To forecast the sales from Squatty Potty

To forecast the sales from Squatty Potty's new viral video campaign, several core assumptions are crucial to ensure an accurate and realistic projection. Here, we delve into these assumptions and apply specific numbers to them, using data from Squatty Potty's past campaigns and general marketing principles. Cost: The cost of the video production one time cost is assumed to be remain same i.e. $250,000. Timing: The viral video from Squatty Potty launch to be released January 1, 2017. Viewership: Expected viewership is projected based on past video performance. Given the total video views of approximately 168 million from previous campaigns, a similar or slightly increased viewership is anticipated for the new video. Net Present Value (NPV): NPV calculation is vital for assessing the campaign's profitability over time. It considers the projected future cash flows from the campaign, discounted back to their present value. Growth Rate: Throughout the campaign the average growth of squatty potty's number of purchase is 19%. During November & December 2016, this monthly growth is as high as 94% and 159% respectively. It also goes deep as (21%) in the month of August 2016 Channel mix – Basis the last quarter FY 2016 average unit sales analysis, contribution from SquattyPotty.com is expected to be 12.37%, contribution from Amazon SellerCentral Unit is 2.33% and contribution for Amazon VendorCentral Unit is expected to be same 85.31% for the new campaign. Average Selling Price – Average selling price from the previous campaign data is considered for the each channel. i.e. Average Selling price - Given $42.77 , Average Selling price - Given $30.77 and Average Selling price – Given is $19.63. Cost of sales - On average, cost of sales (shipping/manufacturing) is 35% of revenue and the same has been considred for the new forecasting. Video promotion expenditure is 15% of revenue which is an average is considered Discount rate for calculating the NPV is considered 10% considering the industry benchmark and this 10% already consider the inflation rate. Based on the detailed analysis of Squatty Potty’s Facebook targeting data and the identified limitations and under-represented groups in their current strategy, several recommendations can be made to enhance the effectiveness of future promotional campaigns. These recommendations are designed to broaden the customer base, increase engagement, and drive higher conversion rates. Recommendations for Future Promotional Campaigns: 1. Expand Targeting to Include Males and Older Adults :  Rationale: The initial focus predominantly on health-conscious females may overlook potential interest from males and older adults who could benefit from

Squatty Potty’s health advantages. Considering the broader issues of constipation affecting 19% of adults and the specific benefits for conditions more prevalent in aging populations, targeting older adults and including messaging that resonates with male audiences could significantly expand the market reach. 2. Develop Family-Oriented Campaigns :  Rationale: With 29% of all children experiencing constipation, parents represent a crucial segment in health product purchasing. Developing campaigns that emphasize the product’s benefits for the whole family, including children, can tap into the parent market, driving increased engagement and sales. 3. Leverage Qualitative Feedback for Content Customization :  Gather insights through surveys or comment analysis to understand why certain demographics engage more or less with the content. For instance, if sentiment analysis reveals that the humor used resonates less with older adults, content can be tailored to better suit this demographic’s preferences.  Rationale: Qualitative feedback can uncover specific content preferences, barriers to purchase, and the overall sentiment towards the brand, enabling Squatty Potty to refine its messaging and content strategy to more effectively reach and convert its target audiences. 4. Implement A/B Testing Across Diverse Segments :  Conduct A/B testing not just on content elements but also on targeted demographic segments to identify what messaging, imagery, and calls to action are most effective for each group.  Rationale: This approach allows for data-driven decision-making, ensuring that promotional content is optimized for engagement and conversions across all targeted segments. 5. Introduce Educational Content Focused on Health Benefits :  Considering the engagement and conversion numbers, such as a 3.26% result rate for the Yoga, Female segment, producing more in-depth educational content that explains the health benefits and scientific backing of using Squatty Potty could further increase trust and interest.  Rationale: Educational content can help demystify the product and address any hesitations due to the sensitive nature of the topic, thereby encouraging more informed purchasing decisions. 6. Utilize Retargeting Strategies to Increase Conversions :  Implement retargeting ads to capture the interest of users who engaged with the video but did not immediately purchase, possibly offering a limited-time discount or additional information to encourage conversion.  Rationale: Retargeting can effectively bring back users who showed initial interest but needed more time or a slight nudge to make a purchase decision, ultimately improving the conversion rates from video views. 7. Incorporate User Testimonials and Reviews in Campaigns :