CPHL214 Critical Thinking Inductive Argument exam
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Toronto Metropolitan University *
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Philosophy
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Dec 6, 2023
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CPHL214 Critical Thinking Inductive Argument exam
I. Do the following sentences state necessary or sufficient condition,
or both, or neither? Explain. (15 points)
1. To bring down a fever, apply a cloth dampened in cold water to the
patient’s face, arms and legs.
It is sufficient condition because we also have other ways to bring down a
fever. It can not be a necessary condition.
2. Any student who has not paid his or her tuition fee by the first day
of the term, or who has not made arrangements with the bursar’s
office for delayed payment, will be automatically required to
withdraw from the university
.
They are both necessary and sufficient conditions because there is no other
way to avoid withdrawing from the university if students who have not paid
tuition fee or made arrangements for delayed payment. It is a necessary
condition. In the meantime, all the necessary conditions combined are
sufficient to guarantee automatically withdrawing from the university. So they
are also sufficient conditions.
3. The results of a departmental vote are valid if, and only if, at least
25 per cent of members are present at the meeting in which the vote
took place.
It is both necessary and sufficient condition because only if at least 25 percent
of members are present in which the vote took place. Otherwise, the vote
couldn’t take place. It is a necessary condition. This condition also is sufficient
to guarantee a vote taking place so it is a sufficient condition.
4. In the US only US citizens can be elected president.
It is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition because if people who
are not US citizens, they don’t have qualification to be elected president. But
it is not a sufficient condition because not every US citizen can be elected
president. There are many other sufficient conditions to make someone
elected president not the condition of being US citizens.
5. You can’t watch television tonight Sarah, until your homework is
done and you’ve had a bath.
It is both necessary and sufficient condition because Sarah cannot watch
television without these two conditions. And these two conditions are
sufficient to guarantee she can watch television tonight.
II. For the following passages: 1) state the conclusion (if any), 2)
identify the parts (population, sample, relevant property), and 3)
evaluate the strength of the argument by identifying and describing
any weaknesses. (35 points)
6. In order to discover whether people were satisfied with the
recreational facilities provided by the city, a questionnaire was
included with the tax bills that were mailed out last spring. The
results showed that almost 80 percent were satisfied with the
current recreational facilities.
1) conclusion: almost 80 percent were satisfied with the current recreational
facilities.
2) Population: people in this city
Sample: people who have paid tax bills
Relevant property:
satisfied with the recreational facilities provided by the
city
3)
The argument is strong because most people need to pay tax bills. The
sample size is big enough.
7. The Career Placement officer predicts that 90 per cent of this
year’s graduates will find a job within three months of gradation.
This is good news indeed for my roommate. Even though he will have
only a general B.A. with a D average he still has a 90 per cent chance
of getting a job.
1) conclusion: roommate still has a 90 per cent chance of getting a job.
2) population:
this year’s graduates
sample: roommate
relevant property:
find a job within three months of gradation
3) the argument is weak because the sample size is too small and not
representative.
8. Recently the Philosophy Department surveyed all students
registered in its introductory courses. One of the questions asked
students whether they expected that a university education would
improve their communication skills, and 88 per cent answered yes to
this question. So it seems that 88 per cent of students at the
university think that a university education will improve
communication skills.
1) conclusion: 88 per cent of students at the university think that a university
education will improve communication skills
2) population: students at the university
sample: all students registered in
the Philosophy Department’s introductory courses
relevant property:
expected that a university education would improve their communication
skills
3) The argument is weak because the sample is not representative. It only
represents students in philosophy department courses. It doesn’t represent all
students’ thoughts in the university.
9. I recently read about a survey that showed that 90 per cent of
Canadians knew less about the American political system than the
average American ten-year-old. Well, there’s a Canadian student in
my American politics course, and I claim that he will not pass the
course when he’s that ignorant to begin with
.
1) conclusion:
the Canadian student claim that he will not pass the course
when he’s that ignorant to begin with.
2) population: Canadians
sample: a Canadian student in American politics
course
relevant property: knew less about the American political system than
the average American ten-year-old
3) the argument is weak because the sample size is too small. He cannot
claim that based on a survey about entire Canadians.
10. The Student Union conducted a telephone poll of students to see
how much support there was for a fee increase to help pay for new
athletic facilities. Every twentieth name in the student directory was
telephoned last weekend. The results demonstrated that only 44 per
cent supported the proposal.
1) conclusion: only 44 per cent student supported there was for a fee increase
to help pay for new athletic facilities
2) population: student in the student union
sample: every twentieth name in
the student directory
relevant property: support there was for a fee increase
to help pay for new athletic facilities
3) the argument is strong because the sample is selected randomly and
representatively. The size of sample is not too big but not too small.
