Effects of Business Cycles

The late 1990’s into the early 2000’s was a time of great economic success that took a turn for the worst as the war against terrorism began. In America, the economy was at its peak especially on Wall Street until September 11th 2001. The attacks that occurred on September 11th deeply affected America. The attacks caused the Dow to drop tremendously along with causing the recession to deepen. America was led into of the biggest government spending periods in a long time. The cost to fund the war along with to rebuild the economy held a toll on all Americans. America had to dig itself out of a hole. Unlike the economy, technology was on the rise. Many new inventions such as wireless internet, mobile devices, and new forms of social media were created.

go through cycles of expansion, recession and recovery. Monetary and fiscal policies can affect the timing and length of these cycles. In the expansion phase, the economy grows, businesses add jobs and consumer spending increases. At some point, known as

A nation’s economy plays a vital role in how a nation operates. The United States economy faces a large variety of problems in this paper; we will focus on 4 major economic problems, unemployment, inequality, federal debt, and the financial/credit market. All four issues are interconnected in some way with deep social and economic implications. These issues were emphasized during the Great Recession that hit the U.S. economy in 2007.In the following paper, we will look at each of the four topics individually as well as look at how each plays a significant role in one another’s overall impact on the U.S. economy as well as individuals in the United States. The United States plays a crucial role in the world economy, meaning that every issue and difficulty faced the United States economy has implications far outside the U.S., understanding how these issues relate to one another sheds insight into just how connected every area of the economy actually is.

During the recession period manufacturing, finance and real estate industries had experienced the most and lost many workers. Even the workers, who were able to keep their jobs often found themselves doing substantially more work for the same or lower pay. Often high-tech video cameras and

Before 9/11 no civilian ever expected or thought of a terrorist attack would occur at the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Virginia. On September 11, 2001, an Islamic extremist group called al-Qaeda, hijacked four airliners and performed multiple suicide attacks. The first two airliners were flown into the twin towers of the World Trade Center, the third hit the Pentagon, and the last airliner crashed in Pennsylvania as a result of the passengers fighting back against the terrorists. The aftermath of 9/11 caused a massive change in the economic, political and social aspects of not only the United States but other nations as well.

The recession of 2008 is also called the ‘Great Recession’, said to have begun in December 2007, and took a turn for the worse in September 2008, and it was a severe economic problem expanded globally. This recession affected the world economy, and is said to have been the worst financial disaster since the Great Depression. The decline in the Dow Jones this time was -53.8%. Since the official start of the recession in December 2007, and through June 2010 there have been about 2.3 million homes foreclosed in the United States. In 2012, the state with the most foreclosures in January alone was California, with 51,584 houses being repossessed. Unemployment during this collapse was 8.5%, and continued to increase to about 10% as of 2010. People’s reaction to this recession was a huge decrease in spending and borrowing from banks, but an increase in saving.

The events of 9/11 further set back an already fragile economy (Figure 2). It heightened uncertainty, shaken confidence, and caused a widespread pullback from economic activity. Equity prices fell sharply for several weeks and credit risk spreads widened. The main focus of the Federal Reserve in the first few days following the attacks was to reinstate the infrastructure of financial markets and to provide massive quantities of liquidity to the functioning of those markets. The enhanced economic fallout from the events of 9/11 led the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut the target federal funds rate through the end of the year. (Federal Reserve Board, 2002)

The Business Cycle is “…the "ups and downs" in economic activity, defined in terms of periods of expansion or recession” (Dr. Econ). Expansion is the period in which employment, production, sales and income increase. Likewise, the contrasting contraction is when the actions above decrease. In order to keep track of the fluctuations of the US’s business cycles troughs and peaks, the National Bureau of Economic Research was created. The NBER is comprised of a group of economic researchers currently led by president James Poterba. The members are usually specialized in the field of business-cycle research, and are chosen by the president. The NBER was founded in 1920 as a private non-profit “…non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.” (http://www.nber.org/info.html). The NBER dating committee was formed in 1978, and plays an important role in the US as an examiner of broad measures of economic activity, and the most reliable source of the beginning and end of recessions in the U.S. This is accomplished by gathering as much data on a given period of economic activity.

