The regional internal net population flow data from 2006 to 2014 financial years (FY) at the SA2 level are downloaded from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) . The SA2s in Australia are general-purpose medium-sized areas, aiming to represent a community that interacts together socially and economically. For example, population of SA2s usually ranges from 3,000 to 25,000 persons, and has an average about 10,000 persons . Considering that the State Government policies influence agribusiness and peoples’ movement substantially, we restrict our case study within 102 SA2 areas in the NSW state, see Figure 1. The case study region (i.e., the MDB in NSW) represents approximately 56.5% of the total land area of NSW and approximately 39% to …show more content…
We also observe that net population flows are decreasing among 73% of the SA2s during the study period (Figure 2).
2.2 Socio-economic data
Employment is often a key indicator of the population movement. Hence, we include the unemployment rate (%) in our modelling. The quarterly unemployment rate data are obtained from SLA Markets publications, the Department of Employment, Australian Government. To minimise the variability inherent in small area estimates, the Department provides smooth data, i.e., a four-quarter average, at the SA2s from 2010. Before 2010 data are only available at the SLA . The SLA has a spatial misalignment with the SA2, and to overcome this issue we use the dynamic spatial modelling technique (Bakar et al., 2015) and estimate the quarterly unemployment rate from 2006 to 2009 at the SA2 level. Details of the modelling approach are provided in the supplementary section. To match the yearly time-series format of the net population flow data, we aggregate the unemployment data at the FY level and consequently calculate the maximum and the average unemployment rate at each SA2s.
Figure 3 shows a boxplot of the average unemployment rate over the years. We observe that the last four FY years (2011 to 2014) have high volatilities, which indicate a decrease on the unemployment rate at some SA2s and an increase at others. This also reflects the
In any economy, no matter whether it is controlled by the government or by free markets, people need to work in order to support it. The government does not generate tax revenue by magic. There have to be people in that economy earning an income to ensure that the government continues to collect taxes. In a free market economy, the same applies because there are some services which only an organized government can supply (such as protection from extra-national threats), but there also those which the people get for themselves because of the working of the markets. In any scenario, unemployment is, at the very least, a drag on the economy, and it can be much worse. This paper examines how the unemployment rate in the United States is underreported, and how that fact effects the sluggishness of the present economy.
The unemployment rate is divided into variables; such as employment level, unemployment level, labor force and stock variables. At a certain time in a recession they are measured in quantities. Due to a flow of variables such as natural populations, net immigrations, new entrances, and retirements there is change to the labor force.
Beginning with unemployment in the 2007-2009 recession, U.S. unemployment rates peaked at 10% as well as held 41 consecutive months at rates higher than eight percent (Lazear 1). The U.S. economy plummeted during this time; many attributed the shift to a large decrease in the number of employed workers. To be able to better understand the unemployment issue, we must first examine the form of unemployment faced by the U.S. economy. Many believe that the changes faced by the U.S. labor market
1, from 2010 to 2014, the number of people who receive employment insurance beneficiaries has been in decline, falling from around 700 thousand people to as low as almost 500 thousand, which corresponds to the decline in unemployment rate in fig. 2. However, the rate of EI beneficiaries is decreasing more intensely than the unemployment rates, which suggests that there are more unemployed workers who don’t receive EI as each year passes. Moreover, the EI beneficiaries have been slowly increasing for the past year, which can possibly be due to the higher unemployment rates from recent oil prices dropping in Alberta and other outside
The Depression was a gruesome time where people had worked relentlessly to survive. Unemployment today is as severe as it was in the 1930s, the unemployment rate of today is nowhere near the unemployment of the Great Depression. A pair of economists with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas created report called “A Historical Look at the Labor Market During Recessions”. The report is a graph of the WWII Recession, showing that the unemployment rate of a few years ago has past the unemployment rate of the WWII Recession. In 2008 the authors wrote the Unemployment Rate, it’s a report that describes the recessions of the past to the years of 2006 to 2011. The most of the recessions are above or near the average, but the highest recession is the Great Depression.
