Analyzing Time Series Data And Forecasting Its Future Values Essay

The earth’s climate has been changing and will continue to do so in the future. It is only going to keep on getting worse and it is getting to the point where humans will most likely end up in a situation of life threatening diseases and even death. Contagious diseases are spreading menacingly due to weather extremes as heat wave, droughts, cyclones, floods, and tornados (Dhaka). That is just the start of the effect of climate change and its consequences. Many scientists have already warned that millions of people would die in this century because of climate change unless the major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is made (Dhaka). However, there are more than just reducing greenhouse gas emissions to help solve for climate change.

The main industry is the agricultural sector which completely depends on the climate. There are strong linkages between poverty and environmental degradation, particularly poor water management, soil erosion, declining soil fertility and land degradation. In addition, the effects of climate change are undermining an already fragile resource base and have contributed to declining agricultural yields over the past decades. In recent years, drought has become a perennial problem in parts of Kenya. Episodes in 2009 and 2011 generated food emergencies, while flooding in 2010 affected parts of the country severely.

2- Air pressure is not usually a constant that’s why usually impacts therefore it usually weather not climate. Some several key areas of the globe have consistent highs and lows that affect the weather and wind patterns having a huge impact on the climate.

The evidence of climate change in Kenya is undeniable, while its effects on economic growth are no more mysterious; rather, they are rapidly unfolding to a startling reality and concern for humanity. Accelerated emissions of green house gases (GHGs) globally, from combustion of fossil fuels and unsustainable land use practices is the key driver of anthropogenic climate change, which is manifested in; temperature variations, frequent and extensive droughts, intensive rainfalls and floods, seasonal and regional pest and disease prevalence that result to conflicts for pasture and water resources,

As a result of such changes many of these developing countries are exposed to extreme and unpredictable natural disasters such as drought, floods and cyclones. Many of these developing countries are the poorest in the world and have had minor contributions to climate change, however these people are the most vulnerable to these effects and are not capable in making the required adaptations to the changing conditions. At a recent Caritas meeting in Fiji, Father Michael McKenzie said form Kiribati that “For us climate change is a life issue ¬¬¬¬– people are trying to cope with it day by day. For the rest of the world it is an economic

In the words of Barack Obama, “climate change is no longer some far-off problem; it is happening here, it is happening now.” (J. S. World Economic Forum, 2015) This global phenomenon is causing many problems around the world and is affecting both developed countries like Canada and other countries in the process of developing. This report investigates how climate change can pose significant impacts on all countries despite economic stability. Places like Canada are affected by the severe storms and drastic changes in weather and these changes can hurt the environment and the economy. They can also pose threats to crop production and public health. Climate change can also hurt the developmental progression of low-income countries

Shifts in temperature and precipitation will be a shock to fragile ecosystems which depend on specific climatic conditions. Many species will be unable to adapt as fast as their environment changes and face sharply reduced numbers or extinction. Scientists estimate that a warming of just 2 degree will put as many as 30% of the world's species at risk of extinction. Plants and animals aren’t the only ones feeling the pressure of changing ecosystems. Many regions will face severe water shortages in a warmer world, creating the potential for conflict. It is believed that the genocide in Sudan’s Darfur region is at least in part a response to water shortages resulting from global warming.

In the years ahead, climate change will have a significant impact on every aspect of the daily lives of all human beings -- possibly greater even than war. Shifting precipitation patterns and ocean currents could change where and how food crops grow. If icecaps melt and low-lying areas are flooded, as is predicted, entire populations could be forced to move to higher ground. The tsunami of 2004 and Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, provided vivid examples of what large-scale climactic catastrophes entail.

Due to the immense anthropogenic release of green house carbon emissions into the atmosphere, there has been and will be major detrimental effects on human resources and the ecosystem. For example, by the middle of the 21stcentury, River runoff will increase by 40% in northern latitudes and also in a few tropical areas, while in dry regions it will decrease by 30%. Some of these tropical areas have already reported and are experiencing water droughts that will only get worse (Gillman 2008). In addition, if temperatures continue to increase to 1.8-5.4 degrees, food productivity and resources will be affected. When the temperatures reach the lower latitudes of what is predicted, there will be a slight increase in food productivity for a little while. However, when the temperatures reach the higher end of the latitudes, food productivity will

Climate change is one of the most important challenges of humankind in this century. The ability to adapt, mitigate and reduce carbon emissions will be decisive to preserve the world for future generations. The last IPCC report has provided more evidence regarding the rise in temperature and sea level. Apparently, additional 2°C above the pre-industrial average temperature levels is unavoidable, and it will continue at that level due the accumulation of gases in the atmosphere (Solomon 2009). Climate change will affect people all around the world in different ways, though the capacity to cope with it is different among regions and countries. The Latin America region is notably susceptible to climate change, due its geographical position, population location and its economy relying in natural resources (Vergara et. al. 2013a). The withdrawal of the coral biome, glaciers melting, jungles & forest savannization and strongest climate events are only some of the threats that will affect their inhabitants.

Climate change is a rising issue of importance in our day and age, and one that is threatening our global society on many levels. In the past few decades, scientists have discovered that our planet’s climate has been changing at an alarming rate. The way in which we have changed the land to

Climate change is a real phenomenon that is occurring throughout the world and causing problems that stress and cause a variety of problems and issues in society. Some effects of climate change are rising sea levels, increased average temperatures, loss of ice sheet cover, hotter more recurrent droughts and changes in precipitation. Climate change and land degradation have affected the Sahel region of Africa by causing a decrease in arable land and this will lead to conflict and cause millions to become climate change refugees.

Earth's climate is always changing. Many factors can contribute to the cause of changes in Earth's energy. Some changes in climate change are natural. It includes changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of energy coming from the sun. Also, ocean changes and volcanic eruptions are natural causes of climate change.

Global climate change is real, it has noticeable effects on the environment. Climate change in the earth is caused by numerous activities. When climate change happens; temperatures can rise tremendously. Rapid warming notice nowadays is uncommon in the history of our planet. The rising temperatures will have great effects on the plant’s climate patterns and on all living things. When temperatures increase, different adjustments can occur on earth. For example, it can cause droughts, floods, air pollution, as well as extreme heat waves. Oceans are also experiencing changes: oceans are warming and becoming more acidic, glaciers are melting, and sea levels are rising. As these adjustments will occur in the future, it will cause challenges to our society and environment.

The existing literature proposes various methodologies and procedures to predict GHG emissions in the transport sector. In general, these studies utilize time series analysis, regression analysis, decomposition, and optimization models, as explained below: