Table of Contents 1. Perspective analysis ………………………………………….2 2.1 Forecasting……………………………………………….2 2.2 Valuation …………………………………………………3 2.3 Sensitivity analysis……………………………………….4 2. Application……...…………………………………………….4 3.4 Challenges and opportunities…………………………..4 3.5 Recommendations……………………………………….5 Reference List…………………………………………………….6 Appendix………………………………………………………….7
1.Prospective Analysis
Based on the reformatting financial statement, this report will use the forecasting template designed by Nissim and Penman (2001) to forecast the future financial performance of David Jones. The valuation of the firm is provided subsequently and the underlying key assumptions are considered for
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From FY2013, DJS focused on improving its profit margins. It has reduced the depth and breadth of its discounting to a sustainable level and ceased lower profit margin categories such as DVDs, music and electronic games in order to boost gross profit margin (Janda, 2013). Moreover, the negotiations for cost price harmonization have helped the company to maintain the profit margin percentage (David Jones, 2013).
* Net Dividend Payout
It is assumed that the dividend payout ratio will be maintained at the high and stable level of 85% in average. This prediction is in consistent with the Board’s undertaking to pay dividends of not less than 85% of profit after tax and the growth od Dividends in line with profit after tax (ASX, 2012).
* Cost of Debt & Cost of Equity
The rate applied to determine the cost of debt should be the current market rate the company is paying on its debt. The forecasted cost of debt after tax is defined as 5%. Based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), where: Cost of Equity (Re) = Rf + Beta (Rm-Rf), DJS has an estimated cost of equity of approximately 13% (4.5% + 1.38 * 6%), representing a risk free rate of 4.5%, the beta of 1.38 sourced from Aspect Fin Analysis, and the market premium of 6%. (Table 2)
1.2 Valuation
The purpose of undertaking the business analysis is to help in the valuation and future decision-making. To convert a forecast into an estimate of the value of the company, in this
The dividend payout ratio provides an idea of how well earnings support the dividend payments. More mature companies tend to have a higher payout ratio. This is well evident with Pepsi Co’s dividend payout ratio of 45.95% as compared to Coca-Cola’s 20.11%. A low dividend payout is always better as it leaves more room for the company to increase dividend payouts in the future while a high ratio means there is less room.
Assumptions need to be made for the Cost of Equity. We used the corporate rate of 11.766%
Given that the cost of equity is 9.4% and the cost of debt is 12.2%, Star’s cost of capital can be calculated as 9.14% (Appendix B). The company was also considering raising the cost of debt to the industry average of 19%. At this cost of debt, Star Company would have a lower cost of capital of 8.24% (Appendix B) because interest on debt capital is deductible whereas dividend payments on equity capital are not.
Although 2012 has seen some increase in the industry revenue, IBISWorld predicted continuous decline until 2014 (Outlaw, 2012). David Jones announced in its ASX Release 40% decline in profit-after-tax in 2012 is expected, partly associated with costs involved in its new strategic initiatives (David Jones, 2012). Myer, David Jones’ closest competitors, experienced decreased total sales of 3.8% and stated in
I have researched the company’s financial reports. There will be a financial analysis of the company comparing its present to past two years’ performance and to the performance of its major competitors.
Government interest rates from Table B, 8.72%. The 10 year rate was chosen to be consistent with time lengths. Then the value for equity, debt and the firm need to be calculated, this is a simple step. The market price of the shares is multiplied by the number of outstanding shares to find the value of equity and the book value of long term debt is used for the value of debt and the value of both equity and debt are added together to come up with the value of the firm. The weight of the equity and debt can now be calculated by dividing the value of equity or debt by the value of the company. Lastly, the tax rate was calculated by using the balance sheet, given in exhibit 1, to determine income taxes paid and dividing it by earnings before interest and taxes for each of the last ten years then by taking the average of the ten years tax rates.
|Making firm business decisions |analyze the financials, make the decision, and interpret the results. |statements and the accounts, and the proper financial ratios to |
1. Such analysis allows the firm to determine at what level of operations it will break even and to explore the relationship between volume, costs, and profits.
Thus the WAVG Cost of Debt (including L/T debt and preferred stock) = rd = 8.633%
Our analysis attempts to answer the question, “What are the things a company must consider when analyzing a new investment or project?” According to the text, a firm’s first objective when deciding to take on new debt should be that its return on net assets (RONA) should be greater than its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Since we are working with an income statement only and do not have an amount for net assets, we will instead use return on invested capital (ROIC), which measures how well a company is using its money to generate returns. Comparing a company 's return on capital (ROIC) with its cost of capital (WACC) reveals whether invested capital was used effectively. From our spreadsheet calculations we see that using our estimated operating profit provides us with a 19.9% return on invested capital with only a 7.2% weighted average cost for that same capital. If these numbers are even close to correct, George should definitely make the move.
The cost of debt (kd) rate of 13% was used after we assessed the key industrial financial ratios and compared them with that of Wrigley’s (See Appendix 2) to conclude that it was in the range between the BB rate of
The Following involves the analysis of the costing techniques followed by the company along with its Budgeting system. It also involves the Investment appraisal analysis for the given data.
The valuation of business for the purpose to arrive at the share value would be based on historical set-up cost rather than current market valuation
This section is to perform a comparison on the business values in terms of Total
After that, according to the information what they have to analyze values. In the end, this analyze may make shareholders obtain a benefit.