Case Study : Strategic Human Resources Planning

Forecasting should include the use of both quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecast demand for its products.

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1. demand analysis: to assess the sensitivity of the demand forecast to changes in population growth, per capita consumption, prices, etc.

Of the many strategic and tactical uses of forecasting, the most critical from a cost standpoint is to mitigate risk and optimize potential revenue gains over time. The best forecasting frameworks and implementations balance risk mitigation and optimized revenue levels to stabilize the entire value chains of businesses (Hanafizadeh, Moosakhani, Bakhshi, 2009). The forecasting process over time can become an indispensable aspect of any broader strategic and knowledge management process including serving as a highly effective system of record (Kahn, Adams, 2001).

Companies forecast in different ways and for different reasons. For the sake of my current employer, some of the reasons to why they forecast is to ensure that there are plenty of cellular phones in stock or even to make sure that the company has enough numbers to assign to customers when they purchase wireless service from us. The following paper will compare and contrast various forecasting methods while also elaborating on the method that my current employer use for forecasting sales and mobile identification number (MDN) requirements.

The two main forecasting techniques that can be used to project a sales forecast are quantitative and qualitative. The type of forecast model to be used depends on forecast horizon, available data, accuracy required, forecasting budget, and the individuals forecasting (Jacobs & Chase, 2011). Qualitative methods are more subjective and rely on leadership for the projection so a certain level of experience and knowledge is needed for an accurate forecast. Quantitative methods rely on mathematical calculations using historical data or external data factors that affect the sale of the product.

Vanguard Demand Planning is geared to help manufacturers forecast demand for all resources required in the manufacturing process

Time series techniques are the most popular quantitative method. These techniques use statistical methods for projecting from historical data. Quantitative techniques are preferred when appropriate data are available. The main assumption is that the historical pattern will continue into the future. The two main types of time series forecasting are average smoothing and exponential smoothing. The moving average is simply a series of arithmetic averages. Predicting sales for next year is simple. The actual sales for a certain number of years is added, and then divided by the number of years used to get the moving average. A weighted moving average is obtained by assigning a specific weight to previous years. The sum of all weights must equal one. Recent years are given a higher weight (Namvar, 2000, p.13).

Forecasting is an integral part in planning the financial future of any business and allows the company to consider probabilities of current and future trends using existing data and facts. Forecasts are vital to every business organization and for every significant management decision. Forecasting, according to Armstrong (2001), is the basis of corporate long-run planning. Many times, this unique approach is used not only to provide a baseline, but also to offer a prediction into the corporation 's future. In the functional areas of finance and accounting, forecasts provide the basis for budgetary planning and cost control. Marketing relies on sales forecasting to plan new products, compensate sales personnel, and

Forecasting techniques followed: Lead time to customer starting from procurement of raw material. Stages where the fluctuations can be

It is a challenge for organization to predict the market demand (“Just-in-Time”,2012). However, they have to ensure that their supplier can supply them different volume at different times, as for the peak seasonal periods more orders coming in, meaning that the organization going to need more raw materials. So, the organization must have a well plan, they have to forecast the demand and supply of future time accurately (“What is

But in end use method of forecasting, statistical information related to customers along with amount of change act as the basis for the forecast.

Forecasting ultimately benefits businesses in decision-making, planning, and budgeting. Forecasting is heavily dependent on the company’s ability to make

Forecasting demand is the art and science of predicting future demand. There are several different techniques that can be employed alone or in combination with each other, depending upon the firm’s particular situation and the point in the product’s life cycle, and they are further classified as to the time horizon they represent. Forecasts are generally quantitative (relying on historical data) or qualitative (such as variable personal experiences).

Probing into the methodology of sales forecasting adopted by different experts, Looking into definition and scope of the terms used in the