Descalzo, Mary Philline T.
September 13, 2013
English 10 WFW1
Concept Paper Final Draft: “Demographic Winter and Its Effect on Society”
For years, people have in mind that the world’s population has been increasing annually. While it is true that a daily increment of 215,060 and yearly growth of 1.10% is happening on our world population of 7,174,592,903 (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, population Estimates, and Projections Sections), the demographic trend is actually changing in contrast to the beliefs of many. Historical events that occurred in the past, particularly the World Wars, have paved the way for the eradication of a large portion of mankind, but it also resulted to
…show more content…
Russia's birth rate fell from 2.4 in 1990 to 1.17 today - a decline of more than 50% in less than 20 years. Each year, there are more abortions than live births in the Russian Federation (Demographic Winter).
In U.S. alone, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is almost 3.5 in the early 1960s, then began declining sharply -- to below 3.0 in 1965, to about 2.5 (and temporarily holding steady) in the late 1960s, and down to about 1.8 by the mid-1970s. Hence, the TFR fell by almost half between the early 1960s and the mid-1970s. After a decade of stability at a level of about 1.8, the total fertility rate rose slowly after 1986, reaching 2.08 in 1990. It presently stands at a little over 2, just slightly below the replacement level of 2.11 (Fluctuating Fertility: The Baby Boom and the Baby Bust).
Japan’s TFR has continued to fall since dropping below 2.0 in 1975. It slumped to an all-time low of 1.26 in 2005. The number of babies born in the nation in 2012 fell by 13,705 from the previous year to hit a new low of 1,037,101 (Durden).
With such data on hand, we now ask: “what are the factors that led to demographic winter?” According to the documentary film Demographic Winter: a Decline of the Human Family, fertility decline is caused by (1) economic prosperity, (2) sexual revolution, (3) women in the labour force, (4) Divorce revolution, and (5) inaccurate assumptions.
As developed countries continue to rise in their economic status, a
Discuss the declining birthrate in Russia and other countries in the region. What do you think the impact of this decline can have on neighboring countries and regions? Are similar declines happening elsewhere? The declining birthrate is seen all throughout Russia and neighboring countries. A lot is due to many choosing to have less children and also the high mortality rate of younger men. It seems that Europe and the United States are also seeing a decline in the birthrate, but not as bad as
Pre-industrialization in the so called, first world countries, there were values of high birthrates. The industrialization in these MEDCs cause a drastic decrease in fertility in the countries affected. This started in Europe,
In Chapter 15: Aging and the Elderly, the U.S. birth rate has been falling for more than a century. It happens because children are more likely to survive into adulthood, and so couple have fewer children. As more women work outside the home, they choose to have fewer children. Greater material wealth and advances in medicine have raised living standards so that people benefit from better housing and more nutrition. The oldest segment of the U.S. population, is increasing rapidly and is already forty times greater than in 1900.
In 2000, “41% of births worldwide” (Shäfer, 1028) were
In the 1800s most families had about seven children, then in the industrial era the families had about three or four children. The reason that the average of children dropped in this era was due to couples waiting longer to get married or spacing the pregnancies out. One of the big causes of fewer children in this era was because of contraceptives. Contraceptives were just discovered and many couples realize that it was a very effective method. With families having fewer children their main concern was getting their children educated and have knowledge about the economy, so they would be successful in the real world. Education became more populated this time in history, about 71% of children ages five to eighteen went to school. Women became
However the Demographic Transition model also has its weaknesses some weakness would include the fact that the demographic transition model does not include the role of the government, some governments may put antenatal and prenatal operations in place to encourage the decrease or to increase the birth rate within these countries, therefore countries like China that are antenatal and have the one child policy put in place and countries like the UK which are prenatal and offer child benefits may show fluctuation of the birth rate in stages it should be decreasing or increasing in. Further more In stage four, the UK experienced a post-war baby boom where the birth rate should be steadily decreasing – this shows that the demographic transition model does not include the impacts of wars, natural hazards or migration either.
