Homework #8_ Errors in Causal Reasoning and Gambler's Fallacy
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San Francisco State University *
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Philosophy
Date
Dec 6, 2023
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Homework #8: Errors in Causal Reasoning and Gambler's Fallacy
Determine the fallacy committed in each of the following arguments. Choose from
post hoc ergo
propter hoc, confusing correlation and causation, objectionable cause, slippery slope,
and
gambler’s fallacy.
Every argument commits a fallacy.
1. Whenever ice cream sales go up, the number of people who die at sea also goes up. Clearly,
eating ice cream poses more dangers than simply weight gain.
Confusing correlation and causation.
2. A few minutes after Governor Harrison finished his speech on television, a devastating
earthquake struck southern Alaska. For the safety of the people up there, it is imperative that
Governor Harrison makes no more speeches.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc.
3. It seems that fire fighters are responsible for some significant amount of damage done in
fighting fires. Statistics show that the more fire fighters are used to fight a fire the greater the
damage done to structures.
Confusing correlation and causation.
4. Terrorists from the Middle East have crossed over our borders and traveled through the
country at will. Obviously the immigration service is not doing its job.
Objectionable cause.
5. My last three blind dates have been deadbeats. The next one is bound to be better.
Gambler’s fallacy.
6. The quality of education in our grade schools has been declining for years. Clearly, our
teachers are just not doing their job these days.
Objectionable cause.
7. The secretaries have asked us to provide lounge areas where they can spend their coffee
breaks. This request must be refused. If we give them lounge areas, next they’ll be asking us for
spas and swimming pools. Then it will be tennis courts and fitness centers. Expenditures for
these facilities will drive us into bankruptcy.
Slippery slope.
8. Studies show that waking up with one’s shoes on is positively correlated with waking up with
a headache. Therefore, sleeping with one’s shoes on causes waking up with headaches.
Confusing correlation and causation.
9. While Ralph Meehan was governor more crimes were committed than ever before. We must
see to it that Meehan is not re-elected governor.
Objectionable cause.
10. I prayed to God for a new job and 25 minutes later I received a call from Safeway offering
me the position of head of the Produce Department. This is proof that God exists.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc.
11. Immediate steps should be taken to outlaw pornography once and for all. The continued
manufacture and sale of pornographic material will almost certainly lead to an increase in
sex-related crimes such as rape and incest. This will in turn gradually erode the moral fabric of
society and result in an increase in crimes of all sorts. Eventually the complete disintegration of
law and order will occur, leading in the end to the total collapse of civilization.
Slippery slope.
12. Jack flipped a fair coin ten times and it came up heads. So Jack bet his friend $200.00 that
the next time he flipped the coin, it would come up tails.
Gambler’s fallacy.
13. I’ve observed that when a person’s shoe size increases, his handwriting improves. So we
should buy little Jimmy some larger sized shoes so his handwriting improves.
Confusing correlation and causation.
14. If Ireland allows gay marriage, the next thing you know is they'll pass laws to permit same
sex couples to adopt children.
Slippery slope.
15. The gymnast has not fallen off of the balance beam in the past ten meets. I wouldn't bet on
her today. She is bound to run out of luck sometime.
Gambler’s fallacy.
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