Critical Thinking Chapter 3 Summary

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In Chapter 3, there were 12 areas of bias spread across the 3 areas of heuristics. The main theme of the text was to prove that we are predisposed to certain outcomes. As we make important decisions we rely on our memory, or a number of past events, or even ignoring facts. Overall, we are biased in many ways when it comes to making decisions, or predicting outcomes of a particular event. The first area was the availability heuristic section. There were two biases that indicated whether or not you were making the right decision. The first was ease of recall, or the fact that we tend to decide things based on what comes to mind easily. The second was retrievability, the fact that we base decisions on the frequency of a particular pattern or event. We base many of our decisions on these two concepts.…show more content…
There were 5 areas in this section. The insensitivity to base rates stated that we almost always ignore these even if there is false information provided. The insensitivity to sample size is the fact that we ignore what is presented to us, and do not take the sample size into account at all. The misconceptions of chance states that outcomes will be random, even if there is no valid statistical reason for it. The regression to the mean is us ignoring the fact that things can change over time. The example in the text was batting averages, and how they can widely differ over time. The conjunction fallacy is when we judge falsely that two items in a subset are more important than any one item. We tend to think the more descriptive label if more accurate than just a plain label. It seems simple but we feel that being more descriptive is the right thing to
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