Question One
Wally Obermeyer (head of Obermeyer, a leading manufacturer of skiwear) wanted to discover a way of determining the best levels of production in order to make production commitments for the upcoming 1993-1994 season. So far, predicting production has been difficult for Wally, as the first more concrete signals of demand do not appear until Obermeyer participates in a trade shoe in Las Vegas, not long before production is due to begin. The products also face a short life cycle and are only ordered once a season. Therefore determining the correct quantities based on the most accurate estimates of demand are necessary, Furthermore, the company’s buying committee have huge disparities in each member’s demand forecasts for the
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Table 1.1 Production quantities in Hong Kong
Question Two
In order to help Wally decide which product lines to manufacture in either Hong Kong or China, a measure of risk needs to be undertaken for all 10 product lines based on average forecasted demand.
In order to determine what items should be produced where, a risk assessment was conducted for all lines per the average forecast for each line. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) was determined in order to analyse the risk associated with each line, due to fluctuations in demand.
The CV for each parka was derived using the following formula: CV = standard deviation/average forecasted demand. The CVs for each product line can be seen below in Table 2.1
Table 2.1 Risk assessment for each product line
Lastly, so as to determine which lines had more associated risk, it has been decided that any line with a CV of under 0.2 was low risk, and therefore less subject to fluctuations in demand. Those lines are Assault, Seduced, Entice, Electra, and Gail. Those lines with a CV of over 0.2 were considered high risk. Those product lines were Daphne, Isis, Anita, Teri and Stephanie.
Question Three
For Wally to decide what product lines to create in which country, he must calculate the production commitments for the plant in China. The minimum production requirement for China is 1,200 units per line, double that of the Hong Kong plant. At the China plant, there is
The company started off producing 20,000 units of mountain bikes. We did not change the production quantity. Last year our forecast sales were 24,000 when we only sold 19,866; therefore we thought it would be best to leave production at 20,000 bikes. Having excess inventory, we concluded that 20,000 units should be enough considering our quality has not changed and our advertising will not increase the sales dramatically. Although we had the choice to produce as much as 30,000 units, we felt as though we did not have sufficient money to increase production. We were interested in allocating the money towards marketing as opposed to production. We realized that without awareness, no matter how many units we make, sales would be inefficient.
Imagine that you have decided to open a small ice cream stand on campus called "Ice-Campusades." You are very excited because you love ice cream (delicious!) and this is a fun way for you to apply your business and economics skills! Here is the first month's scenario--you order the same number (and the same variety) of ice creams each day from the ice cream suppliers, and your ice creams are always marked at $1.50 each. However, you notice that there are days when ice creams remain unsold but other days when there are not enough ice creams for the number of customers.
investing in plant upgrade options A and C and also consolidating the production of 500 models/styles of branded footwear in a single 12-million pair plant in the Asia-Pacific (to only incur the payment of $14 million in production run setup costs one time).
The objective of these establishments, apart from achieving labor cost savings, was to spread risk. Initially, the various production sites were capable of producing the same types of shoes, indicating an insignificant degree of specialization in the production units. However, in recent years ECCO had strived to narrow each unit and capitalize on its core competencies.
The Chinese department store’s order would require significant communication with the UK based research and development centre which would take time to develop new ideas for products and cost money as well. The factory is also running at high levels of capacity with capacity utilisation of 95% which is 30% more than the UK factory. Since the factory is running at a higher capacity utilisation level it means that the number of defective products has raised as well as the care for quality has decreased and volume has increased. Andrew is worried this might not give the good impression that is needed from the company as they are trying to sell high quality British products. The amounts of defective products in the Chinese
To get a better handle on the options and the risks associated with them, the company estimates the severity of each event and calculates the level of risk (based on severity of the event and the probability of occurrence). The events are then ranked with those exhibiting the highest risks placed at the top of the list. Next, the source of high-risk events is investigated.
