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Polk State College *

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2022

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Philosophy

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Oct 30, 2023

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Module/Week 2. Models of Public Policy and Policy Evaluation
Model of Public Policy: Definition A model of public policy is a simplified representation of the causal relationships that link any number of policy inputs with a policy output of interest • Models do not attempt to explain all aspects of the policy process • Generally, one or two stages are analyzed
Causal Relationship: Definition • relationship between an input variable and an output variable, where an outcome variable has changed due to an exposure to an input variable Input Variable=Independent Variable= X • What is the cause that drives the effect? Output Variable= Dependent Variable=Y • What is being explained? What is the effect?
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Causal Relationship Policy scholars attempt to establish causal relationships, not simply associations Identifying the ‘mechanism’ • Why exactly does X lead to Y? • And why is that?
Types of Causality Policy analysts often speak of causal relationships as being of three fundamental types • Necessary • Sufficient • Necessary & Sufficient
Necessary Condition A necessary condition is one that is necessary for something else to occur: • Y does not happen unless X is present • If X is not present, Y will not happen • But, if X is present, Y may or may not happen Example • X= Being 25 years old • Y= Being elected to congress • To be elected to congress you must be 25 • Not all 25 year olds are members of congress
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Sufficient Condition A sufficient condition is one in the presence of which something else will always occur. • Y always happens when X is present. • If Y did not happen, X was not present. • But, if Y did happen, X may or may not have been present Example • X=Rain • Y=Puddle • When it rains there will be puddles • Other things can cause puddles (dropping a soda, leaving the hose on, etc.)
Necessary and Sufficient Condition A necessary and sufficient condition in whose absence the event will not occur and in whose presence the event must occur • Y only happens if and only if X is present. Example • X= Fire • Y= Smoke • When there is fire, there is smoke • Without fire, there is no smoke
Why is it important? When identifying causal relationships, it is important to identify the mechanism of WHY and HOW X->Y
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Deterministic vs Probabilistic • Deterministic: If X, then always Y • Probabilistic: If X, then likely Y • Why X may not lead to Y is due to random chance • Social science tends to deal with probabilistic relationships • If X occurs, does Y occurs at higher rates (and is that change not due to random chance)
Why Models of Public Policy? • Strong theory allows us to identify causal relationships: strong story for why something can cause a certain effect • Causal variable must precede the effect/outcome • X and Y must be correlated with each other (not a random spurious causation)
What makes a good model? • Multivariate • Probabilistic • Parsimonious • Generalizable • Falsifiable • Clear and Logically Consistent • Ideologically Neutral
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IAD – Institutional Analysis and Development • Developed by Elinor Ostrom • Goal: Explain how the choices that “rational” individuals make are shaped by the policy context and rules that characterize the rule- making environment • Individuals get together to solve a “problem” • Action arena is where “social individuals interact, exchange goods and services, solve problems, dominate one another, or fight“ • For policy scholars: it is a domain within which the policy decisions are made.
• The “Action Arena” is composed of the actors involved, the rules that structure their incentives and strategies, and how these two interact Actors: includes all actors involved in the decision-making process • WHO are they: Formal and/or informal; conglomeration • WHAT do they want: their desires, their value of cooperation, their trust to one another Rules : what behavior is required, prohibited, encouraged, etc. • How are policies decided (majority vs consensus, formal vs informal rules) IAD: Actors and Rules
Actors interacting with rules • How do actors work within the rules to get what they want • What affects who gets what and why • Who is better at working within the “action arena”
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See you next week! Do not forget to go over readings and video materials on Canvas. Do not forget that the Quiz for Modules 1 and 2 is due Sept 10!

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