III. For each of the following arguments: 1) state the conclusion (if
any), and 2) identify which of Mill’s methods (including correlation) is
being used. (25 points)
11. Epidemiologists traced the SARS illness back to a professor from
China who was staying at Hong Kong’s Metropole Hotel. Five other
people who have come down with SARS stayed at the same hotel,
with some of them staying on the same floor as the professor.
1) conclusion: the SARS illness back to a professor from China who was
staying at Hong Kong’s Metropole Hotel
2) methods of agreement because it compares with the same floor as the
professor.
12. All domesticated dog breeds become quite adept at responding
to human gestures such as pointing. By contrast, neither their
genetically close relatives, wolves, nor intellectually superior
primates, such as chimpanzees, respond as well as dogs to the same
cues. Therefore, it is likely that something happened in the
evolutionary heritage of dogs (i.e. a combination of breeding and
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socialization) since they spilt off from wolves and that factor is
responsible for this ability.
1) conclusion: All domesticated dog breeds become quite adept at responding
to human gestures such as pointing.
2) methods of difference because it compares with contrast.
13. In a famous experiment conducted by the Stanford University
psychologist Philip Zimbardo, a car was parked on a street in Palo
Alto, where it sat untouched for a week. At the same time, Zimbardo
had an identical car parked in a roughly comparable neighborhood in
the Bronx, only in this case license plates were removed and the
hood was propped open. Within a day, it was stripped. Then, in the
final twist, Zimbardo smashed one of the Palo Alto’s car’s windows
with a sledgehammer. Within a few hours, that car, too was
destroyed. Zimbardo’s conclusion was that disorder invites even
more disorder—that a small deviation from the norm can set into
motion a cascade of vandalism and criminality.
1) conclusion: disorder invites even more disorder—that a small deviation
from the norm can set into motion a cascade of vandalism and criminality.
2) methods of both agreement and difference because it not only compares
with different situation but also compare with similar situation.
14. For years now, violent crimes in the downtown core of this city
have consistently averaged three to four per month. After the police
doubled foot patrol there, the rate has been one or two violent
crimes every three months. That police presence has made a huge
difference.
1) conclusion: That police presence has made a huge difference with violent
crimes in the downtown core of this city.
2) positive correlation
IV. For each of the following inductive arguments: 1) identify the
target group, the sample, and the relevant property, 2) indicate
whether the argument is strong or weak, and if it is weak 3) say
whether the problem is a sample that is too small, not
representative, or both. (15 points)
15. A random, nationwide poll of several thousand readers of Horse
and Harness magazine shows that 80 percent of readers are against
raising horses for their meat. Thus, most Canadian adults think
Canada should ban the consumption of horsemeat.
1) Target group: Canadian adults
sample: several thousand horse owners
relevant property: being in favour of banning horse meat.
2) The argument is weak
3) Because the sample is not representative.
16. For as long as records have been kept, Vancouver has received
over 150 millimeters of rain in the month of December alone.
Therefore, Vancouver is likely to get at least that much this
December too.
1) Target group: Decembers in Vancouver
sample: many years of Decembers
in Vancouver
relevant property: receiving over 150 millimetres of rain.
2) The argument is strong
17. Seventy seven percent of musicians who suggest that their fans
use Spotify recommend listening music on an IPhone. Therefore,
seventy seven percent of musicians recommend listing music on an
IPhone.
1) Target group: musicians
sample: musicians who use Spotify
relevant
property: recommend listening music on an Iphone
2)the argument is weak
3)because the sample is not representative
V. For each of the following opinion polls: 1) determine whether the
poll results offer strong support for the pollster’s conclusion, and, if
they do not, 2) specify the source of the problem (sample too small,
unrepresentative sample, or nonrandom sampling). (10 points)
18.
An Internet site featuring national and world news asks visitors to
participate in the site’s “instant daily poll” of hot topics. The current
polling question is: “Should the words ‘under God’ be stricken from
the Pledge of Allegiance if its recitation is required of public school
children?” Twelve thousand people visit the site on the day that the
poll is taken. Of those, seven thousand answer no to the question.
The site concludes that 58 percent of Americans oppose modifying
the Pledge.
1) The result doesn’t offer a strong support for conclusion.
2) The problem is the sample is not representative and random. The sample is
just the people who visit this website.
19. Lisa carried out a survey to determine if Canadians are willing to
support the arts by contributing money directly to local theatre
groups. One night she and her assistants interview 200 people who
are attending an exhibition of sculpture at the city’s biggest art
gallery. To help ensure random selection, they purposely select every
third patron they encounter for interviewing. There is only one
interview question. “Are you wiling to support the arts by giving
money to local theatre groups?” Seventy-six per cent of the
interviewees answer yes. Lisa later reports that the majority of
Canadians are wiling to support the arts by giving money to local
theatre groups
1) the result doesn’t offer a strong support for conclusion.
2) the problem is the sample is not random and representative. They just
choose the people who like arts because these people who want to participate
the art gallery. It can not represent all Canadians.
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