Assessing Secular Temperature Trends Of Hawai Ęť I

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Assessing Secular Temperature Trends in Hawaiʻi

May 14, 2015
(Draft) MA Thesis Proposal

By
Marie Maile McKenzie

Department of Geography
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

Abstract Large-scale, global temperature analyses and climate change models may sometimes oversimplify or generalize smaller, regional trends. Only until a few years ago, efforts on climate change projections for island-scale has intensified for more reliable assessments of various impacts of long-term climate trends (Hamilton, 2014). Temperature changes over Hawaiʻi are expected to exceed the current daily maximum values by the end of the 21st century (Lauer et al., 2013). Mountainous tropical islands in the Hawaiian archipelago are showing greater warming than the lower elevations (Giambelluca et al. 2008; Diaz et al. 2011, 2014). Observed surface air temperature trends can also be used to test regionally downscaled climate models. The goal of this thesis is to analyze climate data to assess possible trends that are likely to impact future management of summit ecosystems. This research is essential to the effective protection and restoration of these fragile alpine and subalpine ecosystems. The primary focus of this research is to expand on and update the previous analysis by Giambelluca et al. (2008) by extending the data set from 2006 through to 2014-15 in order to: (a) develop a revised Hawaiʻi Temperature Index to include the more recent data; (b) assess changes that occurred in the

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