Decision Theory: a Brief Introduction

28334 Words Oct 13th, 2012 114 Pages
Decision Theory
A Brief Introduction

1994-08-19 Minor revisions 2005-08-23 Sven Ove Hansson Department of Philosophy and the History of Technology Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Stockholm

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Contents
Preface ..........................................................................................................4 1. What is decision theory? ..........................................................................5 1.1 Theoretical questions about decisions .........................................5 1.2 A truly interdisciplinary subject...................................................6 1.3 Normative and descriptive theories..............................................6 1.4 Outline of the following
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The demarcation of decisions.................................................................68 10.1 Unfinished list of alternatives ....................................................68 10.2 Indeterminate decision horizons ................................................69 11. Decision instability.................................................................................73 11.1 Conditionalized EU....................................................................73 11.2 Newcomb 's paradox ...................................................................74 11.3 Instability....................................................................................76 12. Social decision theory.............................................................................79 12.1 The basic insight ........................................................................79 12.2 Arrow 's theorem .........................................................................81 References ....................................................................................................82

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Preface
This text is a non-technical overview of modern decision theory. It is intended for university students with no previous acquaintance with the subject, and was primarily written for the participants of a course on risk analysis at Uppsala University in 1994. Some of the chapters