Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis

1.1. Review principles of estimating project cash flows. Suggested reading: Ch. 9 “Capital Budgeting and Cash Flow Analysis” in “Contemporary Financial Management”, 11th ed. by Moyer, McGuigan, and Kretlow.

Free cash flows of the project for next five years can be calculated by adding depreciation values and subtracting changes in working capital from net income. In 2010, there will be a cash outflow of $2.2 million as capital expenditure. In 2011, there will be an additional one time cash outflow of $300,000 as an advertising expense. Using net free cash flow values for next five years and discount rate for discounting, NPV for the project comes out to be $2907, 100. The rate of return at which net present value becomes zero i.e.

Estimate the project’s operating cash flows for each year of the project’s economic life. (Hint: Use Table 2 as a guide)

The relatively well posed project with promises of great future pay offs must be examined closely nevertheless to determine its true profitability. As such, the Super Project’s NPV must be calculated, however before we proceed we must acknowledge the relevant cash flows. The project incurred an expense of testing the market. This expense, however, must not be included in our cash flow analysis because it can be considered a sunk cost. This expense is required for ‘taking a temperature’ of the market and will not be recovered. Other sources of cash flow include:

2. Use the projections provided in the case to compute the incremental cash flows for the PCB project. Provide a reasonable estimate for cash flows after 2009 as well.

3. Estimate the project’s NPV. Would you recommend that Tucker Hansson proceed with the investment?

(TCO B) You are the project manager for three projects. You are about to estimate costs for these three projects. Given the below information on each project, recommend an appropriate estimation method and justify your answer for each.

When implementing project 1, you face technical and market risk. How would you assess the risks embedded in Project 1?

7) See Table 1 NPV=42,318.71 IRR = 14% MIRR = 12% Payback period= 2.93 years. Yes the project should be undertaken.

Thus, by year three the company will be making a profit off the investment as year three is 86.73 million profit by 55.35 cost giving the company a 31.38 million dollar surplus. Generally, a period of payback of three year or less is acceptable (Reference Entry) causing this project to be viable based off the payback analysis. Although, these calculations are flawed. The reason for this is because the time value of money is not taken into effect when calculating payback periods which is where IRR can further assist in a more realistic financial picture (Reference Entry).

4. What kind of debt (agency debt, bank debt, or Rule 144a bonds) should the sponsors of the project use to fund the deal? What are the advantages and disadvantages of each kind of debt? In your view will project bonds receive an investment grade rating? What is the“weakest link” of the project? How can they improve the likelihood of getting an investment grade?

The present value of the net incremental cash flows, totaling $5,740K, is added to the present value of the Capital Cost Allowance (CCA) tax shield, provided by the Plant and Equipment of $599K, to arrive at the project’s NPV of $6,339K. (Please refer to Exhibit 4 and 5 for assumptions and detailed NPV calculations.) This high positive NPV means that the project will add a significant amount of value to FMI. In addition, using the incremental cash flows (excluding CCA) generated by the NPV calculation, we calculated the project’s IRR to be 28%. This means that the project will generate a higher rate of return than the company’s cost of capital of 10.05%. This is also a positive indication that the company should undertake the project.

6.The Year 0 net investment outlay for the project is $-475,000. This computed by adding the price of the machinery, installation, shipping, and the change in net working capital. The non-operating cash flow when the project is

4. Based on the information provided in the case, our group calculated the NPV for the project under both tax environment and tax-free condition, respectively, by using the excel spreadsheet and the NPV function. (For a detailed calculation of NPV, please refer to Appendix Under 15-yr.) According to our calculation, we have the following results: In the first case scenario, which the firm is in a tax environment (35% income tax), the NPV of the project equals to -$6,366,054.53

5. The project is assumed to end in year 4. Do you think that this is realistic? Can you estimate the value of the project’s operating cash flows beyond year 4? State any assumptions you made.