Cognitive Biases And Structured Analytic Techniques

The analysis is then given to consumers and policy makers, once it is checked by the analyst supervisor and peers. The analyst should also be ready to give a briefing on short notice. But both the analyst and the policy maker or consumer have to be aware of at all times, is that the intelligence field does not know everything. “On any given subject, the intelligence community faces what is in effect a field of rocks, and it lacks the resources to turn over every one to see what threats to national security may lurk underneath” (Pillar).

In the United States alone, approximately 20% of Americans experience a mental illness in a given year, and 1 in 25 Americans live with a serious mental illness that significantly impacts one or more life activities (NAMI.org, 2015). These disorders span across the lifetime, many starting by the age of 14, and mental health care is often the root of progress or hindrance for a person whose life is impacted by these unseen disorders. Though it is not always evident that an individual is experiencing mental illness, these complications influence the daily lives of millions of people worldwide, regardless of age, culture, race, religion, or other delineation. As a result, it is vital that this sector of healthcare be thoroughly examined for inefficiencies,

Bias is something every person has; It is the inclination to feel prejudice towards a certain person, subject, or thing. On a personal level, bias affects just about everything a person could encounter, or has yet to encounter in their lifetime. There are two main types of biases people can have; Cognitive bias involves topics such as social attribution or memory errors, that are quite common and have a wide range of effects on how humans perceive things. The other type of bias is called social biases, or sometimes referred to as attributional bias. Attributional biases affect our everyday social interactions, and has a strong impact on people when trying to assess their own and others behaviors.

) The “Tradecraft Primer,” lays out three primary intelligence analysis techniques. They are, “[1] diagnostic techniques are primarily aimed at making analytic arguments, assumptions, or intelligence gaps more transparent; [2] contrarian techniques explicitly challenge current thinking; and [3] imaginative thinking techniques aim at developing new insights, different perspectives and/or develop alternative outcomes.”

Substantial burden to individuals and communities are outcomes of the most occurring disorder within the United States, anxiety disorder. Even though effective treatments for anxiety disorders have been developed, there has been extensively less focus on intervention techniques directed at the betterment regarding anxiety-related risks and care factors (Keough & Schmidt, 2012). Advances in prevention programs for anxiety and its disorders are presently in its early stage of development. On July 11, 2014, a study was conducted to test an adaptation of a Cognitive Bias Modification program to minimize anxiousness predisposition. It evaluated the causal relationships between rendering preconception of physiological cues, anxiety sensitivity,

The concept of analytics-based decision marking takes into consideration industry knowledge and business analytics which includes four acts (Bartlett, 2013). The four acts help prepare analytics to support an anticipated decision and illustrate a process for analytics-based decision making. As a result, the role of statistical thinking, the interaction, and relationship between industry knowledge and analytics, as well as where things can go wrong in a real business problem can be revealed (Bartlett, 2013). In addition, moving from one act to another seamlessly, jumping back from and forth from one act to another or simply following some other route is easy to do in a real business problem. This annotated bibliography will examine articles that contain resources that support the concepts contained in the four acts.

Strategic decisions require careful and purposeful skills of analysis, creativity, and informed problem solving. The best practice for decision making is identification, inventory, and intervention (Davenport, 2009). Identify the decision to be made for the organization, identify the factors that influence that decision (who, what, etc), and apply purposeful action to implement that decision. Decision-making tools can assist with the decision making process. Tools such as, Case-Based Decision Analysis, Information Aggregation Tools, cost-benefit analysis, gap analysis, or SWOT analysis. can help to evaluate the current state of the company and how to proceed with a decision for the future. Case-Based Decision Analysis tool focuses on data collection of past experiences, situations, and solutions. By tracking past results it can help to make more informed decisions in the future. Information Aggregation Tools uses external data that relates to a specific issue at hand, evaluates data that has served as solutions to such issues, selects supported alternatives, and, lastly, rates the compatibility of such proposed solutions to the issue at hand. A cost-benefit analysis is a type of strategic decision-making tool that assesses the cost and potential benefit associated with different courses of action and choosing

A cognitive bias in which people will have the tendency to believe that a statement, idea, or information is accurate if it is either positive, meaningful, or if it’s personally addressed to them. Many people believe in biorhythms, horoscopes iridology, cold reading, and tarot cards because they appear to have the solution to their problems which is meaningful. In addition, many mediums and palm readers depend on subjective validation because it is easy to convince others that they are linked to unrelated events. (Pages 120, 122-123).

