Can China Avoid Japan's Deflationary Fate?

For the last twenty eight years, China has been quickly growing into one of the largest economies in the world. China has accomplished this feat, in part, by radically changing their policies on trade and free market interactions with other countries. During this process, China has bought approximately one hundred trillion dollars of United States debt in the form of Treasury bills, notes, bonds, and Inflation Protected Securities (Amadeo). This debt has given China leverage against the United States which has enabled China to keep the value of the United States dollar high, while keeping the value of the Chinese yuan low. As the inflation of the dollar continues to negatively affect the

These effective strategies helped Hong Kong overcome the financial crisis. All these facts fully demonstrated that China is a responsible big country. After the Asia financial crisis, the importance of China's economy has been brought into focus; China's neighboring countries have begun to recognize the influence of the Renminbi.

In 2008, the Global Financial Crisis broke out; both the American economy and the economy in the West suffered a hard blow. However, a big economy system in the East emerged unexpectedly. China is now able to challenge the America’s decades-long dominant position in economic area. Started during the middle of 1990s, China’s manufacturing industry developed rapidly that billions of exports were floating out, and China was given the title of “the world’s factory”(BBC). By the end of 2010, China with a GDP of $5.8 trillion, surpassed Japan’s GDP of $5.48 trillion, became the world’s second largest economy system (BBC). China also exceeded Japan became America’s largest foreign securities holder. Since then, China has been seen as the US’s

1. What are the implications of China’s exchange rate policy on doing business with and “against” China?

Australia has experienced an impressive economic boom in recent years on the back of selling natural resources, including coal and iron ore, to its Asian neighbours, and China accounts for more than a quarter of its exports. So weakness in the Chinese economy is bad news for Australia. Research by consultancy Oxford Economics last week, which modelled the impact of a 10% Chinese devaluation, accompanied by a sharp slowdown, suggested other hard-hit countries could include Brazil, Russia, Chile and Korea. If Beijing allows the yuan to decline further in coming months, it could increase trade tensions, or even a “currency war”, in which the world’s big trading blocs face off in a beggar-thy-neighbour battle to seize the largest possible share

since 2000 (Edwards, S., 2005).” As a result of the increase in foreign demand for U.S. assets, Americans have had access to foreign investment enabling the United States to function with large deficits for years. Looking forward, the United States dollar and the economic health of the country is very dependent on foreign investment in U.S. assets. A potential risk looms in the chance that Asian central banks might lower their demand in U.S. assets resulting in a sharp decline in the U.S.

Although further deepening analysis of the relevant literature can be exerted here to focus on the impact of how China stabilising the exchange rate to strengthen their current account systematically makes their monetary policy more volatile to external environments. Further discussion on this issue is pivotal to express the apprehensions the Chinese government faces, as a more flexible exchange rate would avoid the damaging consequences such as the Asian financial crisis as private savings suffered (Roberts & Tyers, 2003).

China, the largest growing market in the world, currently has a policy regarding monetary regulation that allows the Yuan to “float”. This has seen the Yuan appreciate by approximately 24% over the past few years. Today, the exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan and the American Dollar is approximately 6.3 Yuan to 1 Dollar. Some argue that China should revalue the Yuan again the dollar, establishing a more fixed exchange rate. Others believe that current should allow

In order to prevent the current crisis from deepening, immediate actions are required from the major industrial countries and from the international community. There is evidence that the world economy is experiencing a major slowdown, which may deepen if inadequately managed. For example, Japan is in its worst recession since the war, much of East and South-East Asia is in depression, Russia is experiencing a major downturn, growth has stalled in Latin America, and the prices of primary commodities and a number of manufactures are falling in international markets. Authorities in the industrial countries must nonetheless continue to be alert. Several downside risks still remain, and current policies may prove insufficient to prevent the world economy from slipping into recession. Expansionary fiscal policies may be required in other industrial economies, in addition to Japan. It is also crucial that the rules of an open international trading system should operate smoothly, allowing the economies that face adjustment to reduce their deficits or generate trade surpluses with the more vigorous industrial economies.

Finally given the slowing economy in Asia the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reclassified the yuan. Previously the IMF considered it to be “substantially undervalued” compared to other currencies. The IMF has softened its tone toward the Chinese yuan and it is now considered “moderately undervalued”. This new designation makes it harder for the United States government to make a case against and therefore policies to target the imports based on the Chinese yuan. (Davis, 2012)

Since the financial tsunami and the bankruptcy of Lehman’s Brother in September 2008, the world’s economy took a deep plunge and the Chinese economy is no exception. In the wake of the global financial crisis, The Economist (2008) reported that China’s real GDP growth slowed to 9 percent in the third quarter of 2008 and export growth slowed to 21.1%. It was, in fact, well below analyst expectations and recent

Secondly, the fixed dollar-pegged exchange rate system and monetary policy, the independence of the existence of a fundamental conflict, undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy cannot meet the needs of economic development. Monetary policy autonomy is essential for China’s macroeconomic stability; monetary policy should take precedence over the independence of significant exchange rate stability. But the Yuan against the U.S. dollar exchange

In recent years, China’s balance of payments always keeps “double favorable balance”. In 2005, China’s national economy developed quickly and stably. The exchange rat of RMB became more flexible. The current account surplus increased obviously and the capital account surplus decreased. The foreign exchange reserve still increased quickly. In 2005, Chinese government did some fiscal policy and monetary policy. Such as decreased government expense, raise the tax rate, used managed floating system, improve the foreign exchange management, enlarged the foreign exchange market. We can conclude that china’s BOP will still keep “double favorable balance” and keep

With China's deepening Opening Up and economic restructure adjustment and the continuous appreciation of RMB in recent years, the

The US and Europe felt that the RMB was undervalued for several reasons. One reason is that China’s exports had dramatically increased, growing 30% from 2004 to 2005, making China the third largest exporter in the world and accounting for