Bank Of Japan Gets Nervous And Blinks

Using quantitative easing has helped the recovery of the USA and other developing countries. The Fed’s then limited their ability to pursue more measures, but congress ignored those appeals to help support the economy. The Fed’s decided to use smaller steps to help investor expectations and to prevent a possible financial crisis in Europe. In 2011 it was announced that the FED’s would hold short-term interest rates close to zero percent through 2013; to help support the economy. Soon after it was announced that using the “twist” operation would push long-term interest rates down, by purchasing $400 billion in long-term treasury securities with profits from the sale of the short-term government debt. Inaugurating a policy to help shape market expectations, which will raise interest rates at the end of 2014.

To begin, the article explains the Federal Reserve’s plan to take a careful approach to enacting contractionary monetary policies, policies used to decrease money supply, in the future. Last December the Federal Reserve raised the interest rates after they had been near zero for years to ensure inflation was kept in check and to promote economic growth. It appeared the economy would be in for another increase in the interest rates sometime this year, but the Feds have rethought that strategy. If the Federal Reserve were to continue to raise interest rates it would have short-run and long-run effects on the Money Market, Goods and Services Market, Planned Investment, Phillip Curve, and Aggregated Supply and Demand. These effects are aspects that have to be considered because they express and explain the effects the increase in interest rates has on the economy and explain if the Federal Reserve is enacting the correct policy to achieve their goal.

The last five years have shown that traditional monetary policies predicated on interest rate management by the Federal Reserve no longer deliver the economic growth they were once believed to. Keynesian economics has proved to not be as effective as once thought, which has led to the Federal Reserve choose alternative means to stimulate the economy and indirectly manage exchange rates (Hakkio, 1986). The uncertainty over interest rate polices has fortunately not led to increases in inflation, which has typically been the case in the past (Kopcke, 1988). The current economic conditions and the approaches the Federal Research are taking however are cause for concern, and from a personal standpoint many decisions are being evaluated more precisely.

This article presents the fundamental reasons behind the Fed’s cautiousness in raising the interest rates, why it is more likely that interest rates will rise in December, and what some possible outcomes of rising interest rates could be.

The Federal Reserves concerns are many; because of the economic diversity of our country. In November 2002, the fed reduced the targeted federal funds rate 50 basis points, to 1.25 percent. The policy easing allowed the Committee to return to an assessment that the risks to its goals were balanced. The Fed has inflation expectations well contained, and the additional monetary stimulus seemed to offer worthwhile insurance against the threat of persistent economic weakness and substantial declines in inflation from already low levels.

Over the past year we have gone through many changes politically, environmentally, and more. The main change occurring today is the Federal Reserve’s control on monetary policy which affects the interest rates and money supply all caused by the buying or selling of government bonds. The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates because they have “remained relatively slow by historical standards” (Binyamin Appelbaum, July 7, 2017). However, the inflation rate and rate of growth in GDP have been relatively low, restraining the Fed from raising the rates too high.

Finally, the process of normalization has begun, and seven years of zero interest rate cycle came to an end in December 2015 with a hike of 25 basis point by the Federal Open Market Committee. It was a much anticipated move for a while, and now the debate is on the roadmap of future interest rate hikes. Several economist, analyst, and media personalities have expressed a variety of opinion on both ends of the rate hike. Should the Fed continue to raise interest rates now, is the question of global consideration. In my opinion, Fed should continue to raise interest rate now to help the economy grow more independently and build up consumer confidence.

Japan’s unemployment rate of about 4% opposed to the U.S. unemployment rate of close to 10%. Even the financial debt to GDP ration is an advantage, and debt in the private sector has not increased unlike the U.S. and European countries, (Time, 2009). In addition, since Japan is a huge exporter and with the U.S. demand going downward, the international balances and growth declined especially as the dollar value dropped and the yen surged. •

The FED decided to carry out its bond purchasing program in August to help prevent deflation (Hauser, 2011). The article could have turned out much differently if the FED did not step up and take action. In addition the FED has the authority to adjust interest rates in accordance with the current economic condition. Currently the FED is willing to curb inflation by adjusting the interest rates at a moment’s notice (Hauser, 2011). The FED’s invisible hand can sometimes help prevent major economic disasters.

The opinions of FOMC members about the economy were generally optimistic about the future of the U.S economy. However, they were reluctant to increase the federal interest rates, citing that the economy is not exactly a sunny picture, except for the labour market (Ashworth, 2015). For instance, although they predicted moderate growth in the overall economy, the growth in household spending is not growing. This could lead to decreased economic growth and increased inflation

In a world where overseas central banks in Japan and Europe are lowering interest rates and in some cases keeping rates negative, the Federal Reserve Bank (The Fed), is faced with a series of tradeoffs. For example if the U.S. is the only major economy to raise rates then we may attract money from overseas investors who are seeking yield. Sounds good, right? But the flip side is that as this happens, our currency will appreciate and when it does, it costs more for overseas consumers to buy our goods. This hurts our exporters and eventually will weaken our economy.

In the book it explains to us that the interest rate is negatively related to the bond price. In other words, when the equilibrium bond price rises, the equilibrium interest rate falls and vise-versa. There are other factors which led to the down fall of interest rates in the Japanese market. For example, the lack of profitable investments opportunities in Japan, and the business cycle contraction and the decrease of wealth during the business cycle contractions. These all would lead to the increase in bond price and the decrease of interest rates. This application shows us that low interest rates are not a good thing. In Japan’s case, the low and negative interest rates were a sign that their economy was in trouble with falling prices and a contracting economy. The interest will only rise back to normal levels when their economy returns back to a better economy.

The Federal Reserve went into action in response to the 2008 recession by rapidly reducing interest rates with the hopes of encouraging economic growth. The federal funds target rate was decreased to between zero and .25 percent. The results of the rate changes caused what is called “zero bound”, this reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy with the near non-existence of interest rates.

As interest rates bottomed out quickly after the onset of the recession, the Federal Reserve could no longer stimulate the economy with traditional and time-tested techniques. The controversial and unconventional method chosen by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks around the world, is known as “quantitative easing” (QE). QE functions by injecting large amounts of reserve capital into commercial banks with the hope that those banks will then be willing to lend the money at affordable interest rates. Ideally, the addition to economic activity affected by the influx of capital to banks should keep the value of the dollar relatively low, avoiding deflation and encouraging foreign investment by those wishing to take advantage of an affordable dollar. The cheaper dollar should also make American exports look more attractive to potential consumers in other countries. If interest rates stay low, and banks begin lending again, consumer and investor confidence should hopefully rise, leading to more spending and thus, economic growth.

Japan ranks as the third largest economy in the world as of 2010. The GDP at current prices in US dollars in Japan was reported at 5068.06 billion in 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Japan’s resurgence after World War II has however reached an inflection point in yearly 1989 after the burst of Japan’s asset price and real estate bubbles. As can be seen from the graph below, Japan’s GDP has hovered around the same level through more than 20 years of economic stagnation. The GDP’s slow growth has been exacerbated by the world financial crisis of 2008. A major landmark of Japan’s stagnation has been the BOJ’s fight against deflation.