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Adley: Activity: Week 2 Paper

Satisfactory Essays

Adley – Activity Week 2 A financial model is a spreadsheet representation of an asset designed to forecast financial results. A change in a variable, or input, alters the model’s result. Similarly, the process of changing variables and altering the results is a straightforward form of sensitivity analysis. Linneman (2011), under the heading: THINGS CHANGE FOR A REASON, cautions “Students and young professionals [that] generally put too much emphasis on numbers and not enough emphasis on the reasoning behind the numbers" (p. 71). The author advocates that economic assumptions and critical thinking are required for authentic sensitivity analysis, as opposed to just plugging in numbers. Nonetheless, Linneman (2011) does admit that “smart investors… with similar information, frequently arrive at drastically different valuations because they perceive differ[ing]ent degrees of risk and opportunities” (p. 71). In addition to being fairly subjective, sensitivity analysis used in financial modelling, has some other basic weaknesses. First, it measures relative change, and not probability. Secondly, certain spreadsheet line-items will alter others such as vacancy upon ancillary income, whereby simulations, or the modification of multiple variables, may …show more content…

Linneman’s (2011) above-noted statement suggests that in lieu of experience, the investor should utilize the similar attributes defined in Folta’s entrepreneurial description of “careful and thoughtful experimentation, leveraging of resources, due diligence and rigorous analysis, and considerable initative” (Folta, 2013). Ultimately, the ability to maximize the property’s return will not rest fundamentally on the pro forma or its subsequent tweaking, but rather the “operating strategy and expertise” of the investor (Linneman, p.

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