Report to the FOMC on Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
April 2015
4/30/2015
B7251 - Group 3
Samar Al Sayyed
Nicholas Blake-Knox
Nisrin Hala
Damian Rozo Munoz
Raluca Tintoiu
Jassen Trenkow (Chair)
Mimi Vavilala
Table of Contents
Part 1: Summary of Current Economic and Financial Conditions 3
Labor Market 4
Inflation/CPI 7
Output/GDP 8
Housing Market 9
Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales 10
Consumer Credit 11
ISM 12
PPI 13
Durable Goods Orders 13
Industrial Production 14
Trade Balance 15
Equity Markets and Mutual Fund Flows 16
Economic Forecasts 17
a. GDP growth 17
b. Unemployment rate 18
c. Inflation rate 18
Part 2: Monetary Policy Alternatives 19
Part 1:
Summary of Current Economic and Financial Conditions
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In these sectors, the economy added an average of 54k, 44k, 27k, and 26k jobs per month over the last 12 months, respectively. Retail added ~350,000 jobs over the last 12 months, with most retail industries contributing to the increase, a key indicator of economic activity improvement.
On the other hand, mining, construction, and manufacturing have recently seen a sharp decline; in Q1 2015, the mining sector 73% of the jobs it created in all of 2014, and construction saw the sharpest retreat.
Figure 5: Net Changes in Fastest Growing And Declining Sectors
Average hourly earnings continued to improve, however, average weekly hours saw a small drop of 10 basis points.
Figure 6: Average Hourly Earnings and Average Weekly Hours Inflation/CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped notably over the last 6 months, albeit we saw a marginal increase in March, primarily driven falling food energy prices. The strong decline resulted in inflation for all components of the CPI turning negative for the first time since 2009, increasing the risk of a deflationary period, and creating additional challenges for potential tightening of monetary policy. Core CPI remains flat at 1.75%, below the Fed’s preferred level.
Crude oil volatility has contributed to the drop in CPI, with WTI losing >50% in 2014, before a marginal gain in recent weeks.
The Federal Reserve is the Central bank of America and act as the lender of last resort. The central bank was founded in 1913 by the then elected members of congress. The Federal Reserve board is comprised of 12 members. The head of the Federal Reserve is the board of governors. Janet L. Yellen is the current Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Janet Yellen also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee which makes up part of the central bank, the System's primary monetary policymaking body.
Arizona continues to add jobs at a very fast pace, comparing the 2nd quarter of 2012 to the same quarter in 2013. During the last year, hospitality, leisure, and construction added the most employment with each one increasing by over 10,000 positions (Hammond, 2013). Health services, professional and business services, financial activities, and education are in the top five and represent 85% of job gains. Arizona’s economy is still making very solid economic growth and continues to improve (Hammond, 2013).
Although business leaders may not have a crystal ball to help them plan for the future, they do have access to a wide range of Federal Reserve publications that can help identify recent and current trends and what these economists believe will take place in the coming months. Given the lingering effects of the Great Recession of 2008 on the American economy today, identifying the future economic outlook for America using this type of freely available information therefore represents a timely and valuable enterprise. To this end, this paper provides a review of relevant publications to identify the Federal Reserve's current assessment of economic activity and financial markets, its current view about inflation and various monetary tools that have been used to stabilize the economic and prices in recent years. Finally, an analysis of the economic outlook for the next 12- to 18-month period is followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.
When there are problems in the United States economy, whom do the people turn to? The most obvious answer is the government. The federal government is given the responsibility of maintaining a stable economy. When the economy is not stable, like during a recession, the American people turn the government and demand that they fix whatever problem is occurring. The government can handle the economy in a recessionary period in one of two ways: expansionary fiscal policy or expansionary monetary policy. The sector of the government that handles the economy using these policies in a recession is the Federal Reserve. The best course of action to get the United States out of a recession is to use expansionary monetary policy.
This report discusses the association between the Federal Reserve System and U.S. Monetary Policy. It mentions that the government can finance war through money printing, debt, and raising taxes. It affirms that The Federal Reserve is not a government entity but an independent one. It supports that the Federal Reserve’s policies are the root cause of boom and bust cycles. It confirms that the FED’s money printing causes inflation and loss of wealth for United States citizens. It affirms that the government’s involvement in education through student loans has raised the cost of a college education. It confirms that the United States economy is in a housing bubble, the stock market bubble, bond market bubble, student loan bubble, dollar bubble, and consumer loan bubble. It supports the idea that the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates because of the fear of deflating the bubbles they have created in recent years.