I don't think so at ordinary times but sometimes when I have to decide something, I feel that I have a cognitive bias. I wonder about cognitive bias and I want to know more. So I picked this for my topic. First, I found the definition of cognitive bias. On my way, I found a video about cognitive bias. The content is as follows.

Understanding how our brain works can help us understand why all individuals have unconscious biases. Blair (2007) gave an example of the elephant and the blind man story where six blind people, who have never seen an elephant, had different description of an elephant (pillar, rope, thick branch of a tree, big hand fan, huge wall, solid pipe) based on what they touched. On the one hand, they were all right but, on the other, they were all wrong as they just had the chunks of the bigger picture. This gives us an insight of what humans are like and how they see the world based on the lens of their experience.

The United States Intelligence community draws on advanced technology and analytical techniques. An intelligence process that sets objectives, collects, analyzes, and report findings, with feedback loops integrated throughout. Explicitly, the intelligence community advantages technology and tradecraft within a proscribed process. However, estimation of threats and decision-making are outcomes of human thinking. Analysts and policymakers create mental models, or short cuts to manage complex, changing environments. In other words, to make sense of ambiguous or uncertain situations, humans form cognitive biases. Informed because of personal experience, education, and specifically applied to intelligence analysis, Davis

The challenge to an intelligence analyst, as mentioned by Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff, is the lack of experimental, independent testing within a controlled environment. That does not necessarily mean that the intelligence analysis process lacks a formal process or is absent scientific methodologies. Based on Knight (2010), intelligence research identifies patterns through observation so that an analyst can develop a hypothesis to predict future events the very premise of the scientific method. However, the IC has acknowledged a scientific gap and has been migrating towards a more ?coherent scientific discipline? based on the need to improve performance of intelligence analysis (Johnston, ). Furthermore, intelligence analysts are provided with scientific methodologies at their disposal that they can use to strengthen their estimates. In the analyst?s toolkit there are a variety of techniques that can be used to strengthen processes and conform to more valid scientific methods. Heuer (1999), the author of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), use ACH as an eight-step procedure using basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. According to Bruce, ACH attempts to eliminate cognitive bias and provide other explanations with possible outcomes through testing hypotheses in an attempt to refute or ?disconfirm? them (Bruce, 2008, p. 175). After all, the challenge to inductive inference is not in supporting a study?s conclusions, but refuting them through scientific means. Heuer?s ACH methodology attempts to reconcile this weakness and has become a recognized advancement towards this goal. In Bruce?s essay (2008), he acknowledges that had the 2002 Iraq NIE utilized this methodology, the estimate?s weighty findings should have exposed the

Additionally, the distant relationship model enables analysts to work on a problem set of their choice as long as it is within the bounds set by their intelligence manager. While enabling analysts to have such freedoms is perceived as a positive it can also be a negative. Intelligence analysts own agenda can take the forefront while their consumers ' needs lose the necessary precedence. Also as a result of being too distant from the policy maker, the needs of the policy maker may not be known; therefore, intelligence may not be produced on a problem set of interest to the policy world.

The study divided this task into four different areas. The first area, labeled concept tactic, used a solution to a problem to guide the decision. The second, problem solving, uses an existing problem to direct the decision. The third area, objective setting, uses a preferred performance level to decide the course to follow. The last area, reframing, uses benchmarking to prove that a decision must be made. The last area was implemented more times in the study than the others. I believe that this is because competition is very fierce, and executives often feel that they must keep ahead of others in their industry. By comparing themselves to others of equal size and direction, companies must act fast if they want to keep their competitive advantage.

There will be 2 parts to external analysis; it will be done based on general environment and competitive environment. External analysis is basically analyzing the factors that are not within the control of an organization for the general environment part. As for the competitive environment part, the strength of an organization’s current competitive position, and the strength of a position it is considering moving into will be identified to help prepare itself for every possible happenings in the near future.