Annual Value And Volume Of Thailand 's Export

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The paper uses the dataset on annual value and volume of Thailand’s exports to its top 35 destination markets for roughly 6,290 6-digit Harmonized System (HS) products for the years 1992-2013. The 6-digit HS level product code is used because it is considered to be the most suitable available level of disaggregation that allows for comparison across different countries (Bown and Crowley 2006). The export data is obtained from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN COMTRADE). The list of Thailand’s major export markets used in this study is presented in table 2. The export data is further reformatted to match with the product-level information on effectively applied tariff rate including estimated Ad Valorem Equivalents (AVE).…show more content…
The main interest of this paper is identifying trade deflection, an increase in Thailand’s exports to other country i when facing a trade restriction imposed by Thailand’s trade partner; and identifying trade depression, a decline in Thailand’s exports to the third market when that country is targeted by trade restriction from another country. To investigate the question identified by the theoretical model, a standard gravity model equation can be written as follows: xciht = aih + aht + ait + act + ∑_(j=t-2)^t▒〖β '〗_(1j〖 τ〗_(c,usahj)^USA ) + ∑_(j=t-2)^t▒〖β '〗_(2j〖 τ〗_(c,eunhj)^EUN ) + ∑_(j=t-2)^t▒〖β '〗_(3j〖 τ〗_(c,aushj)^AUS ) + ∑_(j=t-2)^t▒〖β '〗_(4j〖 τ〗_(c,indhj)^IND ) + ∑_(j=t-2)^t▒〖β '〗_(5j〖 τ〗_(i,usahj)^USA ) + ∑_(j=t-2)^t▒〖β '〗_(6j〖 τ〗_(i,eunhj)^EUN ) + ∑_(j=t-2)^t▒〖β '〗_(7j〖 τ〗_(i,indhj)^IND ) + ∑_(j=t-2)^t▒〖β '〗_(8j〖 τ〗_(c,ihj)^i ) + εciht , (1) where i denotes an importing country, h denotes a 6-digit HS product, and t denotes time in years. The dependent variable is Thailand’s export to country i of a 6-digit HS product h in year t. aih is country-product dummies to control for country i’s time-invariant effect to all import good h (e.g. distance, transportation costs, culture). For instance, distance affect the trade flow of goods between countries and may affect the chance of a country being targeted for
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