Disadvantages Of Scenario Planning

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Scenario Planning is a way for organizations to sensibly consider possible futures and to take appropriate decisions.

With the global economy developed, organizations have to live in a more complex and changeable environment, making decision according to various factors that could make a difference, such as technology, environment, regulation and policy etc. The ability to adapt changes and deal with future possibility is vital for organizations to survive in a world changes rapidly. However, traditional approaches to strategy may not be sufficient in such highly uncertain, intensive and complex competitive markets (Celeste Amorim Varum, 2010). Scenario planning is another tool that has gained increased attention during the last 20 years as an effective method for examining future
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Scenario planning first emerged for application to businesses in a company set up for researching new forms of weapons technology in the RAND Corporation in 1967(Thomas J. Chermack, 2002). We all know that future cannot be predicted even the weather forecast, which based on accurate data, is not that precise sometimes. Scenario planning provides a solution for organizations to develop in uncertainty by assuming various possibilities about future and help people to make a better decision or plan accordingly.
In my opinion, there are three advantages of scenario planning. Firstly, scenario planning can improve the decision making mechanism and activate the managing system, making the decision with a more scientific and democratic process. TAIDA™ is a well-tried model for scenario planning. Hundreds of scenario projects have been carried out on the basis of the model in the past decade (Mats Lindgren, 2003). TAIDA is short for five steps below: Tracking: trace changes and signs of threats and opportunities; Analyzing: analyze consequences of the changes and generate scenarios; Imaging: identify possibilities and create
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