Dividend Discount Model

Valuation is the estimation of an asset’s value, whether real or financial, based on variables perceived to be related to future investment returns, on comparison with similar assets, or, when relevant, on estimates of immediate liquidation proceeds (Pinto, Henry, Robinson, Stowe; 2010). Correct valuation of real assets can present challenges to financial analysts. Different models can be used to arrive at the closest estimate of value and yet certain issues will always arise. This case attempts to tackle two approaches in real asset valuation: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis and the issues surrounding such, as well as the Black-Scholes Model for Real Options. Questions to be addressed in the study are:

The five events are correlated and occurring over approximate five months from 18th August 2010 to 13th December 2010.

Week 1 – Introduction – Financial Accounting (Review) Week 2 – Financial Markets and Net Present Value Week 3 – Present Value Concepts Week 4 – Bond Valuation and Term Structure Theory Week 5 – Valuation of Stocks Week 6 – Risk and Return – Problem Set #1 Due Week 7* – Midterm (Tuesday*) Week 8 - Portfolio Theory Week 9 – Capital Asset Pricing Model Week 10 – Arbitrage Pricing Theory Week 11 – Operation and Efficiency of Capital Markets Week 12 – Course Review – Problem Set #2 Due

Our estimated cost of capital, 20.81%, is lower than Ricketts’ expected return, 30%-50%, thus the investment is worthy. However, it’s higher than other pessimistic members’ expected return, 10%-15%, making the decision more complex and requiring further valuation。

a. What risk-free rate and risk premium did you use to calculate the cost of equity?

The valuation process, in this case, requires us to estimate the short-run non-constant growth rate and predict future dividends. Then, we must estimate a constant long-term growth rate at which the firm is expected to grow. Generally, we assume that after a certain point of time, all firms begin to grow at a rather constant rate. Of course, the difficulty in this framework is estimating the short-term growth rate, how long the short-term growth will hold, and the long-term growth rate.

Solutions to Valuation Questions 1. Assume you expect a company’s net income to remain stable at $1,100 for all future years, and you expect all earnings to be distributed to stockholders at the end of each year, so that common equity also remains stable for all future years (assumes clean surplus). Also, assume the company’s β = 1.5, the market risk premium is 4% and the 20-30 year yield on risk free treasury bonds is 5%. Finally, assume the company has 1,000 shares of common stock outstanding. a. Use the CAPM to estimate the company’s equity cost of capital. • re = RF + β * (RM – RF) = 0.05 + 1.5 * 0.04 = 11% b. Compute the expected net distributions to stockholders for each future year. • D = NI – ΔCE = $1,100 – 0 = $1,100 c. Use the

After considering the operational improvements forecasted, we project Robertson’s free cash flows and compute the terminal value using the Gordon Growth Method; the implied share price is analyzed further in accordance to growth rate and discount rate.

This document is authorized for use only by Yen Ting Chen in FInancial Markets and Institutions taught by Nawal Ahmed Boston University from September 2014 to December 2014.

Second once Apple stabilized after year 2019, the prediction of growth is 3%, and Beta was projected to be .96. Again, by using the boundaries stated above: the (Ke), weight of equity/debt, and WACC were as follow 6.34%, 80%, 20%, and 5.63%. These numbers were somewhat similar to its high growth stage; therefore, signifying Apple is still a strong company once it stabilizes. Yet, another reason why Apple can provide such attractive returns. Conversely, finding the Terminal Value (Pt) of the company, which is the value of the company at a future year, projected the PV for stable growth, in this case it was 2020. The (Pt) was over $1 billion, yet again another reason why Apple creates a great investment opportunity. Moreover, by adding all of the PV, including the stable growth year, the intrinsic value of the firm is over $966 million and minus the current value of debt, Apple is still worth (value of equity) over $926 million. This equity divided the current number of shares outstanding; Apple’s intrinsic value of stock is $988.80 per share. By comparison the current stock price, which is $649.79 per share, the stock value is undervalued. Likewise, making (AAPL) a rewarding opportunity that must not be taken for granted.

In general the three-stage approach allows us to add complexity to the standard dividend discount models by enabling changing growth scenarios throughout the forecasting period: an initial period of higher than normal growth, a transition/consolidation period of declining growth and final a period of stable growth. The main assumptions are that the company on which we conduct the calculation study currently is in extraordinary strong growth phase. The time period with the extraordinary strong growth must be strictly defined and eventually be replaced with the declining growth assumption. Lastly, Capital Expenditures and Depreciation are expected to grow at the same rate as revenues. .

The objectives of this report is to provide an evaluation on the risk and return of Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd, using methods to calculate its share price and other financial figures. Firstly, the report will analyse and evaluate the stock’s beta (β), which according to Investopedia, “A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole”. The data used to evaluate beta is based on past trends and data from a Coca-Cola Amatil annual report. The report will also use the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to discount a rate of the stock whilst forecasting potential dividend growth rates in the future. The analysis will also include the use of the dividend discount model and method of comparable for overall company valuation. Finally, the report will provide a recommendation whether an investor should hold, buy or sell Coca-Cola Amatil stock.

Valuation model have not considered the existence of non-tradable shares. The dividend discount model valuation is the discounted value of the dividend per share to all stocks equally.

The EPS of the company is Rs. 15. The market rate of discount applicable to the company is 12%. The dividends are expected to grow at 10% annually. The company retains 70% of its earnings. Calculate the market value of the share using the Gordon’s model.

There are many theoretical and empirical results describing the decisions companies make in this area. At the same time, however, there is no generally accepted model describing payout policy. Moreover, empirical findings are often contradictory or difficult to interpret in light of the theory. In their seminal paper, Miller and Modigliani (1961) showed that under certain assumptions dividends are irrelevant; all that matters is the firm’s investment opportunities. Miller and Modigliani considered the case of perfect capital markets (no transaction costs or tax differentials, no pricing power for any of the participants, no information asymmetries or costs), rational behaviour (more wealth being preferred to less, indifference between cash payments and share value increases) and perfect certainty (future investments and profits are given). In real life, however, people seem to care about dividends. Lintner.s (1956) classical study on dividend policy suggests that dividends represent the primary and active decision variable in most situations. Lintner suggests a model of partial adjustment to a given payout rate.