Alex Sharpe's Portfolio Solution Essay

Fama and French’s three factor model attempts to explain the variation of stock prices through a multifactor model that includes a size factor and BE/ME factor in addition to the beta risk factor. Fama-French model essentially extended the CAPM (which breaks up cause of variation of stock price into systematic risk which is non-diversifiable and idiosyncratic risk which is diversifiable) by introducing these two additional factors. Fama and French find that stocks with high beta didn’t have consistently higher returns than stocks with low beta and this indicates that beta was not a useful measure under their model. Their model is based on research findings that sensitivity of movements of the size and BE/ME factor constituted risk, and

We are interested in obtaining the asset beta for Collinsville investment. Here from the reading material, we find there were altogether 6 chemical companies that produce sodium chlorates. They are Hooker, Pennwalt, American, Kerr-McGee, Brunswick and Southern. However, since we are evaluating the addition of a sodium chlorate plant, the two firms (Brunswick and Southern) who specialize in producing sodium chlorate are likely the best “twins”. To determine the asset betas of each company, we

Advisors and investors would do well to pay as much attention to the expected volatility of any portfolio or investment as they do to anticipated returns. Moreover, all things being equal, a new investment should only be added to a portfolio when it either reduces the expected risk for a targeted level of returns, or when it boosts expected portfolio returns without adding additional risk, as measured by the expected standard deviation of those returns. Lesson 2: Don’t assume bonds or international stocks offer adequate portfolio diversification. As the world’s financial markets become more closely correlated, bonds and foreign stocks may not provide adequate portfolio diversification. Instead, advisors may want to recommend that suitable investors add modest exposure to nontraditional investments such as hedge funds, private equity and real assets. Such exposure may bolster portfolio returns, while reducing overall risk, depending on how it is structured. Lesson 3: Be disciplined in adhering to asset allocation targets. The long-term benefits of portfolio diversification will only be realized if investors are disciplined in adhering to asset allocation guidelines. For this reason, it is recommended that advisors regularly revisit portfolio allocations and rebalance

After levering the equity beta, the asset beta of the firms are calculated. As mentioned we think that the three discount brokerages (highlighted in green) should be used as comparables for Ameritrade. The average asset beta of the three firms is 1.386. As a comparison the investment services firms have average asset beta of 0.603 and the one internet company (Mecklermedia) for which enough historical data is

Here we choose VW NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ data as market returns, because it’s value weighted and more reliable. The results show CSC’s equity beta = 2.27, QRG’s equity beta = 1.79.

Beta is the slope of the characteristic line. As shown in appendix1, we use the monthly historical data from April 2003 to April 2008 to graph SCL. We use S&P 500 as the market because it contains the stocks of 500 Large-Cap corporations and can reflect the market change broadly. As shown in exhibit 1, we can get the SCL: Ri-Rf = - 0.001 + 0.1649(Rm - Rf). So the beta is 0.1649 and the alpha (intercept) is -0.001. From the regression line, we find the R square is only 0.103. It reflects the degree that X variable explains Y variable is 10.3%. That is, Ri-Rf has no close relationship with Rm-Rf. In addition, due to the fact that beta is only 0.1649, it also provides the same result which Ri-Rf and Rm-Rf have no strong positive relationship. It is a good issue to consider why Wal-Mart stock return does not relate with S&P 500 return very well. From exhibit 2, we find the Wal-Mart price did not change very much while S&P 500 price went up. The major reasons may be that S&P 500 includes many high-tech stocks and those stocks performed very well during the period; therefore the volatility is greater than Wal-Mart. Moreover, maybe Wal-Mart has lower weight in S&P 500 so its trend of price change is different from S&P 500. From exhibit2, we also find Wal-Mart had good relationship with S&P 500 before 2004. To examine the situation, we use the data from 1998 to 2003 and find the SCL

The historical beta comes from historical data. This kind of beta would slope coefficient in a regression, and associated with company's stock returns and market returns. This approach is conceptually straightforward, and complications quickly arise in practice.

* Stock Beta: Exhibit 5 shows a detailed measurement of the company’s stock returns in relation to the rest of the market through 5-year historical price and index data. The analysis includes monthly returns of both the NYSE and the S&P 500 index in order to capture a comprehensive view of the market return. In each comparison, the monthly returns of the Target stock and market are plotted on Y-axis and X-axis respectively to get the regression line’s slope or beta. The analysis arrives at an average beta of 0.988 which indicates a similar movement of Target stock’s returns in comparison to the whole market over time.

The regression that we performed in excel for both stocks yielded a beta of .73576 for Reynolds, and a beta of 1.4198 for Hasbro. In question 2 we learned that although Reynolds stock was riskier independently, adding it to the portfolio made it more diversified compared to adding Hasbro, due to the fact that it was less correlated to the market portfolio. Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Therefore, since the beta of Reynolds is lower than Hasbro, our beta calculations align with the fact that Reynolds stock makes the overall portfolio less risky. This finding is also intuitive when considering the nature of the companies; Reynolds is a Tobacco company meaning that is should be less sensitive to changes in market conditions than a toy company like Hasbro.

When combining the figures for ROE, ROA and the DuPont analysis it appears that the company is using leverage favourably. ROE is greater than ROA and assets are greater than equity. This is a positive sign for shareholders as it suggests a good investment return in a company that is managing its shareholder equity well (Evans & McDowell, 2009).

We use the equation ri=(Pt-Pt-1+Dt)/Pt-1 to calculate the monthly return of stock of Charles Schwab Corp, Quick & Reilly Group and Waterhouse Investor Srvcs. Then we have two methods to calculate the Beta of Equity for each company.

A common practice to determine the firm’s beta is to draw from historical data from published sources or compare numbers to competitors. In this case, Heinz can compare to Kraft, Campbell Soup and Del Monte and use professional judgement in determining the stock’s sensitivity to the market. A stock’s beta can be determined using a formula as well.

As Star River is a private company and has not issued stock, we need to make several assumptions when calculating market value of equity and price of equity. Analysis of similar companies reveals that Wintronics, Inc. and STOR-Max Corp. are the most similar firms in the market. To calculate Star River’s market value of equity I used market to book value method. I found M/B for Wintronics to be 4.4 (market price per share/book value per share) and 3.9 for STOR-Max. an average M/B ratio is 4.15, so multiplying Star River’s book value of equity of 47004 by 4.15 I found Star River’s market value of equity to be SGD195,066.6M. Average beta of these two companies is 1.615. The global equity market premium is 6%, and I use 10 year Singapore T-bond yield of 3.6% as my risk free rate.

For estimation of betas, the above equation was run for the period from Jan, 2003 to Dec, 2006. Based on the estimated betas we have divided the sample of 63 stocks into 10 portfolios each comprising of 6 stocks except portfolio no.1, 5 and 10 having seven stocks each. The first portfolio 1 has the 7 lowest beta stocks and the last portfolio 10 has the 7 highest beta stocks. The rationale for forming portfolios is to reduce measurement error in the betas.

Using the same market risk premium and risk free rate (5.5% & 4.62% respectively) given in the case, the averaged beta of 1.40, the pretax cost of debt of 7.65%, and the weighted average of debt & equity, the products & systems