Efficient Market Hypothesis

Capital markets provide a function which facilitates the buying and selling of long-term financial securities to increase liquidity and their value, Watson & Head (2013). Hence, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) explains the relationship that exists with the prices of the capital market securities, where no individual can beat the market by regularly buying securities at a lower price than it should be. This means that in order to be an efficient market prices of securities will have to fairly and fully reflect all available information, Fama (1970). Consequently, Watson & Head (2013) believe that market efficiency refers to the speed and quality of how share price adjusts to new information. Nevertheless, the testing of the efficient markets has led to the recognition of three different forms of efficiency in which explains how information available is used within the market. In this essay, the EMH will be analysed; testing of EMH will show that the model does provide strong evidence to explain share behaviour but also anomalies will be discussed that refutes the EMH. Therefore, a judgment will be made to see which structure explains the efficient market and whether there are some implications with the EMH, as a whole.

So according to the Efficient Market Theory it is impossible for any investor to “beat the market” that is earn more profit or get more return than what the market is actually offering. Therefore the investor can only earn greater profits on his investment if the investment portfolio includes a high proportion of risky investments that is those with higher standard deviations and betas but with a good capability of yielding high returns as well (Stephens, C.R., 2010).

As Chapter 10 questions, if further evidence continues to surface that capital markets do not always behave in accordance with the efficient market hypothesis, then should we reject the research that has embraced the EMH as a fundamental assumption? In this regard we can return to earlier chapters of this book in which we emphasised that theories are abstractions of reality. Capital markets are made of individuals and as such it would not (or perhaps, should not) be surprising to find that the

According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. Thus, portfolio managers should find it impossible to outperform the overall

Allocating the ownership of economy’s stock capital is the primary role of capital market. In an ideal market the price would provide accurate signals for allocation of resources. Ideal market is one in which firm’s production-investment decisions and investor’s decision regarding securities will depend on the assumption that the security prices fully reflect available information at any point in time. A market in which prices always “fully reflect” available information is called efficient.1

In this discussion, we won’t touch on any conventional wisdom of stock-picking to beat the market; rather, it’s about beating ourselves, having the gall to rise above the situation and applying the meta-mind to defeat our enemy within. Bruce Lee’s art of fighting without fighting may make sense here: We out-reason our own emotions, the worst enemy to ourselves. Once we can do that, we will beat the market without fighting it.

sider BACKGROUND Efficient market theory examines how accurately stock prices signal resource allocation alloc and fully reflect all available information. Fama (1970) introduced the efficient market hypothesis stating there are three forms of efficiency: weak, semi strong, and strong. A market semi-strong, that incorporates all historical information is said to be weak form efficient, while one that responds to all publicly available informatio is semi-strong efficient. In a semiinformation -strong efficient market, prices instantly change to reflect publicly available information. A strong form market, strong responds to all information, both public and private. The hypothesis claims that achieving above average returns on a risk adjusted basis is impossible (Fama 1970). (Fama, The lowest level of market efficiency, weak form, states that the market only reacts to historical information. This means that no one can earn above normal returns based on published historical information; however, the market does not quickly react to new public or private information. It may be possible then, in a weak form efficient market, to obtain abnormal returns form using either new publicly available or private insider information (Fama 1970). (Fama, A semi-strong form market is more efficient that a weak form, as it reacts to publicly strong available new information quickly and share prices adjust to reflect the market’s reaction. share Obtaining

The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the well-known methods for measuring the future value of stock prices. According to this hypothesis, the market is efficient if its prices are formed on the basis of all disposable information. According to EMH if there is a possibility to predict the future price of shares, that is the first sign of an inefficient market.

When establishing financial prices, the market is usually deemed to be well-versed and clever. In a stock market, stocks are based on the information given and should be priced at the accurate level. In the past, this was supposed to be guaranteed by the accessibility of sufficient information from investors. However, as new information is given the prices would shift. “Free markets, so the hypothesis goes, could only be inefficient if investors ignored price sensitive data. Whoever used this data could make large profits and the market would readjust becoming efficient once again” (McMinn, 2007, ¶ 1). This paper will identify the different forms of EMH, sources supporting and refuting the EMH and finally

The efficient market hypothesis states that financial markets are profitable and that the prices in the stock market already embed all familiar information regarding a stock or other security and that the prices adjust quickly to new information which includes current and future expectations about a stock. It further explains that if all needed information concerning the investment is known, it will be difficult for any investor to outperform the market since he/she will be working with the same information as everyone else. Also, that it is impossible to consistently beat the market by stock-picking.

Efficient Market Hypothesis has been controversial issues among researcher for decades. Until now, there is no united conclusion whether capital markets are efficiency or not. In 1960s, Fama (1970) believed that market is very efficient despite there are some trivial contradicted tests. Until recently, both empirical and theatrical efficient market hypothesis was being disputed by behavior finance economist. They have found that investor have psychological biases and found evidences that some stocks outperform other stocks. Moreover, there are evidences prove that market are not efficient for instance financial crisis, stock market bubble, and some investor can earn abnormal return which happening regularly in stock markets all over the world. Therefore, the purpose of this essay is to demonstrate that Efficient Market Hypothesis in stock (capital) markets does not exist in the real world by proofing four outstanding unrealistic conditions that make market efficient: information is widely available and cost-free, investor are rational, independent and unbiased, There is no liquidity problem in stock market, and finally stock prices has no pattern.

The strong form of the EMH: Suggests that all information (public and private) is fully reflected in asset prices. This means that not even insider information can be used to beat the market. Therefore the only way to beat the market is by luck and chance only. It can be noted that all three versions of EMH indicate a role for passive management and no role for active management. As competition makes sure that any new information is reflected in stock prices.

Market efficiency requires that security prices react immediately in an unbiased way to the receipt of new information (Robert Shiller S1998). In other words, an efficient capital market is one in which stock prices fully reflect available information. In addition, there are three conditions for market efficiency; information flows freely, market is composed of rational investors where all competing against each other with the objective of maximizing wealth and there is no market imperfections. In efficient market, investors actively compete in the market based upon perceived mispricing derived from an analysis of

The efficient market, as one of the pillars of neoclassical finance, asserts that financial markets are efficient on information. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that there is no trading system based on currently available information that could be expected to generate excess risk-adjusted returns consistently as this information is already reflected in current prices. However, EMH has been the most controversial subject of research in the fields of financial economics during the last 40 years. “Behavioural finance, however, is now seriously challenging this premise by arguing that people are clearly not rational” (Ross, (2002)). Behavioral finance uses facts from psychology and other human sciences in order to

Efficient-market hypothesis also states that it is impossible for investors to consistently out-perform the average market returns, or in other words, “beat the market”, because the market price is generally equal to or close to the fair value (Fama, 1965). It is impossible, therefore, for investors to earn higher returns through purchasing undervalued stocks. Investors can only increase their profits by trading riskier stocks (http://www.investopedia.com/). However, empirically speaking, there is a large quantity of real financial examples to support that stocks are not always traded at their fair value. On Monday October 19, 1987, the financial markets around the world fell by over 20%, shedding a huge value in a single day (Ahsan, 2012). It serves as example that market price can diverge significantly from its fair value. In addition, Warren Buffett has