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Cardiovascular Events Case Study

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Cardiovascular events A total of 705 CVD events (564 IHDs, 141 strokes) occurred, during 49452.8 follow-up person-years (minimum 0.1, maximum 12, median 10.9 years). IHD comprised of 39 (20 women and 19 men) fatal and 113 (36 women and 77 men) non-fatal MI, 331 (171 women and 160 men) UA, and 81 (26 women and 55 men) sudden cardiac deaths. Ischemic stroke composed of 30 (16 women and 14 men) fatal and 111 cases (57 women and 54 men) of non-fatal stroke. The total CVD event rates were 1.6 per 100 person-year for men and 1.3 per 100 person-year for women, without adjusting for age. Follow-up person-years, CVD events, and the levels of risk factors of the baseline examination are shown in Table 2. Table 2. Person-years of follow-up and CVD events according to risk factors in men and women, ICS, 2001-2011. Refitted and recalibration of Framingham function The CVD risk factor regression coefficients and HRs were estimated from sex-specific ICS regression models using the same variables as those in the Framingham function (Table …show more content…

Comparison of relative risk and performance of ICS and Framingham The C statistic value for the recalibrated Framingham function applied to ICS was 0.700 (95% CI, 0.671- 0.729) and 0.748 (95% CI, 0.721- 0.775) for CVD prediction in men and women, respectively. The value of χ2 was 6.23 (p=0.62) and 12.19 (p=0.14) for men and women, respectively. The recalibrated Framingham model overestimated the CVD incidence with the overall bias of 128.23% and 176.07% in men and women, respectively. The 10-fold cross-validation, yielded a mean AUROC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.73) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.77) in men and women, respectively. PARS risk function Having considered the variety of predictors and their interactions in a multivariate Cox regression, significant predictors of CVD events were age, sex, high WHR, SBP level, TC level, diabetes mellitus, smoking status and family history of CVD. The optimal PARS model is presented in Table

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