shell Scenarios In this discussion, begin by introducing yourself to the class and explain your background. Go to the Shell Scenarios webpage. Once you have navigated to the site, watch the "Shell New Lens Scenarios" video (1:38) found on that page. (If you have trouble locating the video, it can also be found on YouTube .) Also, watch the video, Deep Historical Forces (27:49). A close-captioned video is available: Deep Historical Forces (CC). A video transcript is available: Transcript for Deep Historical Forces . After watching the videos, navigate to the New Lens on the Future website and download the New Lens Scenarios PDF. Read the two scenarios: Mountains, p. 22, and Oceans, p. 46. Then, in your initial post, consider the following: Which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to occur? Defend your choice by analyzing it in the context of the deep historical forces outlined in the video. How does Shell utilize business teams in this process? What advice would you give Shell to prepare for its future to succeed in the face of likely governmental impacts? In response to your peers, state whether you agree with their choice as the most likely scenario to occur and the advice that they have given to prepare Shell to succeed in the face of likely government impacts. Justify your critique of your peer's scenario advice and support your justification with scholarly research cited in APA format. To complete this assignment, review the Discussion Rubric .
I believe that the scenario that is most likely to occur between Ocean and Mountain is certainly Mountain. In the New Lens Scenarios (2013) deck, in the section for Mountains it states “ Advantage creates advantage – influence remains concentrated in the hands of the currently powerful”, this can be directly tied to one of the Deep Historical Force of Inequality. The areas, countries, or segments that have more wealth, more influence and largest grasp are going to have the greater advantage of outputting ideas that could influence trends (Dr. D University, 2017). Also outlined in the New Lens Scenario was the Guilded age, named by Mark Twain, was an age where inequality in both areas of social and economic were growing larger (Shell International, 2013). This increasing gap in the 19 th century influenced the access to jobs, college availability, and household income. Diving in more into the Forces, there are two more I want to highlight. Technology, this was explained not as just new electronics but as the evolution of how we use different things, such as the printing press (Dr. D University, 2017). I believe as a 90s baby and seeing technology with so many genres explode, we are in an era or getting close to a time where we will witness a shift of “old” thinking to “new. Connectivity with the world is growing, the access to information is limitless now and we are watching pieces of generations doing their homework, passionate about change and speaking up to get their voices heard. Leadership is being built in the younger generations in a way that it feels like it was just less than 100 years ago in times where socially and economically things were changing, maybe this is the change we need in an energy source way now. I believe the younger generations celebrate each other’s achievement in and are pushing to be better and make better (Shell International, 2013). This lastly leads me to the Industrial Revolution, which is #1 in the Deep Historical Forces video (2017). I believe that the meaning behind the industrial revolution can become a revolution of any kind, where as I said before, I feel. As if we are on the cusp of a change. Over the last few years, we have watched companies make vocal and public promises of changes in energy resources, usage, and environment impact. The Mountains shows a development of resources that is a positive for both supply and demand, giving growth and incentives to companies and supporters (Shell International, 2013). Shell has utilized business teams to outline two areas where out future could lead us. I believe they did an incredible job that no one else would want to take on. It is a dirty job if you think about it, there is scrutiny from both sides, those who believe Mountains and those who believe Oceans. Their extensive research allows us to take a jump into the future to realize the paths ending, almost like an Alice in Wonderland view through each scenario. The fun part about reading this was we are in the middle of these scenarios and can view a bit of the past and a bit of the future. I did take a look at the past scenarios and they were just as extensive. I am sure the time that was taken into forecasting 50 years not to mention the passion that was bled into this research is extensive and should not be taken for granted. While I believe that the Mountains is the most likely route, I can see how other countries would be more apt to follow Ocean. My advice for Shell to prepare for its future to succeed in the face of likely governmental impacts is to continue to forecast. I believe they have done an incredible job outlining what possible outcomes there are. Shell has access to so many professionals from engineer, geologists, scientists, financial, business etc, do not let those people have ideas that are not at least listened to. Continue to let the innovative thoughts flow, try things that push the envelope (as cheesy as it sounds). Shell should celebrate the collaboration of everyone employed thus empowering and creating a space where their unity thrives off the innovation of all. References Dr. D University. (2017, August 13). Deep Historical Forces [video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=WkU3OFBXCzc Shell International. (2013). New lens scenarios: a shift in perspective for a world in transition. https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/what-are-the-previous-shell- scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future/_jcr_content/root/main/section/simple/link_list_copy_copy/links/ item0.stream/1652287059126/77705819dcc8c77394d9540947e811b8c35bda83/scenarios-newdoc-english.pdf
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