Advantages And Disadvantages Of The Dividends Discount Model

The dividend policy has grown over the years. This may be so that the company projects itself as a less risky share and thus also gaining investors faith. The investors buy its shares and thus increase its demand. This helps to gives positive signals to the investors signalling that the company is stable and can generate earnings steadily. This hypothesis is gains standing from the dividend hypothesis theory.

Advantages of CAPM: Easy to calculate, takes systematic market risk into account, and ability to provide a precise estimate of cost of equity.

Woolworths Limited (WOW), which is one of the listed companies in Australian Security Exchange (ASX) (ASX 200), is the largest supermarket in Australia (Kruger 2013), it specializes in the groceries, food and retailing (WOOLWORTHS LIMITED (WOW) 2013). The aim of this report is to estimate and determine the dividend growth rate, stock return and current share price of Woolworths. Methods used for the estimation include dividend growth model, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Gordon’s Growth Model. The results of the estimation indicate that the dividend payments will continuous increasing in the future, the return on the company’s assets is reasonable and its share price is

The capital structure of a company changes the risks exposure highlighting the need to determine the impact of debt levels on financial risk (Pearson Learning, 2014). The dividend payout is the ratio of dividends per share to the earnings per share, and both ratios increased for the three years. The increase in the DPS rose at a decreasing rate resulting in slower growth in the dividend payout. The dividend per share is dependent on the total number of dividends paid out in an interim year, and the increase in the DPS was in line with the management’s efforts to reward the investors as the earnings improved. The dividend yield representing the dividend paid out relative to the share price, and the lower divided yield in December 2014 can be attributed to the higher share price hovering over $40, which was more than double the share price in the previous

Some applications of dividend discount modeling can be more complex. One method divides the future growth in dividends into three periods, all of which have different growth rates. This is useful when a company’s profits are expected to grow rapidly and then gradually decline to an industry average. The complexities of this model are outside of the scope of this report, and the model can easily be run using tools found online. The assumptions of this calculation as follows. Walmart is no longer in a growth phase, so this calculation assumes that it is at the transitional phase. Because of this, 2007 data is used to initialize the calculation (EPS, dividend, etc.,) and the ‘growth’ period was 3 years. Initial growth of EPS still assumed to be 10.4%. 14 transitional years, as required by the model (total of 17 years for growth and transition is required). All of these assumptions result in a 3 stage DDM

Dividend Discount Models 1. The intrinsic value, denoted V0, of a share of stock is defined as the present value of all cash payments to the investor in the stock, including dividends as well as the proceeds from the ultimate sale of the stock, discounted at the appropriate risk-adjusted interest rate, k. Whenever the intrinsic value, or the investor’s own estimate of what the stock is really worth, exceeds the market

Since the emergence of the so-called irrelevance theorem by Miller and Modigliani (1961), many corporations are puzzled about why some firms pay dividends while others do not. They were the first to study the effect of dividend policy on the market value of firms by assuming that there are no market imperfections. Miller and Modigliani (1961) proposed that divided policy chosen by a firm has no significant relationship in as far as the market valuation of the firm is concerned. They went further to explain that; the shareholders wealth remains unchanged irrespective of how the firm distributes it income because the firms’ value is rather determined by their investment policies and the earning power of its assets. They further stated that the opportunity to earn abnormal returns in the market does not exist, that is, owners are entitled to the normal market returns adjusted for risk.

These factors are not reflected in the dividend discount model of JNJ, therefore, the figures of the model need to be analyzed prudently.

The dividend discount model (DDM) is a procedure for valuing the price of a stock by using the predicted dividends and discounting them back to the present value. If the value obtained from the DDM is higher than what the shares are currently trading at, then the stock is undervalued. Therefor DDM is the key valuation technique for dividend stocks and the DCFA put simply, state that the present value of a company is equal to the sum value for all the future cash flows that the company going to

In practice, dividend policy will be affected by taxes as tax rates for different categories of investors will differ. Also, a firm’s dividend policy is perceived by the financial markets to be a signaling mechanism. A cut back in dividends may signify that the firm perceives tough

b. Use the dividend discount (i.e., free cash flow to equity investors) valuation model to estimate the company’s current stock price. • Pe = D1/(re – g) = 700 / (0.11 – 0.05) = $11,667 • price per share = $11,667 / 1,000 = $11.67 3. Same facts as (2) above, except the 5% income growth rate (and beginning of year common equity to support it) are only expected for years 2 and 3. Then growth is expected to be zero and all income is expected to be distributed to shareholders for all future years. a. Compute D1, D2, D3, and Dt for all future years. • Keeping in mind that income is $1,100 in year 1, increases by 5% in years 2 and 3, and then remains constant for all future years; and keeping in mind that beginning of year 1 common equity is $8,000, increases by 5% at the beginning of year 2 and at the beginning of year 3, but does not increase at the beginning of year 4 and remains constant from that point forward, you should be able to compute: D1 = $700, D2 = $735, and Dt = 1,212.75 for D3 and all future years. b. Use the dividend discount (i.e., free cash flow to equity investors) valuation model to estimate the company’s current stock price. Pe = 700/(1+ 0.11) + 735/(1+ 0.11)2 + [1,212.75/0.11]/(1+ 0.11)2 = $10,175.31 and the price per share of common stock = $10,175.31 / 1,000 = $10.18. 4. Same facts as (3) above, except the growth rates are 5% for years 2 and 3 and then 3% perpetually for all future years. a. Compute D1, D2, D3 and the growth in D

In general the three-stage approach allows us to add complexity to the standard dividend discount models by enabling changing growth scenarios throughout the forecasting period: an initial period of higher than normal growth, a transition/consolidation period of declining growth and final a period of stable growth. The main assumptions are that the company on which we conduct the calculation study currently is in extraordinary strong growth phase. The time period with the extraordinary strong growth must be strictly defined and eventually be replaced with the declining growth assumption. Lastly, Capital Expenditures and Depreciation are expected to grow at the same rate as revenues. .

iii. Disadvantages First, without enough consideration of risk cost, DDM may underestimate the equity cost. Second, all of the data is based on historical record, so the result is not reliable considering of the future situations. Third, with the predetermined growth rate, it is obviously practical for the stock investors to estimate the possible profit, but may mislead the stock issuing firm from a better budgeting decision to a comparatively unsubstantial investment.

For this part, I will used Dividend Valuation Model to estimate a fair value of Tesco’s Equity. This is because Tesco is supposed to pay out dividend every year, all things being equal. I will therefore adopt three assumptions from the study guides;

is not this kind of companies. If we want to use the data of dividends, we need to consider the growth rate and future potential changes of dividend. In a word, we don’t think DDM is fit for Nike’s case.