Australian Dollar (a$) Against the Japanese Yen (¥) Four Month Forecast from 1st September to 31st December 2010

625 Words Apr 24th, 2011 3 Pages
Australian Dollar (A$) against the Japanese Yen (¥)
Four Month forecast from 1st September to 31st December 2010

Like the other currencies mentioned in the report, the Japanese Yen (¥) also adopts a floating exchange rate. As this is a short term forecast of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY), a chartist approach will be taken to analyse the movements of the two currencies. The technical method and the effects of the government are the topics that will be analysed for this short run forecast (Moffett et al, 2006 p.136). As of the 1st of September 2010 the Australian Dollar $1 = Y75.93.
Technical Method
The first step of the analysis will be using the technical method. The technical method skips the
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As there is speculation of the Japanese government intervening in the rise of the Yen it is forecasted that The Australian Dollar $1 = Y
Conclusion
The forecast of the Australian Dollar against the Japanese Yen has shown that the Yen is most likely to grow as it is in a bear market. From historic data (Appendix 2B) The Yen is steadily growing to where it used to be before the crash in 2008. As the Yen has broken through the resistance level it will lead the Yen to a higher price. Through the speculation of the Japanese Government intervening to slow down the rise of the Yen, the Forecast for the Yen at the 31st of December 2010 is restricted as it is assumed that the government won’t let the Yen rise to high. Due to the nature of the technical analysis and the government intervention the forecast for the AUD against the JPY is set at 82.5-85.

Reference
Moosa, I 2010, International Finance an analytical approach, 3rd edn, McGraw-Hill, NSW
Lien, K 2010, ‘Yen action could lead to volatility: exchange rates’, The Australian, viewed 24th September 2010 <http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/yen-action-could-lead-to-volatility-exchange-rates/story-e6frgac6-1225927002767>
Reserve Bank of Australia, 2010, RBA: Exchange Rate Data, viewed 24th September 2010 <http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.html>
Yahoo7 Finance, 2010, AUDJPY Summary for AUD/JPY, viewed 23th September 2010

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