United States Federal Reserve system, also known as Federal Reserve or simply “Fed” is the United States central banking system. The Federal Reserve took inception in 1913, after the adoption of the Federal Reserve Act. The United States Congress has mandated three macroeconomic objectives to the Federal Reserve. These are minimum levels of unemployment, prices stability and keeping in check the rates of interests. Over the years, the role of Federal Reserve has expanded. It now formulates the country’s monetary policies, conducts supervision and regulation of the banking institutions, maintenance of the financial
Have you ever wondered who influenced modern day writers to explore different styles of writing? The Authors from The Lost Generation were the creators of modern literature. Post World War 1 emerged a new way of thinking. That new way of thinking came from the men and women that served in the war, they were quickly referred to as The Lost Generation. An area heavily influenced by The Lost Generation was literature. F. Scott Fitzgerald was one author that came out of The Lost Generation and reached pinnacle heights. Best known for illustrating his crazy and wild party life into best selling books. Fitzgerald was able to capture the 1920s like no other. His unique writing style influenced those around him. Being a product of The Lost Generation,
The first tool the Federal Reserve has for influencing the economy is through the federal funds rate. This allows a change in interest rates which means that banks may have to pay a higher or lower interest rate to the Federal Reserve for borrowing money. If the rate is increased it slows down the economy because the cost for money and credit is increased as well, but if the rate is decreased the economy is more likely to grow because money then becomes more available for investment and growth. The second tool used to influence the economy is through the purchasing or selling of federal debt. Selling federal debt tends to slow down the economy because people are less likely to invest. Buying federal debt tends to help the economy grow by allowing
For this assignment I picked “the role of the Federal Reserve” a mere recital of the economic policies of government all over the world is calculated to cause any serious student of economics to throw up his hands in despair (pg, 74). The Federal Reserve is now in the business of enforcing the United States government’s drug laws, even if that means making a mockery of both state governments’ right to set their drug policies and the Fed’s governing statutes. A Federal Reserve official who played a key role in the government 's response to the 2008 financial crisis says the government should do more to prevent a repeat of that crisis and should consider whether the nation 's biggest banks need to be broken up. Neel Kashkari says he believes the most major banks still continue to pose a "significant, ongoing" economic risk. The next ten years will see an explosion of government debt and an implosion of government’s ability to fulfill its promises. Any economic or investment model based on past performance under previous economic conditions will be worthless just as useless as the Federal Reserve’s models.
Monetary Policy, in the United States, is the process by which the Federal Reserve controls the money supply to promote economic growth and stability. It is based on the relationship between interest rates of the economy and the total supply of money. The Federal Reserve uses a variety of monetary policy tools to control one or both of these.
While there are expectations of a yearly gain of nearly 2.3 million net new jobs, the unemployment rate is still very high i.e. around 6.5 percent. The lower-than-expected job growth is fueled by various factors including government hiring, weather, and Obamacare. Actually, similar to December, January had a lower-than expected increase in job opportunities since only 113,000 jobs were created. However, the rate of unemployment still reduced to 6.6 percent in this month despite of the growth in labor force. The current rate of unemployment is the lowest in U.S. since the 2008 recession because more people are leaving the labor force instead of finding jobs.
The unemployment rate in the United States has improved dramatically over the last two years, from a high of 8.3% in July 2012, to a low of 6.6% in January 2014. In October of 2012, the civilian labor force increased from 578,000 to 155.6 million, labor force participation increased up to 63.8%, and total employment overall rose by 410,000! Since then, the unemployment rate has been falling at a stable rate due to a political push from Washington DC and new employment initiatives. The inflation rate over the last 2 years has been relatively stably, with a few major increases and decreases in 2012 and 2013. It reached a high of 2.3% in June of 2012, and reached a low of 1.0% at the end of 2013. The federal interest rate has remained at a constant .25% over the past few years.
When offered the opportunity to shake someone’s foundation a bit by testing social norms I was initially hesitant. I thought to myself what could I possibly do that would meet the requirements for the assignment and not utterly embarrass me in the process. As luck would have it I was stuck in yet another endless meeting at work. I found my mind wandering to my “to do list” as often happens in these situations. I remembered this assignment and thought to myself…why not. I then opted to never break contact with people I worked with for an entire day. What better place to start then in a meeting where my victims were essentially trapped.
Testing products on animals may seem like a great way to eliminate the risk of possibly
Forward Guidance is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to provide path for future interest rates to individuals and businesses. Recently, the Bank of England has adopted this policy. In this essay, we will explain the rationale behind the use of this policy with the help of IS-LM model along with AD-AS model. The IS-LM model explains the relationship between interest and income level and changes in equilibrium level through the use of monetary and fiscal policy. Therefore, will be adequate in explaining the logic for applying this policy. Whereas, the AD-AS model may help in analysing the inflation condition of this policy.