Econometric Analysis of Capm

Week 1 – Introduction – Financial Accounting (Review) Week 2 – Financial Markets and Net Present Value Week 3 – Present Value Concepts Week 4 – Bond Valuation and Term Structure Theory Week 5 – Valuation of Stocks Week 6 – Risk and Return – Problem Set #1 Due Week 7* – Midterm (Tuesday*) Week 8 - Portfolio Theory Week 9 – Capital Asset Pricing Model Week 10 – Arbitrage Pricing Theory Week 11 – Operation and Efficiency of Capital Markets Week 12 – Course Review – Problem Set #2 Due

Fama and French’s three factor model attempts to explain the variation of stock prices through a multifactor model that includes a size factor and BE/ME factor in addition to the beta risk factor. Fama-French model essentially extended the CAPM (which breaks up cause of variation of stock price into systematic risk which is non-diversifiable and idiosyncratic risk which is diversifiable) by introducing these two additional factors. Fama and French find that stocks with high beta didn’t have consistently higher returns than stocks with low beta and this indicates that beta was not a useful measure under their model. Their model is based on research findings that sensitivity of movements of the size and BE/ME factor constituted risk, and

CAPM results can be compared to the best expected rate of return that investor can possibly earn in other investments with similar risks, which is the cost of capital. Under the CAPM, the market portfolio is a well-diversified, efficient portfolio representing the non-diversifiable risk in the economy. Therefore, investments have similar risk if they have the same sensitivity to market risk, as measured by their beta with the market portfolio.

This paper mainly explores the validity of the Fama-French Three Factors model during 2011-2015 by using 30 stocks which is from A-share stock market in China, in contrast to the results of Fama and French (1993) in U.S, there are some differences. Market risk premium has a significant in Chinese stock market, but for the factors SMB and HML, both of them are not as significant as the United States, but it still has a little marginal return. Meanwhile, we use Capital Assets Pricing Model to compare with Fama-French Three Factors

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a widely-used finance theory that establishes a linear relationship between the required return on an investment and risk. The model is based on the relationship between an asset 's beta, the risk-free rate (typically the Treasury bill rate) and the equity risk premium (expected return on the market minus the risk-free rate).

This summary provides a brief overview of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as an alternative method for estimating expected returns. This paper also discusses the positive and negative effects of CAPM along with the risks of Beta and why this model has its share of drawbacks and critics in the marketplace. The first section will cover the basics of CAPM including its flaws and rewards. Next, the risks of beta and the strengths and weaknesses are discussed in conjunction with its relevance to CAPM and why it’s important to investors who are willing to take greater risks. Finally, an application is provided to show how beta affects CAPM from a financial manager’s perspective.

Eugene Fama from the University of Chicago and Kenneth R. French from the Yale School of Management's were done a research on examining the validity of capital asset pricing model (CAPM). It was published in 1992; and well-known as The Fama-French three factors model (TFM).

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is an arithmetical theory that describes the relationship between risk and return in a balanced market. The Capital Assets Pricing Model was autonomously and simultaneously developed by William Sharpe, Jan Mossin, and John Litner. The researches of these founders were published in three different and highly respected journal articles between 1964 and 1966. Since its inception, the model has been used in various applications that range from public utility rates to corporate capital budgeting. However, the initial introduction of the model was characterized by suspicious view from the investment community. This was largely because CAPM apparently indicated that professional investment management was hugely a waste of time. Due to its implementation problems and shortcomings associated with its relation to Arbitrage Pricing Theory, Capital Asset Pricing Model has continued to face constant academic attacks.

“Higher risks lead to higher returns” is one of the basic concepts in the investment theory. Also, the CAPM, thought for decades at universities as one of the basic asset pricing models, supports it.

This report aims at implement two distinct approaches, which can indicate the expected return and risk of a two-stock portfolio, to generate a practical solution to risk-analyzing for stock-investing. The two approaches are Mean-Variance Approach and CAPM Approach. While we apply the Mean-Variance Approach to determine the expected return and standard deviation, we employ the CAPM approach to measure the beta and expected return of each stock. The calculations of the aforesaid mathematical characteristics will contain the weekly returns during a seven-year time period integrated with the ASX all ordinaries Accumulation Index as a substitute for the market index and Official Cash Rate (thereafter, OCR, which is the interest

In the literature review, the author states that the CAPM has been the most favoured asset pricing model used since the 1960s. The CAPM though, has been questioned and its misspecifications identified since the 1970s, as the CAPM was unable to explain the risk measure and returns difference.

As indicated by the case study S&P 500 index was use as a measure of the total return for the stock market. Our standard deviation of the total return was used as a one measure of the risk of an individual stock. Also betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. The variables were: total return for the stock as the dependent variable and independent variable is the total return for the stock. Since the descriptive statistics were a lot, only the necessary data was selected (below table.)

Fama & French (2004, p.36) confirms that “Ratios involving stock prices have information about expected returns missed by market betas”. The issue of evaluating a model that are based on assumptions that need to be fulfilled, Fama & French (2004, p.20) argues, is that it is hard to isolate whether the assumptions are violated or the model is invalid, in this case if the discrepancies of the CAPM model is due to bad pricing or bad asset pricing model.

The CAPM model was developed by Sharpe (1964) to explain how capital markets set share prices. (Pike and Neale) In result of research by Sharpe (1964), Litner (1965) and Black (1972) the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) states “the relationship between beta (measure of volatility on portfolios/assets) and expected returns is linear, exact, and has a slope equal to the expectation of the market portfolio excess return”. CAPM makes the assumption that markets are efficient therefore suggesting that operators within the market have rational expectations, this assumption leads us to the first weakness of CAPM (Vernimmen, 2011). However, when estimating the cost of capital, CAPM is seen to be preferred compared to other asset pricing models simply due to its simplicity. In a survey conducted by the Association for Financial Professionals (2011) it was found that when estimating the cost of capital 87% of all firms and 91% of publicly traded firms used CAPM.

According to early academic researches, CAPM seems to have some problems when examining assumptions and empirical testing. Researchers attempt to develop a new model by improving the weak points and make it more realistic which enable investors understand more about financial market situation. Bodie et al. (2014) state that multifactor model could provide better explanation of security returns. Merton (1973) develop ‘Intertemporal model’ to imply that by using beta as a risk measure alone might not yields efficient results in the real world. Therefore, he suggests that other factors could be involved in the calculation. It is clear that he suggests investors to consider not only market risk but also extra market source of risk. Moreover, he mentions that CAPM has a limitations on the economic way of thinking because there are two important factors which are income and many consumption of goods are not be considered. These two factors are changing over time and relative to price.