preview

Analysis Of Castlekeg's Low PE Strategy

Decent Essays

Although CastleKeep’s Low PE portfolio has outperformed the market in the past, recent performance has not been satisfactory: a cumulative 20.57% gain over the S&P 500 from 8/27/2012 to 10/1/2015 has become 6.37% of underperformance as of 5/31/2017. Further, the portfolio experiences significant fluctuations in its number of holdings. In the nine months from 8/29/2016 to 5/31/2017, the portfolio grew from 17 stocks to a high of 102 companies in April. To improve performance and limit both the number of stocks in the portfolio and the size of fluctuations in holdings, I tested five different changes to the Low PE strategy. Before considering the performance of the new strategies, it is important to note two pieces of context. First, fees …show more content…

This change was intended to reduce the amount of Timeliness 2’s bought, with the dual goal of improving performance and lowering transaction costs by buying only the lowest PE Timeliness 2’s. As I have noted, however, because transaction costs don’t make a significant impact to the portfolio, the goal of limiting transaction costs should only be pursued with the hope that performance will improve. This means that for the change to be effective, the new number of holdings should be low enough that performance should improve by a significant amount because only the best stocks were bought.
As it stands, however, the change reduced the size of the portfolio by an average of only 14 stocks, or 15% of the portfolio (from 89 to 75 holdings). This did not impact performance much: from 1/3/2017 to 4/19/2017, the new portfolio underperformed the original by 1.02%. I personally think this underperformance would not be consistent; in my opinion, the new portfolio could just have well have outperformed, rather than underperformed, by 1%. Because the portfolio composition, and therefore performance, was not meaningfully different from the original, this change does not appear to be worthwhile.
The next change to the original Low

Get Access