Traditionally, the shoe industry was seasonal and based on projections of future trends. Retail stores would need to place orders several months before the shoes would even hit the shelves. As orders were made early in the year, manufacturers would begin production for shipment later in the year. Since inventory supply depended on expected sales, stock could not be quickly replenished as it ran out. The executives at Crocs decided to branch out from the traditional production schedules and develop a lean production model. As sales increased or decreased, Crocs managed to speed up and slow down production throughout the year to quickly replenish depleted inventory. Since the shoes were easily made with the foam mold design, rapid production and order fulfillment came easily for Crocs. This approach attracted the attention of many footwear retailers. With Crocs shoes being made to order, stores could more easily control inventory without worrying about a
Production operations played a huge role on whether to allow more production in North America, or more in Europe-Africa. After many decisions, we begun to notice that North America, and Europe-Africa were our main consumers and had stronger demands for our products, we suddenly realized that we should offer the other more compensation to raise the production. We than decided to offer Asia-Pacific, and Latin America a larger discounts, and longer return dates, to increase the demands.
2) The company’s shipment of digital cameras to retailers in various foreign countries are subject to
The Asia Pacific Africa market grew 3.7 percent and their market share in China soured to a record high of 4.3 percent. “Next year, Ford is on track to open its Changan Ford Assembly Plant No. 3 and Changan Transmission Plant in Chongqing, China, as well as Camacari Engine Plant in Brazil. The new Chongqing Assembly Plant will increase the company’s production capacity in China by 300,000 units next year (Ford’s 2014 Global Strategy, 2013).
Purchasing manager, Benson had difficulty in determining how many bottles he needed to order to support sales. He was concerned about over ordering to avoid issues with overstocking bottles that would not be used and incur a cost or become a loss when all of the bottles were changed with the new design. The challenge for him was to determine an accurate forecast for Greave’s 2004 sales. When a company plans its ordering or production schedule for a product it sells to the public, it must forecast the customer demand for this product so that it can stock appropriate quantities – neither too much nor too little (Albright, Winston & Zappe, 2010).
Thanks to a lucky series of events, Atomic Company has enjoyed a sharp increase in sales of their Tiger Pants line. The most obvious and immediate pains being felt by management is the inability to predict future sales and the high amount being paid out in sales commissions. While these are legitimate concerns, I believe deeper problems exist.
The use of substitutes in the footwear industry is very high because of the large number of companies and similar products in the industry. There is a great deal of rivalry and the customers’ bargaining power is high. If the store experiences a large demand for unusual small or large sizes not kept in stock and cannot fill these request within a reasonable time frame customers could stop patronizing the store. If competitors with similar business models locate in the same area this could pose problems for the shoe store. If Johnson’s misjudges the path of current fashion and over stocks shelves with the wrong products, this could cause problems in moving merchandise.
My decision is to find a methodology of calculating more accurate demand and supply figures to address the unpredictable world of short life cycle fashion. A good decision would result in minimizing the order cycle lead time necessary to produce the ski wear and have it delivered to retailers in time by establishing a method that would ensure each prediction as a personal decision making process and not the thoughts of a few strong-willed individuals. Another criterion would be by gathering data that would provide clear indication how end-consumers would respond to the company’s current line. A good solution would enable Obermeyer to decide on where and when to source each product (China vs. Hong Kong vs. an alternative
The company’s creams inventory remains constant because it does not follow a trend in innovation and changes so often as the other products. The surplus in inventory is a big disadvantage since; last year’s products may not be in style this year in addition to the cost of storage. For all these reasons their cash flow is less in comparison with previous years causing that Luxor Cosmetics keeps increasing their bank loans, creating more debt, making it harder to pay out as 2011. In this particular situation the company could have either decrease its budgeted sales (productions) or increase its actual sales by improving more effective marketing strategy and research and development of its products in the markets. This way their inventory would decrease and their cash flow would increase. (Hopkins, 2009)