Correlation Between Interest And Rate Rates

Page 3: Introduction to the Financial System Page 7: Commercial Banks Page 12: The Share Market and the Corporation Page 15: Corporations Issuing Equity into the Share Market Page 19: Investors in the Share Market Page 24: Short-term Debt Page 28: Medium- to Long-term Debt Page 32: Interest Rate Determination and Forecasting Page 37: The Foreign Exchange Market Page 40: Factors that Influence the Exchange Rate Page 42: Futures Contracts and Forward Rate Agreements Page 47: Options

Since people always prefer money right now to the present prospect of getting the same amount of money some time in the future, the present good always commands a premium in the market over the future. This premium is the interest rate, and its height will vary according to the degree to which people prefer the present to the future, i.e., the degree of their time-preferences. (Ebling, 1996, p.82)

The economic performance of a country has an impact on its currency exchange rate. A country with political and economic stability will attract foreign investors and foreign capital which will lead to an appreciation of its currency while a country with political turmoil and poor economic performance will result in a depreciation of its currency. The GDP growth rate is used as a proxy to economic performance in the regression model. The GDP growth rate measures the rate at which an economy is growing. Chowdhury and Hossain (2014) used the GDP growth rate as an independent variable to examine the determinants of exchange rate in Bangladesh. They found that the GDP growth rate has a positive relationship

2) Interest rate parity (how exchange rate is determined by the flows of capital) and

The strength of the U.S. economy is important for Canada’s trade, economy and exchange rate. Increasing U.S. unemployment can positively or negatively influence the value of the loonie. Canada’s dollar can increase due to demand from buyers looking to invest in a stable economy with low risk. On the other hand, Canada’s GDP is dependent on U.S. trade. If less Americans are purchasing goods in Canada due to increased unemployment, the Canadian dollar will fall. Therefore, it is inconclusive that unemployment rates solely influence the rise of the Canadian dollar. There are many other factors that influence the exchange rate, such as commodity prices, investor confidence, overvalued currency and inflation rates.

One important determinant of a country 's exchange rate in the long term is whether it has a higher or lower inflation rate than its trading partners. The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) suggests that the exchange rate between two countries will adjust to ensure that purchasing power is equalised in both countries. If a country 's inflation rate is persistently higher than that its trading partners, its trade-weighted exchange rate will tend to depreciate to prevent a progressive loss of competitiveness over time. In addition, political events can also impact the exchange rate, as seen with the ‘Malcolm Turnbull effect’ which lifted the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar, at US70.68c broke US71c in overnight trade after Turnbull discussed the need for economic reforms to counteract "challenges" facing the slowing local economy. Shortly after Mr Turnbull was confirmed as the victor against Prime Minister Tony Abbott, the dollar additionally rose one-third of a cent.

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE ASSIGNMENT 2 _ Answer Key PROBLEM I (30 points) Suppose the quarterly (90-day) interest rate in the US is 2.5% and it is 4% in Canada. If the $/CD spot exchange rate is $0.80/CD and the 90-day forward exchange rate between US and Canadian dollars is $0.79/CD , does the interest rate parity (IRP) hold? Why or why not? If it does not hold, what is the direction of the capital flow?

Management’s assessment of risk associated with interest rates is high. Exposure to market risks results primarily from fluctuations in interest rates. Their objective is to enter into derivative instruments to primarily decrease volatility of net earnings and cash flow associated with fluctuations in interest rates. They have financial instruments that are sensitive to changes in interest rate, as well as several outstanding interest rate swap agreements.

During the second half of 1997, currencies and stock market prices plunged in value across Southeast Asia, beginning in

As the world’s largest economy, every move the United States makes has widespread effects throughout the global markets. Around the world, there has been speculation of whether the U.S. will raise interest rates by the end of 2015. With all indications pointing to a rate increase, concerns have arisen about the potential ripple effects on the rest of the world. Fundamentally, raising interest rates come hand in hand with an appreciating U.S. dollar. In many parts of the world the U.S. Dollar is used as a major benchmark of current and future economic growth. For developed countries, a strong U.S. dollar can be viewed as positive, however emerging economies will face a different fate. As the world becomes more financially intertwined,

Considering the following regression model: BRi=β0++β1(Y)+β2(Z)+ui which connects the bank rate (BR) of Canada to foreign exchange rates(Y) and CPI(Z). In this model X1 and X2 are the corresponding independent variables exchange rates and CPI measured in decimals. There were three estimation methods that were used to estimate the model: The Durbin Watson test is used to test the presence of autocorrelation. The residual values from the regression analysis helps determine if there is a relationship between values that are lagged. The result of the Durbin Watson test lies between 0 and 4 and depending on the value it will show the presence or absence of autocorrelation. The value that is closer to 0 indicates that there is positive autocorrelation, 2 indicates that there is no autocorrelation and values approaching 4 indicate that there is negative autocorrelation. For the hypothesis testing I’ve used the F-Statistic testing, in the later section of the paper I will explain my findings and the results.

Thus the rationale behind changing the nominal exchange rate under a fixed or pegged exchange rate system is easy to follow provided that the set rate is found to be far away from the optimal or equilibrium rate. However, why does the central bank need to manage exchange rates which are determined by market forces in case of independent floating? This remains a contentious issue. Essentially, the central bank is believed to determine the appropriate level (or path) of the nominal exchange rate and then intervene in foreign exchange markets to bring the actual exchange rate close to the appropriate level. In practical sense, the appropriate level of the exchange rate may represent the rate which, when translated into a real exchange rate, is consistent with the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate. Many economists of neoclassical persuasion believe that the market determined exchange rates broadly represent the long-run equilibrium exchange rates and there is no need for managing exchange rates or intervention in foreign exchange markets.

Official interest rate changes will also influence asset prices. For example, bond prices are inversely influenced by long-term interest rates. Finally, the official interest rate will also affect the exchange rate which the paper defines as “the relative price of domestic and foreign money” (George et. al, n.d.). When the official interest rate rises, domestic currency (the GBP) will see appreciation making investors want to invest in pounds. Another key point is that with changes in the exchange rate, there will also be a change in the value of domestic and foreign exports and imports. Finally, a change in the official interest rate can also affect people’s expectations and confidence in the economy. For example, some may believe that an increase in interest rates is a signal that the MPC thinks that the economy is expanding thus making further growth likely or, a contradictory interpretation may be that the MPC thinks that the MPC may need to slow growth in order to control inflation (George, n.d).

Such a process can be very time consuming and imprecise, without, of course, having a market currency price to begin with. The exchange-rate system is an important topic in international economic policy. Policymakers and journalists often seem to treat the choice of exchange-rate system as one of the most important economic policy choices that a national government makes, on a par with free international trade. Under most circumstances and for most countries, a system of freely floating exchange rates is likely to be a better choice than attempting to peg the exchange rate.

Li Tiandong and Jiang Boke (2006) point out that the relationship between exchange rate and employment depends on the coaction of three mechanisms: (1) the effect of exchange rate changes on aggregate demand; (2) the effect of exchange rate changes on prices of capital goods; (3) the substitution effect of exchange rate changes on the relationship between physical and human capital.[4]