Correlation Between Stock Market Returns, Inflation, And Money Growth Essay

Why is inflation bad for the American economy? Imagine going into the popular local food market or gas station several times a week. After a couple of weeks, imagine going into these stores and noticing the prices have steadily increased over the past few months. This is called inflation, and it is causing many problems in the United States. There are three different types of inflation: demand-pull, cost-push, and built-in. Demand-pull inflation occurs when prices increased because of such high demand. Cost-push inflation is when prices surge resulting from high input costs. Built-in inflation is when prices continue to rise after any natural causes. The inflation occurring in America is a demand-pull. Inflation has affected the United

A Study on S&P 500 Index Stock Return and Volatility using ARIMA and GARCH Modeling

In 2008, share prices dropped mainly due to the US sub-prime crisis, which started in 2007 (Lixi, 2008). This had a huge impact on the P/E ratio for 2008, which is slightly below the threshold of 10 times. The P/E ratio for ANZ was higher than NAB in 2009 and there was lesser fluctuation in ratio. Share prices tend to rise with improved economic conditions, and with stimulus packages being distributed all over the world, there was uplift in the global economy, hence driving share prices (Larsen, 2012). However, falling earnings over 2009 caused both P/E ratios to rise. NAB’s P/E ratio increased a significant amount and overtook ANZ’s. Over the 5 years, NAB’s P/E ratio fluctuation is observed to be consistently higher than ANZ’s. Moreover, NAB’s higher P/E ratio might be due to investors’ high expectations, which were not supported by earnings.

A macroeconomic item (or factor) may be generally categorized as anything that influences the direction of a particular large-scale market (Investopedia, n.d.). For this analysis, the macroeco-nomic factor shall be interest rate (i.e. discount rate). The following sections that scrutinize the implications of changes to interest rates to the Company’s Present Value* (PV), based on its Free Cash Flows* (FCF); discuss the impact of an issue within the overall stock market on the Com-pany’s stock valuation numbers, other financial variables, or its overall portfolio management; and analyze and discuss the impact of an external factor to the Company.

A lot of literatures have already studied about the inflation and inflation prediction and in this paper literature review will be discussed from the theoretical aspect and empirical aspect. The researches of the inflation, which are studied, by a lot of scholars in the field of economics have been conducted for a long time especially during the 1970s and it is the heyday when people would like to pay more attention to research the inflation. The inflation has become a hot topic among the economic life and social life since 1987. However, no matter whether it is in the western economic field or in the Chinese economic field, people have different definitions on the inflation and so far there is no unified opinion and conclusion can be accepted generally by everyone. For example, Wyplosz and Burda (1997), Blanchard (2000), and Barro (1997) define that inflation is a sustained rising in the overall price level of products and services in an economy throughout the time period. By contrast, Zha and Zhong (2016) define that inflation is considerable as the mechanism to improve economic growth. In general, the common definition of the inflation is that the inflation is a continuous rising process in the aspect of price. In other words, the value of the currency decreases continually.

3. An analysis of stock market conditions including recent returns on stock market indexes and average valuation ratios such as P/E ratios of stock market indexes.

The 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) (Shah 2009, p. 25) has caused the share prices of BHP, CBA and TLS to drop rapidly from 2008 to 2009, apparent from the 10-year historical data of the three companies’ share price (Appendix 1). This shows that the all three companies’ share prices are influenced by the GFC, which means the GFC has the similar result in the calculation of three stocks’ expected return. Hence, the data from that period are included in the data choice.

However, while these measures are important, it wouldn’t be prudent to make longer-term investment decisions based on a few statistical measures alone. We need to consider overall investor sentiment and broader economic trends, as well as global markets. Regardless of the magnitude of the recovery going forward, the US will lead the way, in either direction. The graph below illustrates the degree in which major developed markets influenced global real GDP growth over the last several years. The US continues to be the dominant player and we don’t expect that to change anytime soon.

While we are in the midst of a recovery, it remains in the context of a high-risk, slow-growth world. Government debt as a percentage of GDP has risen substantially since the financial crisis and is acting as a drag on economies. Ultimately, growth in real GDP depends on growth in the workforce and growth in productivity; neither appears promising. Given that backdrop, the portfolio remains invested in companies that have proven that they can grow their free cash flow, even in a tepid economic environment, and have a disciplined approach to allocating cash that will create value for shareholders.

Zhavo (1999): Attempted to find out the relationship among inflation output (industrial production) and stock prices in the Chinese economy. The study employed monthly values covering the period from January 1993 to March 1998 the results indicated a signification and negative relation between stock prices and inflation. The finding also indicated that output growth negatively and signification affects stock prices.

This section will focus on the analysis about how bubbles affect investors’ behaviors. Since bubbles are closely connected with crises, doing research on investors’ behaviors about overvalued assets can help economists to understand crises’ fundamental. Therefore it is good for governments to take actions to prevent these crises. The first part of this section will describe the definition of “bubbles” in detail, and the second part will illustrate relevant empirical evidences to further explain how bubbles affect investing behaviors.

Diff: 1 Topic: 9.1 Stock Prices, Returns, and the Investment Horizon S k i l l : A n a l y t i c a l

First time this phenomenon was presented by the economists Rajnish Mehra and Edward Prescott in 1985. They discovered that the return from US equity investments in comparison to the return from a risk free government securities had been much far above during the twentieth century to be interpreted by the traditional economic theories (Siegel and Thaler, 1997).

In the past 20 years, the central banks in most developed countries had successfully managed to control the inflation rate. However, the financial crisis 2008 has highlighted the links between financial market and policy. (Ravn, 2011) The topic I am going to discuss is the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market. What factors have influenced interest rate and how the policymakers should react to the change in stock market have driven the increasing attentions lately. Taylor Rule (2003) will be the core theory used to discuss the model tested. The interpretation of simple Taylor rule is very straightforward. According to the equationi_t=c+β(π_t-π_t^* )+γ(y_t-y_t^* )+ε_t , the policy will be mainly affected by inflation gap and output gap. (Woodford, 2001) The reason why Taylor uses interest rate to represent monetary policy is that the central bank likes to adjust interest rate as a tool to maintain the balance in the market. While, there is a strong debate about the other variables, in particular, stock price volatility. After taking asset price volatility into account, the augmented Taylor rule equation will be reformulated as:i_t=c+β(π_t-π_t^* )+γ(y_t-y_t^* )+∑_(k=1)^n▒〖δ_k s_(t-k)+ε_t 〗. It will influence the monetary policy while the importance of asset price in the market is very controversial. Scholars including Bernanke and Gertler question the importance of asset price in determining the monetary policy and claim that the influence

To increase and maximize the wealth/value of shareholders, it is necessary that the company is competitive in their market and can reliably “earn a considerable return on its investments above their cost of capital” (Doyle, 2000). The increasing rates of return of well performing companies attract new investors who invest money to become shareholders. These outside funds from investors are essential for growth of businesses and the expansion into new markets. Measurements of generated shareholder returns over a certain time period deliver the company useful information on whether their objectives have been achieved or should be new adjusted (Atrill, 2009).