All of these factors have an enormous impact on my selected business (Barclays) as the economy goes from growth and decline. As well as many others, Barclays is majorly affected as it is in the financial industry. These different factors appear throughout what is called the ‘Business Cycle’. The cycle shows the fluctuation of the activity within the economy over a period of time and consists of 4 main stages; as well as many others,

Everybody in the United Stated was affected by the recession that began in December of 2007 and spanned all the way to June 2009. Even though the recession is over, many people are still being affected by it and have still not been able to recover from the great recession. “The recent recession features the largest decline in output, consumption, and investment, and the largest increase in unemployment, of any post-war recession”. Many people lost their jobs due to the recession and some of them are still having a hard time finding jobs and getting back on their feet. Businesses

Recession cycles are thought to be a normal part of living in a world of inexact balances between supply and demand. What turns a usually mild and short recession or "ordinary" business cycle into an actual depression is a subject of debate and concern. Scholars have not agreed on the exact causes and their relative importance. The search for causes is closely connected to the question of how to avoid a future depression, and so the political and policy viewpoints of scholars are mixed into the analysis of historic events eight decades ago. The even larger question is whether it was largely a failure on the part of free markets or largely a failure on the part of government efforts to regulate interest rates, curtail widespread bank failures, and control the money supply. Those who believe in a large role for the state in the economy believe it was mostly a failure of the free markets and those who believe in free markets believe it was mostly a failure of government that compounded the problem.

In the recovery, the economy is growing. It is commonly indicated by a bull market. The recovery is the increase in the rate of economic activity established by a moderate to low unemployment percentage, towering development, and swelling prices. The next phase of the business cycle is the peak. The peak is the most desired stage for it is the superior point of the cycle. During this stage, the increased consumer confidence translates into higher levels of business activity. The peak is, “When the economy is overheated, and is in a state of irrational exuberance,” (Inc.com) In other words, the peak is the point at which the economy is as robust as it can get. Following the peak in the business cycle is the recession. The recession is when the economy is on the decline and jobs are being lost, unemployment rates soars, and production is slowing. It identifies the end of a growth interval in the business cycle. Often,

This study uses time-series data from the CPS March data to investigate the effect of the business cycle from 2003 to 2014 on the wage differentials between females and males. The CPS is a monthly sample survey of approximately 60,000 households conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which can be considered as the primary source of labor force statistics for the population of the United States. This study also uses data from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) to get the state unemployment rate from 2003 to 2014. LAUS is a Federal-State cooperative effort that publishes monthly estimates of employment and unemployment for approximately 7,300 areas, including all states, countries, metropolitan areas, and cities with a population of 25,000 or more, by residence. Labor force data from the LAUS program follows the same CPS concepts and definitions used for the national labor force data. In particular, this study uses the seasonal adjustment monthly state unemployment rate, which eliminates the influences of weather, holidays, the opening and closing of schools, and other recurring seasonal events from economic time series.

The business cycle is the oscillation in financial action that an economy encounters over a timeframe. A business cycle is essentially characterized in terms of periods of development or subsidence. Amid expansions, the economy is developing in genuine terms, as prove by increments in indicators like business, industrial production, sales and individual earnings. Amid recessions, the economy is contracting, as measured by abatements in the above indicators. Development is measured from the trough (or base) of the past business cycle to the pinnacle of the present cycle, while recession is measured from the top to the trough. (n.g., What is the 'Business Cycle ', n.g.)

Timing of the business cycle is not predictable, but its phases seem to be. Many economists site four phases—prosperity, liquidation, depression, and recovery. During a period of prosperity, a rise in production leads to increases in employment, wages, and profits. Obstacles then begin to obstruct further expansion. Production costs can increase, helping create a rise in prices, and