Comparison and Contrast of Forecast Methods

1585 WordsNov 25, 20067 Pages
Comparison and Contrast of Forecast Methods MGT 554 Operations Management University of Phoenix Professor Leonard Enger May 1, 2006 TABLE OF CONTENT Cover Page……………………………………………………….1 Table of Contents………………………………………………...2 Seasonal Forecasting……………………………………………..3 Delphi Method……………………………………………………4 Technological Method……………………………………………5 Time-series forecasting…………………………………………...6 Company Forecasting Methods…………………………………..7 Conclusion………………………………………………………..8 References………………………………………………………..9 Comparison and Contrast of Forecast Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast, this paper will compare and contrast the Seasonal, Delphi, Technological and Time Series method of forecasting. Factors to…show more content…
http://www.ryerson.ca/~mjoppe/ResearchProcess/841TheDelphiMethod.htm Technological Method The Technological Forecasting method is used to analyze the market for the life span of an existing technology to determine if its close to end of like and to see if a new product or technology is ready to enter an existing market. It is also used to identify competing new technology and to forecast sales. Before a new innovative product enters into the market Technology Forecasting is one of several methods used to determine if customers will buy it. The Technology method should always be used in conjunction with other tools to identify prospective customers, prototypes, focus groups, interviews, market testing, internet polls and other tools to get a better understanding of the market. The major techniques for technological forecasting is numeric data and judgmental. Numeric data-based forecasting extrapolates history by generating statistical fits to historical data. Judgmental forecasting can also be based on past projection but like the Delphi method it relies on the subjective judgment of experts. Keep in mind that technological forecasting is most appropriately applied to capabilities, not to the specific characteristics of specific devices. Other Numeric data techniques are Trend Extrapolation, Qualitative Approaches, Growth Curves, Envelop Curves and Substitution models. Techniques used by Judgment-Base method are Monitoring, Network Analysis,
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