Assessing Risks with International Diversification
I believe that all investors hope to get a higher than expected return on their investment at a minimum downside risk. Investing in global markets has begun to make sense for an increasing number of investors as U.S. equities only make up less than 40 percent of world equities and an even small fraction of the total world wealth (Bodie, Kane &Marcus, 2014).By 2011, more than 50 countries had an aggregated market capitalization of $1 billion and above, making investing in foreign capital markets much more easier than ever before (Bodie et al, 2014).
Financial Exchange Risk I believe that investing in a foreign country might be risky for an investor from U.S. because the other country
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I think that investors would be interested to look at long-term exchange rate trends, and consider diversifying only in the countries that the U.S. dollar is likely to appreciate against local currency rather than depreciate, so that they can reap an exchange rate premium on top of the return on their investment.
Political Risks Lack of transparency in foreign capital markets has hindered U.S. investors from diversifying to foreign capital markets (Bodie et al., 2014).However cross-border investments have grown as more resources have been invested in analyzing the risks involved in international investing (Bodie et al., 2014). According to Bodie et al. (2014) ,the Political Risk Services (PRS) group a leader in analyzing country specific political risks, produces a country composite risk rating on a scale of 0(most risky) to 100(least risky).Countries are then grouped in five categories from the very low risk (100-80),low risk (79.9-70), moderate risk (69.9-60),high risk (59.9-50) and very high risk(less than 50) according to Bodie et al. (2014). The composite risk rating is a weighted average of political, financial and economic risks (Bodie et al., 2014).To obtain the composite risk rating, the political risk which is scaled from 100 to 0 is added to the financial and economic risks which are scaled from 50 to 0 respectively, and then the total is divided by two (Bodie et al., 2014).Government
The goal of this case is to help Sandra Meyer develop a presentation to address Henry Bosse’s concerns about international investments. The general idea is to demonstrate to Henry the benefits of international diversification, if any. To achieve this goal, you need to have a view on 1) the impact of foreign exchange (FX) rates on the return and risk of international investments, and 2) the impact of having more assets on the return and risk of the investment portfolio To form views on these two points, answer the following questions: I. The impact of FX rates on the risk and return of foreign investments 1a) Using data in Appendix A, calculate the
Advisors and investors would do well to pay as much attention to the expected volatility of any portfolio or investment as they do to anticipated returns. Moreover, all things being equal, a new investment should only be added to a portfolio when it either reduces the expected risk for a targeted level of returns, or when it boosts expected portfolio returns without adding additional risk, as measured by the expected standard deviation of those returns. Lesson 2: Don’t assume bonds or international stocks offer adequate portfolio diversification. As the world’s financial markets become more closely correlated, bonds and foreign stocks may not provide adequate portfolio diversification. Instead, advisors may want to recommend that suitable investors add modest exposure to nontraditional investments such as hedge funds, private equity and real assets. Such exposure may bolster portfolio returns, while reducing overall risk, depending on how it is structured. Lesson 3: Be disciplined in adhering to asset allocation targets. The long-term benefits of portfolio diversification will only be realized if investors are disciplined in adhering to asset allocation guidelines. For this reason, it is recommended that advisors regularly revisit portfolio allocations and rebalance
As previously identified, there are also “non-legal/extra-governmental” political risks which could bring unexpected upheaval to foreign firms. Macro political risks such as the threat of violence, corruption, war or military coup, political instability and terrorism are all direct threats to foreign investors.
The political risk of investing in developed countries is roughly comparable with the risks of investing in the developing countries.
magnitude of these risks, this paper advocates for a more proactive solution. Active investing in
DQ 1: Summarize the most important benefits and risks associated with diversification into global markets.
X- C. The composition of the optimal international portfolio is identical for all investors of a particular country, whether or not they hedge their risk with currency futures
However, the investment was not without risks. There are four types of risks in international business called cross-culture risk, country risk, currency risk and commercial risk. Cross-cultural risk refers to a situation or event where a cultural miscommunication puts some human value at stake. Country risk describes the potentially adverse effects on company operations and profitability holes by developments in the political, legal, and economic environment in a foreign country. Currency risk is the risk of adverse unexpected fluctuations in exchange rates. Commercial risk refers to potential loss or failure from poorly developed or executed business strategies, tactics, or procedures (Boter & Wincent, 2010). Investment in Rulmenti Grei, Timken might face the salient risks of political and economic instability. Romania’s economic growth was slower, inflation was higher, and the labor force was more volatile. Furthermore, there might be a risk of re-nationalization. It is said that economic risk analysis tells corporate leaders the ability of a particular country to pay its debt while political risk analysis tells them whether that country will pay its debt. Political risk measures the stability of individual countries through the
1. Explain why an individual investor might want to invest in an international growth fund?
Another country that I believe is best for investment is in Ecuador. Ecuador is an open market for foreign investment. The investment regulations are the same for the Ecuadorian nationals and foreign nationals. All investors have the same rights and you can enter any market. The economy is stable and the currency is in US dollars. Moreover, Ecuador has a population of 15 million people and has an abundance of skilled workers (https://internationalliving.com/countries/ecuador/invest/). The cost of living in Ecuador is moderately low; for example, you can rent a beautiful house in Quito for a
building strategies to invest in the emerging markets of the Exotican continent, with the primary
A risk analysis is a compilation of detailed factors weaved together to determine the likelihood of success or failure for a project, goal, or investment. Businesses use these to determine the viability or feasibility of a new product, initiative, or opening into a new market segment. A country risk analysis is simply the extension of a risk analysis to include an entire country. In essence, a country risk analysis is a tool used to identify the risks associated with opening a business, creating trade agreements, or investing in a country. A country risk analysis is very important because it takes into account many factors including the current and past political climate, economic risk, geography and climate risks, cultures, and laws pertaining to the country being analyzed. Often, countries are given a grade to enable a quick comparison to how risky investing in one country is compared to another country.
Investing in emerging markets offer tempting advantages to investors. The volatile economies of countries considered to be in this category have a potential for extraordinary returns. A caveat to investors considering opportunities in emerging markets are the presence of unstable governments, the chance of nationalization, poor property rights protection, and large swings in prices. Emerging markets are far from a sure thing. But, despite high individual risk, emerging markets can reduce portfolio risk. The volatile economies of these countries have such low correlations compared to the domestic market that they actually provide the greatest degree of diversification.
They claim that international capital mobility, or, the ability of investors to freely allocate capital around the globe, engenders promise, while simultaneously entailing peril. This paper will attempt to address the arguments of both sides to foster greater comprehension.