In fact, much of the recent reduction in the deficit is due to the decline in unemployment” (p. 1). With record high deficits within the last years the idea of the government spending to spur the economy that ultimately would help reduce the unemployment level seems near impossible without further affecting the deficit rather than helping reduce it.
Blacktown’s economic competitiveness is vulnerable by an inadequate supply of knowledge-intensive industries and also a supply of the required labour in the local government areas. This is evident in a record of statistical data relating to the number of people in Blacktown employed in management and professional occupation. In comparison to Blacktown to the rest of Sydney, it is conveyed that Blacktown city is significantly less by reading the analysis of the employment status of people aged 18 to 24 years (as a percentage of the labour force) in
Educating oneself about the economy is a rigorous task seeing as it has several different aspects to it. Unemployment and the related topics in the chapter sparked an interest within me. Fortunately, I was able to find an article that covered this topic in a state I’ve come to love- California. The article, “California adds 54,200 jobs in May; unemployment rate ticks up to 6.4%”, provides visual representation of the data stated and provides quotes and opinions from people among the Californian population. This produces additional support for the article. The fact that the situation is occurring in California, along with visual representations, gave reason for my decision in choosing this article.
The unemployment rate averaged 8.5% in 1975, almost 10% in 1982, and has been above 8.8% for more than two years, with little evidence of any improvement ahead.”
According to Roderic Beaujot and Don Kerr (2007), center of attention of population projects is a future calculation of migration,
In August, two locales had unemployment rates fundamentally not quite the same as the U.S. rate of 4.9 percent: The Midwest, at 4.5 percent, and West, at 5.3 percent. Throughout the month, no area had a measurably critical unemployment rate change. Noteworthy throughout the-year rate diminishes happened in two areas: The South (- 0.5 rate point) and West (- 0.3 point). Among the nine geographic divisions, the West North Central had the most minimal unemployment rate, 4.1percent in August, trailed by New England, 4.2 percent, and the South Atlantic, 4.5 percent.
The United States is currently experiencing a slow recovery from the recession of 2008-09. The current unemployment rate is 7.7%, which is the lowest level since December of 2008 (BLS, 2012). However, this rate is believed to higher than the rate that would occur if the economy was operating at peak efficiency, and it is also believed that there are structural issues still underpinning this performance. For example, the number of Americans who have exited the work force as the result of prolonged unemployment is believed to be higher than usual. In addition, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, 2012) notes that long-term unemployment of greater than 26 weeks is at a much higher rate than normal, which will have adverse long-run effects on the economy, since workers with long-term unemployment often find their career paths derailed.
The unemployment rate in the United States has improved dramatically over the last two years, from a high of 8.3% in July 2012, to a low of 6.6% in January 2014. In October of 2012, the civilian labor force increased from 578,000 to 155.6 million, labor force participation increased up to 63.8%, and total employment overall rose by 410,000! Since then, the unemployment rate has been falling at a stable rate due to a political push from Washington DC and new employment initiatives. The inflation rate over the last 2 years has been relatively stably, with a few major increases and decreases in 2012 and 2013. It reached a high of 2.3% in June of 2012, and reached a low of 1.0% at the end of 2013. The federal interest rate has remained at a constant .25% over the past few years.
The debate about the relationship between inflation and unemployment is mainly based on the famous “Phillips Curve”. This curve was first discovered by a New Zealand born economist called Allan William Phillips. In 1958, A. W. Phillips published an article “The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of money wages in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957”, in which he showed a negative correlation between inflation and unemployment (Phillips 1958). When the unemployment rate is low, the inflation rate tends to be high, and when unemployment is high, the inflation rate tends to be low, even to be negative.
Unemployment has always been something that Americans have worried about since the great depression in which one in every four people was unemployed. High unemployment has an impact on every one even those whom are still currently employed. For example if the unemployment rate is particular high then even those with jobs get worried. Unemployment is also separated in to distinct categories base on which group is the focus of the study. The categories can be by race, age or location, for example the unemployment rate of those between the age of sixty and sixty-five could be compared those between the ages of thirty and thirty-five. These categories allow economist to see which groups are the best and which groups are worst off. One group