China 's Economic Growth Is Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, And Unsustainable

761 WordsOct 28, 20154 Pages
In the National People’s Congress press conference in March 2007, China’s Premier Wen Jiabao argues the biggest problem with China’s economy is that its economic growth is unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable. Since export and investment play unsustainable roles in increasing China’s real GDP, this study tries to testify how consumption enhances the sustainability of China’s real GDP in the short run over a long period of time. As Krugman (1994) suggests, increase in the economic growth rate in the steady state can only be attained by the technological progress. However, it is also true that the increase in consumption will increase the real GDP in the short run. Based on the fact that the current ratio of consumption over output in China is much smaller than that of other countries, such as Japan and the United States, a higher ratio will increase China’s real GDP in the short run. Since it takes several years for China to change its economic structure toward consumption, the accumulation of each larger real GDP in the short run will result in a much larger real GDP in the long run. In other words, the increase in consumption will increase China’s economic growth rate indirectly. Therefore, this study uses a macroeconmetric model of Chinese economy to quantify what China’s real GDP would be in a series of increases in the ratio of consumption over output, spread over a long period of time and predicts what China’s real GDP level will be in the future

More about China 's Economic Growth Is Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, And Unsustainable

Open Document