Defining Exit Polls And Opinion Polls

While the majority claim that taking a step to deport people is cruel and inconsistent with our legal value that undocumented immigrant strengthen our economy and country. Claim-makers use the polls because they offer feedback at the early stages in the process and to determine whether their claim is effective or not. Policymakers often base their decision on what the polls say. Public opinion overall there is little support to deport all those undocumented immigrants in the U.S. nonetheless survey in the past have found great support for building a barrier along the Mexican border and change the constitution. This form of public- opinion is often viewed as inaccurate because polls are formalized situation in which people know they are being solicited for analysis and this can affect what they are willing to

Public opinion polls come in a wide-set of different subjects and are good examples of inductive arguments that are seen and used in our day to day lives to measure the public’s views regarding a particular topic or topics done so by taking a non-biased survey/questions. This is an excellent example of inductive arguments, because the person or party/entity conducting these surveys, is looking to validate their argument and assumptions, or to provide a guarantee of truth in the concluding result. However, it is not simply easy to rely on “experts” and believe that the data from these polls they collect, are completely accurate and are not skewed from their own biases. Since a survey is an inductive generalization, a sample is taken from the target population from which a conclusion is drawn regarding the entire population.Which makes these inductive arguments fall into two categories: either weak or strong.

Best starts out the chapter explaining how public opinion is measured, Best specifically uses public polling as a means to measure public opinion (166-167). Best mentions that a small amount of people in a specific population, known as a sample, have their opinions taken in a poll format. Those polls’ results are then used to generalize the whole population (167).

We have come a long way from a time when only white, affluent, property owning males could vote. In terms of ‘voting rights’ it was a gradual expansion of the vote, which slowly began to expand to all whites, individuals once labeled slaves or ‘aliens’, African Americans, military personal and women. To vote in the United States, no longer do you need to pass a literacy test, but you must be a U.S citizen and at least 18 years old on Election Day. In addition, some states also require various periods of residency before voting is permitted. Furthermore some states restrict felons or those mentally incompetent to vote. In Massachusetts, for the first time, there was Early Voting. During this period, October 24th to November 4th, registered voters were allowed to cast their ballots. During this period of Early voting, I along with a group of classmates had the engaging opportunity to be an exit pollster. We decided to canvas much of the Boston area, with hopes of a ranging demographic. This hands-on experience, working with a team in carrying out the exit poll, allowed for a greater insight to the dynamics of election administration, a deeper understanding on the rights of voters and voter turn out, technique for attaining a random sample, the role of the interviewer and importance of survey design.

The title of the article is a little misleading because the polls that are misleading are the ones that need to “stop the polling insanity.” Will they? No. So, the point of the article is that it is up to the individual reading the polls to assess

I think it is also worth noting that Green and Palmquist use the NES poll data in their study which bring us back to the first question which is how to accurately measure partisanship? If question asked by pools can heavily change the result of studies we need to know what question to ask when we are measuring short term variance and when we are measuring long term variance. I think the Gallup poll might be useful to measure the short term variance in macro partisanship and the NES and GSS poll might be effecting when it comes to long term shifts in partisanship. However these article failed to discuss the polls in general and find if the interviewed population is representative of the US population. Abramson and Ostrom also briefly talked about the effect telephone poll can have on polls result but it was discussed in depth. In last week Alan S. Gerber and Donald P. Green found positive effect of personal contract on voting. Doing interviews for polls might have better result than telephone

This then leads into what is the sample size is too small and is not a great representation of the overall population. If the sample size is too small, it could lead to selection bias which is when the sample does a terrible job representing the actual ideologies of the population in that area. Push polling, which is asking questions in a way that gives the pollster the answer that is being sought out, is often another technique used to potentially skew the outcome. All of these are factors that could potentially be important when it comes to the outcome of the polls. Make sure to keep in mind that whenever a poll is taken there is always a way that someone/something can skew it to their

According to the article, small differences in methods between popular polls can result in large differences when voter commitment is still uncertain (Tackett, 2012). During this election, polls were a great source of information for voters to use in their decision making process. Bloomberg’s poll surveyed 1,002 adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for the full sample. This means that if the polls were conducted 100 times, the data would be within 3 points above or below the reported percentage in 95 of 100 surveys (Tackett, 2012).

Public opinion can be defined as the collective opinion of many people on some issue. When it comes to elections, party members attempt to estimate a candidate favorability by polling the public using different techniques such as: calling, online surveys, panels, and exit polls. However, when trying to get the statistically most accurate result, party member must be weary of biases like biased questions, undercoverage, and sampling bias.

If I was presented with all the facts, and knew all the backgrounds of each individual polled, gleaned each question, understood the diction, and tone of the pollster, I still would not be satisfied with the results. A lot of people accept what they read as factual, I am not one of those, I question and satisfy myself with my gleaned truths.

election to what they think the future will hold because of it. What is evident is that the polls

Elections happen all over the world in various countries on different scales. Some elections can be for the president of a country while others can be for city council members. With all elections come a voter turnout. Voter turnout can be measured in a number of ways. According to Fairvote, some ways to measure are by percentages of either the amount of eligible voters, registered voters, or by the total population that is old enough to vote in that designated area (Measuring Voter Turnout). The U.S. and Texas both have low voter turnouts compared to others and struggle to increase them.

It seems to me that we are just fascinated with polls. That almost everything is based on a poll, and they often base their opinions and views of the world on their results. Politicians do the same, but to a much greater extent. Most leaders will try to base their decisions largely on their poll numbers. I think that it is not right for them to base everything off poll. Polls are a way to make the voice of the individual citizen heard. Unfortunately, it is not simple. That reason is be causes that polls are not that accurate or reliable for many reasons. Some of those reasons are that; the samples are too small to represent the population, the result from the polls can be presented in a way that misleads many people, the result of the polls

Oftentimes these polls can be too heavily relied upon when attempting to determine who will be our next President of the United States, even if they are said to be based on the current opinion of the American public. An example that proves my statement is the case of the 1948 Presidential Election, where Harry Truman became our 33rd President of the United States over Thomas E. Dewey despite the fact that public opinion polls at the time predicted that Dewey would crush Truman in the election. More recent examples include, according to an article on the website usnews.com, “In 2012, his own campaign's polls, among others, predicted Mitt Romney, the Republicans' nominee, would defeat President Barack Obama for the presidency, but just barely.

In the book “Proofiness” by Charles Seife, he address many problems with the many different ways to find statistics. One problem was addressed in chapter 5: Electile Dysfunction. As with all counting or measuring, there is never going to be an exact and precise number. When elections are within 1 percent of each other, it is considered a fairly large margin compared to less than 1 percent when it comes to close races. Some ballots are terrible. This leads to accidental votes for the other candidate, voided votes, and a great inconvenience for the candidates that were meant to be voted for. Every single close election that has ever occurred was essentially decided by a coin flip because humans cannot possibly count with an accuracy greater than