Applying Dependency Structure Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Change in Construction Project

3883 Words Mar 18th, 2008 16 Pages
APPLYING DEPENDENCY STRUCTURE MATRIX AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO PREDICT CHANGE IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
ZHEN-YU ZHAO, QIAN-LEI LV, WEI-YANG YOU
School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power Univ., Beijing 102206,China
E-MAIL: zhaozhenyuxm@263.net, seawolf47@163.com, ywy132639@163.com

Abstract:
Change management is an important aspect in construction project management, as changes constitute the main cause of schedule delay, cost overrun and other distributions. Many change management systems has been developed to minimize the impacts of change or facilitate changes management. However, change should be predicted as early as possible, and the problems can be identified and beneficial modification can be made as
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However, project lever change prediction is not enough for pre-management of changes, detailed information such as change probability and change scope is needed. In this paper, the causes of change in construction project are analyzed in the form of information flow, by using a matrix based methodology. And then, an activity lever change prediction system is designed to simulate the process, during which change happens, to generate activity lever information about changes may happened in construction process.
1.2. Research methodology
The one way to predict changes during Construction Process (CP) is to understand their cause and the process during which change happens, and then use efficient method to simulate this process. In this paper, the cause of change will be analyzed in the form of information flow, and then a method which can graphically represent the information flow in complex system called Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) is used to represent and analyze the information flow graphically. In addition, rework scope is used to evaluate the effect of the information in the form of rework scope. Thus, the process during which change happens can be simulated by simulating the rework scope 's variety. Additionally, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is integrated in the system to enable
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