Decision Tree Decision Analysis Case

This paper looks at the main issues faced by decision makers, analyses them, presents alternatives and makes recommendations based on the analysis.

A. In order to improve the current workflow in the plant, I recommend using the work stations layout tool whether through the Excel or POM program. This will help to show a clearer picture of the work flow that is present at Shuzworld, with allotting equal times in each work station. This will enable the company to find the shortest time to be used in each station for optimal performance and production of all shoes. Decision Analysis has been established to advance theory, application, and teaching of all aspects of decision-making methods.

This course is an introduction to decision making encountered in business and everyday life. The course covers selected tools in probability, statistics, economics, operations research, and operations management. We will apply these tools and principles to problems in financial management, marketing,

Strategic decisions require careful and purposeful skills of analysis, creativity, and informed problem solving. The best practice for decision making is identification, inventory, and intervention (Davenport, 2009). Identify the decision to be made for the organization, identify the factors that influence that decision (who, what, etc), and apply purposeful action to implement that decision. Decision-making tools can assist with the decision making process. Tools such as, Case-Based Decision Analysis, Information Aggregation Tools, cost-benefit analysis, gap analysis, or SWOT analysis. can help to evaluate the current state of the company and how to proceed with a decision for the future. Case-Based Decision Analysis tool focuses on data collection of past experiences, situations, and solutions. By tracking past results it can help to make more informed decisions in the future. Information Aggregation Tools uses external data that relates to a specific issue at hand, evaluates data that has served as solutions to such issues, selects supported alternatives, and, lastly, rates the compatibility of such proposed solutions to the issue at hand. A cost-benefit analysis is a type of strategic decision-making tool that assesses the cost and potential benefit associated with different courses of action and choosing

This approach allows for valuing real assets with some degree of operating flexibility, incorporating the value of the flexibility into the option price. It values the option to exercise but not the obligation to make future investments. It is based on the law of one price (the price of two portfolios with the same cash flows in every state of the world must be the same). Option value increases with great uncertainty (see Exhibit 3). The major uncertainties are Arundel Partners’ WACC and volatility of return on assets. A sensitive analysis shows the degree of changes with the changing uncertainties. The major disadvantage of this approach is that it often requires changes in business process. In Arundel Partners’ case, the terms and provisions in the contract will mitigate some of the disadvantages.

1) Determining the best payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the "best of the best" is the approach called:

The risk of own or rent comparison is identified as of minor impact and required no further action in this phase of the project. Moderate and major risks required more detailed analysis. The investment risks are identified as providing the greatest potential risks

The following explanation is structured based on the decision making model: Define the problem (A), Analyze Alternatives (B), Make a Choice (C), Take Action (D), Evaluate Result (E). For each of the steps in the decision-making process, I will list each situation in order (1-4) stated in Case 9, W-115.

Negotiations and decisions are act as key counterparts in every business. A clear definition as well as the recognition of core elements surrounding the decision making process is required to reach a suitable decision. These approaches purpose to be achieved clear concerns before a final decision-making. This paper will outline prospect theory and discuss the differences between prospect theory and expected utility theory. Following will be, as explanation of the biases and heuristics of the investment decision-making process.

Thinking critically and making decisions are important parts of today’s business environment. It is important to understand how the decision making process works and the steps involved. The nine steps of the decision making process are: identifying the problem, defining criteria, setting goals and objectives, evaluating the effect of the problem, identifying the causes of the problem, framing alternatives, evaluating impacts of the alternatives, making the decision, implementing the decision, and measuring the impacts. (Decision, 2007.) By using various methods and tools to assist in making important business decisions an individual can ensure the decisions they make will be as successful as possible. In this paper it

Decision making can be described as a process of making a decision or decisions, based on choices made amongst two or more competing course of actions. The ‘Decision making’ also requires making a define choice between two or more alternatives course of actions that are available.

This report analyses Oceanview Development Corporation’s decision in submitting a bid to purchase property that will be sold by a sealed bid. The findings and insights were based on the use of the expected value approach while taking into consideration the risk analyses of the selected recommendations. Comparing the expected values in both cases when market research is employed as well as when it is not employed, the optimum decision recommended would be that which has the highest expected value given the several states of nature (conditions).

The decision is to select an action among a number of actions that solves a given problem, that prevents a problem from happening, or that forces to apply new ideas for development. The need for understanding decision making process is increasing because the complexity of modern organizations is increasing, and because the modern organizations' effectiveness depends on the decisions made by the managers. The question is how to select the most appropriate action to solve the problem satisfying all stakeholders.

One area in which the application of decision analysis appeared to be successful is in the oil industry. The decision environment within which an oil company has to operate is characterized by limited information and complexity. Also, these decisions require intensive capital expenditures thus they are related to substantial risk (Hosseini, 1986). The case of Tomco Oil Corporation is a good example for this type of decisions made under uncertainty.

This report will discuss about the approach to rational decision making process. It discusses how an everyday problem faced by management can be tackled by using