Decision Making Bias

The challenge when working with others to make a decision is that we all have our own methods of coming to a conclusion. The rational decision-making model is comprehensive in the fact that it requires the decision maker to define the problem, identify criteria for making the decision, weight the criteria, develop alternatives, evaluate alternatives and finally select the best alternative (Robbins, S.P., Judge, T.A. 2009). The challenge with utilizing this method is the fact that most of the time in real world situations, facts are either limited or missed, time compression causes an oversight on all potential alternatives and people tend to choose the easier route to make decisions (Robbins, S.P., Judge, T.A., 2009). Intuition is a powerful tool, however it can also lead to quick and potentially bad decisions (Robbins, S.P., Judge, T.A., 2009). I can recall a conversation with a leader about an employee that made an error administering a medication. The manager had not spoken with the employee or

Decision making biases played a devastating role in the Deepwater Disaster. The biases that were present are; representativeness heuristic, overconfidence bias, confirmation bias and escalation of commitment bias. Based on my findings, to some extent, each of the following biases contributed to the Deepwater Disaster.

Decision-making in the workforce is a process of responsibilities used by upper management to implement, enforce rules, regulations, and maintain a successful environment. Decision-making implemented more effectively by making a plan, thinking it through, accepting more than one opinion and determining what is best. However, decision-making often utilized more effectively by opening doors of opportunities for a suggestion, question, discussion, and feedback. Although, more involvement helps improve understanding, utilize behavior skills and present opportunities for better communication. Everyday life consists of decision-making, the right decision may not always be applied, but ensure room for improvement and opportunity. Individuals approached decision-making in many different ways. As stated by (Jones, Graham, & Bateman, 2006) decision making is a procedure used to recognize a problem, weigh the alternatives and evaluate a solution in which, certain situations will require different approaches to become effective.

17. Environments exist when decision makers lack complete certainty regarding the outcomes of various courses of action, but they are aware of the probabilities associated with their occurrence

In terms of the anchoring bias, regularly revisit of the original decision based on the newly gathered data needs to be set up within the organization. Additionally, the decision maker should avoid the Confirmation Trap in which Bazerman and Moore (2009) argues that people tend to seek information that confirms their expectations and hypotheses. To recognize the bias, Mike Francis could

In the text, Kreitner and Kinicki (2013) states that decision making is one of the primary responsibilities of a manager, and the quality of one’s decisions can have serious consequences. As the title of this cause study shows Faulty Decision Making is the Cause of the Deepwater Horizon Disaster. Faulty decision making or lack of any decision making is the key to this disaster.

Two phenomena- hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence- illustrate why we can’t rely solely on intuition and common sense.

When humans make a decision, it often turns out to be “predictably irrational” (Ariely, 2009). They always deviate systematically from expected decision rather show an inclination towards a certain way of thinking. This consistency of behavioral or decision bias can be very helpful to identify consequences or outcomes in a different

Biases can be inherent for an individual and impact a decision that they are making or are involved in. The eight biases that can affect decision making skills are availability, representativeness, conformation, anchoring, overconfidence, hindsight, framing and commitment escalation. In the case of Deepwater Horizon, the biases that impacted the decision making were representativeness, overconfidence, hindsight and commitment escalation. Representativeness bias can be identified when individuals use data to forecast the chance that an event will occur when uncertainty is factored in. In this case, the individuals involved did not feel like the data collected showed that there was a high probability of an oil spill to occur based on previous

In the Deepwarter Horizon case, the workers from BP and Transocean discussed issues and made decisions jointly. Both of the companies ignored signs of trouble which led to catastrophic problems. Moreover, it is of my opinion the companies applied the garbage can model of decision making. Furthermore, the garbage can model suggest the organizations operate on a basis of inconsistent and imprecise preferences (). In addition, the organizations process are not often understood by workers, and they often work by trial and error (). More importantly, the garbage can model can sometimes result in unsuspected problems in which satisfactory solutions weren’t present ().

The failure of the O-Rings during Challenger’s launch ultimately resulted from the varying shortcomings made in the decision process which allowed the risk to be present. Groupthink played an influential role in dominating the process and naturally pushed the risk to the wayside. In the wake of the Challenger incident, many lessons regarding professional and decisional bias have been examined and regrettably noted as being very preventable through the use of more careful examination. While the errors made in the decisional process throughout the tenure of the project were made by many individuals, it is important to note that the subtle behaviors exhibited are all naturally occurring phenomenon within individuals. In the light of tragedy, it is very easy to blame the shortcomings of individuals to instill comfort within ourselves and to dismiss the actions of others as being completely ignorant. However, human behavior is the foundation of the decision making process and therefore carries with it imperfection. When minor effects are left unguarded and then coupled with a variety of pressuring restraints it becomes more reasonable to see why mistakes are made and why accidents

In the early sections of “Looking Up and Looking Around” Jackall seeks to explain the reasons behind inadequate decision making processes and ability. The circumstances and environments that cultivate ‘decision-making paralysis’ and a lack of individual decision making ability are explained. Numerous examples and reasons are outlined to communicate a manager’s fear of failure, reluctance to make decisions and inability to make effective decisions when required at all hierarchical levels. If a decision must be made, particularly for an unexpected situation or problem, there is a tendency to look up, at

Inadequate information, data, and knowledge. For rational decision-making to be accurate, reliable, and complete, information about various aspects of the problem under investigation is necessary. Possible future trends can be estimated with the help of such information. This facilitates rational decision-making. However, adequate and reliable information may not be available at the time of decision-making. As a result, the decisions may become defective or irrational or may prove faulty in the course of time. This is how decisions become irrational.

When people argue with decision analysis and its achievements they usually mention the story of DuPont, an American chemical company. It managed to successfully integrate risk and decision analysis functions to both operational and strategic levels. The company claimed that Desciison and Risk Analysis not only brought tangible benefits to the company, but also intangible, such as increased attention and commitment to actions (Krumm et Roll, 1992).

Yes, there were cognitive biases at Level 3 and other companies as well as the investors during 1997-2001. The biases were…