A Research Study On Scenario Planning

Officers are faced with moral decisions everyday on and off duty. It is ultimately, up to the person who is faced to make the choice between right and wrong. “Even if a man is answerable only to his conscience, he will answer more responsibly if he is compelled to articulate principles on which he acts.” stated by Lon L. Fuller (1975). We were given a few scenarios to apply this saying to and the following are my opinions that I have regarding them.

The reason the father is reluctant to speak to me about his daughter’s problems is because in their culture they down play personal problems.

In this scenario I would have to enlist the help of my client’s health care providers. Her case is based on a form of emotional attachment as well as many other mental health concerns. This client has a long history of dependency problems. My suggestions to the hospice agency would be to confer with this client’s health care providers as well and to keep me updated on their concerns and plans.

The importance of strategic forecasting within an organization is to focus on long-range goals and attempts to look at all plausible scenarios that can

Planning is considered to be a primary function of management. All organisations operate in a complex, dynamic and competitive business environment, and therefore, have to plan their actions without which they may not be able to survive.

Driving forces and key drivers ultimately determine the necessary endpoints for the four distinct scenarios, which is the desired outcome of the Alternative Futures methodology. This chapter expand upon “Phase Two: Explore” and “Phase Three: Synthesize” of the specific methodology defined in chapter two of this thesis. First, the “Explore” phase outlines all driving forces and key forces that affect the research question. Then the “Synthesize” phase narrows the list of driving forces and key factors down to two critical uncertainties. Finally, the resulting two critical uncertainties leads to the creation of the futures matrix.

Strategy planning involves considerable time. The long time spans could distract the managers from current strategic goals (Grant Attwood, March 2008). The management must be well informed, of the business shocks and the referral changes. Execution must respond to the unanticipated events.

ellent Scenario Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Sales 80,000 100,000 120,000 150,000 250,000 Variable Cost Materials 11,000 12,000 13,000 15,000 18,000 Payroll 30,000 33,000 37,000 38,000 40,150 Contribution Margin 39,000 55000 70000 97,000 191,850 Fixed Cost Rent 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Electricity 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 Total Fixed Costs 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 Net Profit (Loss) 27,500 43,500 58,500 85,500 180,350 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Assets PPE, Net 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000

Scenario analysis explores trajectories of change that diverge from present conditions, ultimately leading to alternative possible future states or events. In so doing, it provides a dynamic and flexible way to evaluate policy or management options. Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts; but rather, they are ‘‘plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships’’ (Houghton et al. 2001:796). Scenario analysis enables an exploration of the potential impacts, risks, benefits, and management opportunities stemming from a variety of plausible future conditions. When used in conjunction with modeling, scenario analysis can help bridge the gap between science and decision making, throwing light on how land use changes will affect hydrologic services across a range of spatial and temporal scales and allowing decision makers to effectively prepare for such changes (Liu et al. 2008a, b, Mahmoud et al. 2009).

A scenario is a view of possible alternatives of the world (events or situations) which are described in a form of a story (narrative) that might help managers make better executive or strategic decisions. A scenario is a process of visualizing what future conditions or events are probable, what their consequences or effects would be like, and how to respond to, or benefit from, them. Scenario planning also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans.

Total has extensive experience in scenario planning. In order to raise competiveness, companies need new ideas and approaches that improve the business. Strategic planning is a multidisciplinary process for determining basic business goals and implementing efforts to achieve sustainable long-term advantage over competitors (Barisic, 2016). Total’s ability to plan scenarios represents an intangible asset over other competitors without this skill or experience.

At most companies managers analyse market and competitor information, threats, opportunities, and then build few years plan for company business strategy. Still many executives have grown sceptical of strategic planning. The process of strategic planning is most often a barrier to good decision making (Mankins and Steele, 2006,

With the help of the central scenarios team, individual businesses also create their own scenarios – at business and regional level - to inform and test their strategic plans. Shell uses a business alignment tool to help individual operations measure their alignment with the Business Principles. It also runs a Shell-wide issues management process, where environmental and social issues from the different businesses and regions are prioritised and managed. Input from this process is fed into the business planning process. Shell’s Business Principles state that investment decisions must take into account social and environmental considerations and an appraisal of the security of the investment. This can be exemplified in the decision-making to move forward on a development project in the Gas and Power business unit. Projects must pass through a “funnel”, and only projects that meet specific criteria at various stages of the funnel are executed. Projects at the early stage have to produce risk and issues matrices and engagement plans, which are considered integral tools to business development. There are

In the banking and finance industry, decisions are made everyday which affect banks as well as clients. For instance, would a change an increase in loan interest rates encourage people to save or would it drive them away from the bank to seek other forms of finance? If it did encourage clients to save does the bank have the capacity to safely handle the inflow of funds or would it much rather invest? In this way, every path taken is capable of yielding a particular set of results. This is where planning comes in. Because the set of results expected is uncertain, a manager has to be able to formulate plans for each one of them to cope with a vast and dynamic environment. Therefore, planning is to managers, a way of managing uncertainty. Uncertainty cannot be eliminated yet instead of idly contemplating limitless possibilities; managers must be able to decide what they want the organization to be and how to get it there because uncertainty can be reduced. For them to do this, they need to go back to the vision and the mission of the organization and then carefully plan for all possibilities (Maznevski, 2009).

Strategic planning is central to management study. It defines the long term direction for the company and all other business functions orbit around their established strategies. This article studies how a company formulates business-level strategies, optimize their competitive positioning and obtain a competitive advantage over their rivals.