During the cold war era the life expectancy grew by about 15 years, however in the 1980’s the world saw a decline in life expectancy especially in the USSR falling from 70 years down to 53 years old(C&C 1040). Along with this came an uncertainty for population growth in developed and underdeveloped countries. For example, in China Emperor Deng established a one child policy, in Iran and other Islam dominate countries governments were urging families to space out their conceptions(C&C 1041).
People are living longer because of significant improvements to health care system that has occurred over a five-year period, a drop of individuals who smoke has resulted in a decline of people who suffer from smoking-induced conditions like lung and heart disease, the numbers of people who smoke have gone from 19 percent to 16 percent. Moreover, a fall in child and infant death rates by 20 percent from 2007 - 2012 has also added to increased life expectancy. Falling fertility rates (TFR) have also been declining which is also a cause of an ageing population. The fertility rate have been falling for an extended period, with TFR, being its highest in 1961 at 2.1 but since then it has gradually declined and in 1999 it was at its lowest of 1.75 and as 2014 was 1.80 and now in 2016 is
It is a widely known fact that the population of the world increases by a great factor every year. However, not many people know what exactly is causing this upsurge. In the past century, the population has radically grown. The main things increasing the world’s population are medical care and infant mortality rates because both have changed drastically over the past century.
Over the same period, the birth rate in China varied more significantly than in the US. It dropped to 5% from 1940 to 1945 before reaching the highest point of the whole line graph, 20%, in 1950. By contrast, 5 years later, the birth rate in China decreased rapidly by over 10%, falling to approximately 2% in
There are many key demographic indicators that make up each country. One of them is the crude birth rate. In Canada for example, the crude birth rate is 11 which is considered low. The crude birth rate is the number of live births per thousand of population per year. When this is compared to the world birth rate it is a little lower. According to the table provided the crude birth rate is a stable indicator. It is stable because it has not changed much in recent years and is pretty even to the region of Canada. Because it is stable, it is also a good environment to live in. The birth rate is low because in Canada there are higher standards of living, in addition to higher education levels. With the total fertility rate being low, that can come in the factor of the low birth rate from the last couple of years. 2.1 children per woman are required to replace the population in the absence of migration. Some key factors of why the fertility rate fell were for 3 costly events that affected a lot of countries. First in the 1930s it had a big decline due to the great depression. In the 1970s it also declined due to the energy crisis. The last major event was in 2011 and it was the Great Recession. With the Great Recession there were high unemployment rates. During the Great Depression period the total fertility rate was declining because there were many couples that used birth control to limit their family size.
As you can see, the population has been increasing rapidly over the last 10 years, very much so, due to the large amount of immigrants. Also due to the large amounts of immigrants, the fertility rates would probably increase because the most countries that the immigrants come from have very high fertility rates.
The hesitation that couples have and the higher use of contraceptives has also impacted this demographic transition. According to, Population Education “The rate of decline is dependent on economic and social factors at play- the quicker gains are made in areas such as education and gender equality, the faster birth rates decline” (Grover, 2014). It is easily noticeable that as couples choose to allow money to dictate the decisions they make, in particularly having a kid, the less births will
“The Census Bureau estimates there will be 315.1 million people living in the country on New Year’s Day, a 0.73 percent rise from last year’s estimate and 2.05 percent more than the most recent census count in April 2010. At the current pace, the nation’s population will grow by 7.3 percent during the decade, the lowest level since the 7.25 percent increase recorded between 1930 and 1940, per data compiled by Bloomberg”. U.S. continues to have slow rate of growth during their first decade, and economic downturn sine 1930s. Bloomberg blames the economy, because of abortion rate and its affecting the economy. According to the report provided by Census Bureau nation population was growing by 9.7 percent
Fertility rates and birthrates differ depending on social and demographic characteristics, such as age, race and ethnicity, income, and marital status. Between 2009 and 2010, there were decreased for all age groups under 40. Also, fertility rates differ by education and income. In 2008, women with the highest level of education had the highest fertility rate, college graduates had the next highest rate, followed by women with high school educations.