Essay on BP Amoco Case Write Up

645 Words Jan 28th, 2015 3 Pages
As long-term valuation is assumed, risk free rate is set as 30-year treasury rate, 5.73%. Cost of debt is 6.72% reflecting Amoco’s credit level. Cost of equity is calculated as 10.63%, leading to final WACC at 8.85% (Chart 1).

In DCF valuation (Chart 2), long-term growth rate is assumed to be 4%. Change in working capital is calculated as the average of 1997 and 1996 figure and is assumed to be constant for simplicity. Terminal value is valued at $69,398.1 million and NPV is $51,525 million. Stock price will be $37.07, indicating an exchange ratio at 0.46. This is a very conservative valuation as our DCF price is lower than Amoco’s current market price.

Regarding of multiple valuation (Chart 3), P/E ratio from comparable firms are used
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After discussed all these details, we came back to the final offer price. We offered a higher one as exchange rate 0.6. Amoco rejected. Finally, after they thoughtful discussion they offered 0.66 exchange rate or price 52.965 as their final offer, which for us is lower than our walk-away price 65.94. Therefore, we accepted this offer and we both reach our goals to reach the deal and build a good relationship with the other management team.

The previous 959.6m Amoco shares will convert into 633.336m shares of BP ADS equivalent, with the previous 965.6m ADS shares, BP shareholders will take part 60% of the new company, still have majority control over the firm. In this deal, we paid for about 20% premium, which is quite standard and normal. Because synergies from revenue and chemical divisions’ combination are not estimated nor not expected to bring benefit, the main synergy from the merge is 2 billion dollars saving of pretax operating cost. The value we create for our shareholders is $14,840.06 million (Amoco stand-alone value $46,430 million+ synergy $2 billion – price paid for Amoco $33,538.94). But this number is quite sensitive to a lot of factors, such as future energy demand, oil and gas price, industry growth potentials, ultimately affecting Amoco’s stand-alone and synergy valuation. Please…

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