Comparison and Contrast of Forecast Methods

All businesses are confronted with the general problem of having to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Management must understand the nature of demand and competition in order to develop realistic business plans, determine a strategic vision for the organization, and determine technology and infrastructure needs. To address these challenges, forecasting is used. According to Makridakis (1989), forecasting future events can be characterized as the search for answers to one or more of the following questions:

* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.

Identify and use at least two appropriate statistical analysis techniques (such as conversion of leads to sales, correlations between variables, measures of central tendency, time series analysis, etc.) to identify market trends and development based on the data that you have collected. Your report should describe why you selected the statistical analysis techniques to identify market trends and developments.

Forecasting is used in all businesses. Forecasting is used to help businesses decide how much they should produce and where to sell a product. Forecasting can aid a company in knowing the lifecycle of a product, which can help them to determine when and if they should discontinue a product. Forecasting can also help managers close the gap between supply and demand. If a forecast is properly predicted the supply of a product can satisfy the demand of the product. Forecasting is not always accurate however, and can lead to either over production of a product or underproduction of a product.

3. Market Share: forecasting will help in identifying the size of the market share and market potential will aid in the manufacturing and distribution process. Will also aid in proper utilization and eliminate waste.

Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in today's uncertain global marketplace. Forecasting is

Bonner, A. (2009). Forecasting models for the german office market. Published dissertation, School of Business Administration, Economics Law & Social Science, University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen, Switzerland. Retrieved January 16, 2011 from

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

The same data will be utilized in this case study but simple exponential smoothing will be utilized to help analyze the data. The information we decided to focus on for the purpose of this case was the sales data from our client`s lottery app. We will use this information to calculate the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the first twelve months assuming the calculation for January represents its actual sales. Two different alphas 0.15 and 0.90 are utilized in order help determine our assessment.

This case study reviews the strategy followed by Union Investment Group (UIG) to analyze customer behavior patterns using predictive analytics (Union Investment GmbH, 2015). With the business objective of boosting profitability and staying ahead of the competition while facing a customer base that demanded individualized product offerings, UIG teamed with IBM to determine the problem at hand. After describing the problem, this case study next considers the stakeholders involved, other expert opinions, recommendations, and caveats.

The purpose of this report is to demonstrate the forecasting power of statistical data analytics. We will use a time series dataset to conduct the forecasting, since this type of datasets contain a set of observations generated sequentially in time. Organizations of all types and sizes utilize time series datasets for analysis and forecasting for predicting next year 's sales figures, raw material demand, monthly airline bookings, etc. A time series model is useful to obtain an understanding of the underlying forces and structure that produced the data.

Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in today 's uncertain global marketplace. Forecasting is traditionally

Current customers drive the business decision of any industry and managers are get incentives to keep focus on current customer 's requirements. Authors claimed that the empirical data suggest that leading companies develop and introducing new technologies to meet future requirement of current customer base. Moreover, new entrants were able to commercialize new technology with lower performance targeted to new customers base and emerging market. Whenever a business case is presented with respect to new technology or product in front of higher management, it got evaluated based on the returns, net present value and return on investment. In absence of previous data and clear forecast of numbers in terms of unit and customers base, it seems unattractive as compared to current technology served to mainstream customers. Managers put resources to satisfy the need of conventional customers and ignore the future customers. Business

Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the information gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will assist in the achievement of certain goals. Forecasting involves taking historical date and using it to project future data with a mathematical model. Forecasts are extensively used to support business decisions and direct the work of operations managers. In this paper I will introduce different types of forecasting techniques.

Most new technologies follow a similar technology maturity lifecycle describing the technological maturity of a product. This is not similar to